• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Wintry Dec 8-10th Winter Storm

The LOWEST snow output on the 6z GEFS is 12" for Greensboro. 7 members has 2 feet or more! Wow! I'm saving these.
KGSO_2018120606_gefs_snow_384.png
 
Things to watch out for:

Negative

1) NW trend (suppressive heights trending less) and/or low amping up more
2) HP weaker and or delayed
3) Warm nose undermodeled
4) Precip moving in late, after max afternoon heating

Positive

1) CAD undermodeled
2) Can’t think of anything else

Personally, based on experience, I’d give all of those things a good chance of verifying. I’m counting on the CAD being undermodeled to offset the opposing negative factors in order to have a major winter storm (wintry mix) here. Trends should show themselves today and tomorrow.
 
charlotte and raleigh, temper your expectations now if you love snow. sleet and an icy mix is likely but the nam is already showing sleet and rain and has jumped ship from the thumping of snow the euro is showing. even the gfs soundings have regressed for clt and history tells you it only gets worse from here. i believe someone said there has not been a 10"+ snowstorm in CLT in december since the 1890s, and that's likely for a reason. fully expecting rain and sleet and minimal if any snow in clt unless the backend over performs.
 
Rain Cold said:
Things to watch out for:

Negative

1) NW trend (suppressive heights trending less) and/or low amping up more
2) HP weaker and or delayed
3) Warm nose undermodeled
4) Precip moving in late, after max afternoon heating

Positive

1) CAD undermodeled
2) Can’t think of anything else

Personally, based on experience, I’d give all of those things a good chance of verifying. I’m counting on the CAD being undermodeled to offset the opposing negative factors in order to have a major winter storm (wintry mix) here. Trends should show themselves today and tomorrow.
Click to expand...
I think the models are already underplaying the weaker HP for us, so the output on that might be legit (let's hope that's as bad as it gets). LOL
 
DopplerWx said:
charlotte and raleigh, temper your expectations now if you love snow. sleet and an icy mix is likely but the nam is already showing sleet and rain and has jumped ship from the thumping of snow the euro is showing. even the gfs soundings have regressed for clt and history tells you it only gets worse from here. i believe someone said there has not been a 10"+ snowstorm in CLT in december since the 1890s, and that's likely for a reason. fully expecting rain and sleet and minimal if any snow in clt unless the backend over performs.
Click to expand...

The NAM is often pretty unreliable after 48-60 hours on specifics however, I'd give this at least another 5 runs or til about tomorrow morning or afternoon before getting concerned about how its handling this against global NWP.
 
Your not going to see a nw trend with this storm. You may however see a nw trend with rain snow line. Everyone sitting on the fringes needs to understand that it comes down to timing and placement of the hp building in, arrival of precip (watch that finger band that always shows up earlier than modeled) and the exact track of the 850 low. Key is to watch the hp postion. That will be what causes the see saw back n forth swings today.
 
Rain Cold said:
Things to watch out for:

Negative

1) NW trend (suppressive heights trending less) and/or low amping up more
2) HP weaker and or delayed
3) Warm nose undermodeled
4) Precip moving in late, after max afternoon heating

Positive

1) CAD undermodeled
2) Can’t think of anything else

Personally, based on experience, I’d give all of those things a good chance of verifying. I’m counting on the CAD being undermodeled to offset the opposing negative factors in order to have a major winter storm (wintry mix) here. Trends should show themselves today and tomorrow.
Click to expand...
As long as it doesn't become too amped and pull poleward, the only positive (CAD undermodeled) can overcome the rest
 
Here could be the fly in the ointment for big totals. SLEET. Hopefully we can get a good handle on the column profile today. In the back of my mind I'm thinking that some sleet wouldn't be a bad thing to keep me from losing power...
 
Webberweather53 said:
The NAM is often pretty unreliable after 48-60 hours on specifics however, I'd give this at least another 5 runs or til about tomorrow morning or afternoon before getting concerned about how its handling this against global NWP.
Click to expand...

Weren't a lot of people praising the NAM yesterday when it was showing super cold temps and lots of snow?
 
Webberweather53 said:
The NAM is often pretty unreliable after 48-60 hours on specifics however, I'd give this at least another 5 runs or til about tomorrow morning or afternoon before getting concerned about how its handling this against global NWP.
Click to expand...
Right now, we’re just seeing oscillations with various guidance...a step colder, a step back warmer, etc. Noting how things trend over the next 24-48 hours should tell the tale on who gets a major, mostly frozen storm, even if the exact rain/snow line will still be difficult to pin down.
 
LovingGulfLows said:
Weren't a lot of people praising the NAM yesterday when it was showing super cold temps and lots of snow?
Click to expand...

The NAM is often pretty good in handling CAD against other global NWP models and it's consistently had a deeper more extensive dome extending into the midlands of SC and NE GA which is more likely to verify but determining p-type distributions and evolution locally it's still often pretty squirrely at this range
 
packfan98 said:
Here could be the fly in the ointment for big totals. SLEET. Hopefully we can get a good handle on the column profile today. In the back of my mind I'm thinking that some sleet wouldn't be a bad thing to keep me from losing power...
Click to expand...

You watch and see if Randolph County outperforms Chatham/Wake. Being one to 2 counties west makes a difference. Hate you have to be in southern Randolph though. Trinity/Archdale a better location. But Randolph will fare better.
 
packfan98 said:
Here could be the fly in the ointment for big totals. SLEET. Hopefully we can get a good handle on the column profile today. In the back of my mind I'm thinking that some sleet wouldn't be a bad thing to keep me from losing power...
Click to expand...

I'd probably go 6-12" in the Triad and for most east of the mountains that have the best thermal profiles just based on the potential for significant mixing with sleet. The southern mountains are the only area I'd be confident enough for 12+
 
You know even if you get a couple of inches of snow with sleet and freezing rain, that is still a big deal here and will be a high impact event.
 
Avalanche said:
You watch and see if Randolph County outperforms Chatham/Wake. Being one to 2 counties west makes a difference. Hate you have to be in southern Randolph though. Trinity/Archdale a better location. But Randolph will fare better.
Click to expand...
I'm in the NW part of the county just below Archdale. We usually do pretty well. Take a blend between Asheboro and Greensboro usually.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top