Wintry Dec 8-10th Winter Storm

[hikingtheappalachians]

You can find the maps of hires RPM, 12km RPM, and DeepThunder (ibm's new model) at modellab.wsi.com

Is that behind a paywall?

 

[cg2916]

6Z NAM has started to run. It'll be on time tonight.

 

[Webberweather53]

The front-end thump being modeled with this storm is even more impressive than what I was seeing in NWP before Feb 2014... Yikes lol

 

[Meteorologist1999]

The front-end thump being modeled with this storm is even more impressive than what I was seeing in NWP before Feb 2014... Yikes lol
View attachment 8597

Did we get some front end thump snow in the midlands from the Feb 2014 storm.

 

[$alt]

Did we get some front end thump snow in the midlands from the Feb 2014 storm.

It was more of a major ZR & Sleet storm. I believe it ended as some light snow.
In my yard, we had so much sleet, it looked like it had snowed though. It was absolutely ridiculous. Probably over 2 inches or so.

 

[Webberweather53]

Did we get some front end thump snow in the midlands from the Feb 2014 storm.

There wasn't much but you were forecasted to get a big ice storm and instead ended up seeing more of a sleet fest with some ZR thrown in

 

[Webberweather53]

It was more of a major ZR & Sleet storm. I believe it ended as some light snow.
In my yard, we had so much sleet, it looked like it had snowed though. It was absolutely ridiculous. Probably over 2 inches or so.

Even though the actual air temperatures may not be as impressive, the cold air dam w/ this storm is even stronger than the Feb 2014 event

 

[hikingtheappalachians]

February 13 2014 was one of many depressing busts the past few years in North ATL lol. I think I was supposed to get 4-6"+ of snow, instead got like an inch of sleet and then got dry-slotted for the wrap-around. ATL airport 50 miles to the south got 2 inches more...

 

[cg2916]

EPS took pretty much everyone across the board down an inch or so. Still looks great.

 

[Meteorologist1999]

EPS took pretty much everyone across the board down an inch or so. Still looks great.

Did it shift the snow further south?

 

[Webberweather53]

Here's the overnight 0z EPS. Been noticing the 0z suites the last few days have taken a step back while the 12z suites take an even bigger leap forward, I wouldn't consider this a new trend per say. In another 24-36 hours or so, these ensemble runs should carry less weight in a forecast anyway because they're not properly dispersed inside 48 hours or so.

 

[Meteorologist1999]

Here's the overnight 0z EPS. Been noticing the 0z suites the last few days have taken a step back while the 12z suites take an even bigger leap forward, I wouldn't consider this a new trend per say. In another 24-36 hours or so, these ensemble runs should carry less weight in a forecast anyway because they're not properly dispersed inside 48 hours or so.
View attachment 8598

The 2 Inch mark is ever so slightly creeping to Columbia.

 

[Meteorologist1999]

Who’s up for the Nam??

 

[PEA_RIDGE]

Who’s up for the Nam??

i am .. im at work until 0630

 

[Meteorologist1999]

Some new data should be in these 6z runs so we shall see.

 

[$alt]

What in the.. NAM looks totally different with Low placement and even the precip @ 42 vs 00z.

 

[Webberweather53]

Precipitation/virga already trying to overspread Alabama and Georgia by Friday night on this run of the NAM. Seen so many overrunning events like this (& as was alluded to by others earlier) where the initial burst of precipitation on the north side of the precip shield is more intense, more expansive than forecast, and comes sooner than modeled.

 

[Meteorologist1999]

What in the.. NAM looks totally different with Low placement and even the precip @ 42 vs 00z.

Is it further south and less cold out west?

 

[Fountainguy97]

What in the.. NAM looks totally different with Low placement and even the precip @ 42 vs 00z.

It’s just faster than 00z.

The back end is a bit different but not that much.

 

[PEA_RIDGE]