DLI4SCwx
Member
Gonna be time to start focusing more so on short range models vs the globals very soon.
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Wintry Dec 8-10th Winter Storm
- Thread starter SimeonNC
- Start date
SEE HIGHLIGHTED TEXT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1047 PM CST WED DEC 5 2018
.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
THROUGH TONIGHT.
A VERY COLD NIGHT ON TAP AS A SURFACE HIGH CENTER SHIFTS INTO THE
AREA FROM THE WEST. MOS GUIDANCE HAS COME IN COLDER AND LOWERED
MOST AREAS A FEW DEGREES, WITH WIDESPREAD LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S.
SURFACE WINDS WILL WEAKEN QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET, WITH CALM
CONDITIONS BY 9 PM IN MOST AREAS.
58/ROSE
.LONG TERM...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
***UPDATED FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AND MONDAY.
AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS LONG RANGE DISCUSSION, RAIN CHANCES HAVE
BEEN INCREASED AND EXPANDED EASTWARD ON FRIDAY. A FAST MOVING
ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN QUICKLY INTO NORTH
ALABAMA ON FRIDAY, AND COULD SEE AMOUNTS OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF
AN INCH. DO NOT EXPECT ANY WINTRY MIX WITH THE ONSET OF THE RAIN,
AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING IN THE
NORTHWEST COUNTIES, AND A WARM NOSE ALOFT WILL ALSO KEEP
PRECIPITATION IN THE LIQUID FORM.
GFS AND ECMWF MODELS HAVE REVERSED COURSE WITH REGARD TO COLD AIR
ADVECTION ON BACK SIDE OF UPPER LOW. THE GFS IS NOW COLDER WITH
RESPECT TO 1000-850MB THICKNESS VALUES AND THE ECMWF IS WARMER.
OVERALL TREND WILL BE FOR THE LOWER THICKNESS VALUES, AT LEAST
THOSE LOW ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A WINTRY MIXTURE, WILL BE LOCATED OVER
FAR WEST ALABAMA MONDAY MORNING. THE LOWER THICKNESS VALUES WILL
ADVECT EASTWARD DURING THE DAY. MAIN CHANGE TO FORECAST WAS TO
KEEP PCPN ALL RAIN EAST OF I-65 MONDAY MORNING, TRANSITIONING TO A
RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE IN THE AFTERNOON. EVEN THOUGH FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MAINLY SNOW FOR AREAS WEST OF I-65 IN THE
AFTERNOON, THE MOISTURE LAYER IS SHALLOW AT THAT TIME AND
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING, SO ANY SNOW
WOULD LIKELY MELT UPON IMPACT. BY THE TIME THE COLDER AIR MASS
SHIFTS INTO EAST ALABAMA, THE DEEPER MOISTURE IS LIFTING OUT, AND
OVERLAP OF PCPN WITH THE COLDER AIR IS NOT IN PHASE.
https://nwschat.weather.gov/p.php?pid=201812060447-KBMX-FXUS64-AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1047 PM CST WED DEC 5 2018
.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
THROUGH TONIGHT.
A VERY COLD NIGHT ON TAP AS A SURFACE HIGH CENTER SHIFTS INTO THE
AREA FROM THE WEST. MOS GUIDANCE HAS COME IN COLDER AND LOWERED
MOST AREAS A FEW DEGREES, WITH WIDESPREAD LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S.
SURFACE WINDS WILL WEAKEN QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET, WITH CALM
CONDITIONS BY 9 PM IN MOST AREAS.
58/ROSE
.LONG TERM...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
***UPDATED FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AND MONDAY.
AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS LONG RANGE DISCUSSION, RAIN CHANCES HAVE
BEEN INCREASED AND EXPANDED EASTWARD ON FRIDAY. A FAST MOVING
ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN QUICKLY INTO NORTH
ALABAMA ON FRIDAY, AND COULD SEE AMOUNTS OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF
AN INCH. DO NOT EXPECT ANY WINTRY MIX WITH THE ONSET OF THE RAIN,
AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING IN THE
NORTHWEST COUNTIES, AND A WARM NOSE ALOFT WILL ALSO KEEP
PRECIPITATION IN THE LIQUID FORM.
GFS AND ECMWF MODELS HAVE REVERSED COURSE WITH REGARD TO COLD AIR
ADVECTION ON BACK SIDE OF UPPER LOW. THE GFS IS NOW COLDER WITH
RESPECT TO 1000-850MB THICKNESS VALUES AND THE ECMWF IS WARMER.
OVERALL TREND WILL BE FOR THE LOWER THICKNESS VALUES, AT LEAST
THOSE LOW ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A WINTRY MIXTURE, WILL BE LOCATED OVER
FAR WEST ALABAMA MONDAY MORNING. THE LOWER THICKNESS VALUES WILL
ADVECT EASTWARD DURING THE DAY. MAIN CHANGE TO FORECAST WAS TO
KEEP PCPN ALL RAIN EAST OF I-65 MONDAY MORNING, TRANSITIONING TO A
RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE IN THE AFTERNOON. EVEN THOUGH FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MAINLY SNOW FOR AREAS WEST OF I-65 IN THE
AFTERNOON, THE MOISTURE LAYER IS SHALLOW AT THAT TIME AND
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING, SO ANY SNOW
WOULD LIKELY MELT UPON IMPACT. BY THE TIME THE COLDER AIR MASS
SHIFTS INTO EAST ALABAMA, THE DEEPER MOISTURE IS LIFTING OUT, AND
OVERLAP OF PCPN WITH THE COLDER AIR IS NOT IN PHASE.
https://nwschat.weather.gov/p.php?pid=201812060447-KBMX-FXUS64-AFDBMX
Snowflowxxl
Member
FV3 was not quiet as good as 18z but still a good run.
0z Euro is about to crush some dreams or make some happy.
Weenies crashed the site. Ukie looks good. Angle of cold push different?
I'll post this here since most activity is here:
Basically, we are going to need an upgrade, that's why the server is acting up.
Code:
[Thu Dec 06 00:26:22.650136 2018] [mpm_prefork:error] [pid 14348] AH00161: server reached MaxRequestWorkers setting, consider raising the MaxRequestWorkers settingBasically, we are going to need an upgrade, that's why the server is acting up.
Avalanche
Member
Thats going to have to be some special HP to keep thermal profiles good enough to support those clown maps. Wish it were true, but...
Freaked out. Site went down
just don’t want to fall out of the “core” JB was talking about. Might get fringed by snowmageddon
Hold it together for the most important Euro run of the day! I’m giving all she’s got captain!
AMwx crashed now
Snowflowxxl
Member
Could we make it member only to reduce traffic?
Imagine if both crashed at the same time. What would we do ?
Watch TWC
Snowflowxxl
Member
Its happening
Round Oak Weather
Member
I just got a inch or two of backside snow if that rightWhat the heck? No good? Well maybe you didn't get 50 inches so y'all can settle for 33 inches
Avalanche
Member
SD is loving thatWhat the heck? No good? Well maybe you didn't get 50 inches so y'all can settle for 33 inches