In NW NC, the 0z CMC is obviously playing for different stakes.
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Wintry Dec 8-10th Winter Storm
- Thread starter SimeonNC
- Start date
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
RAH will probably have sunny and 75
John1122
Member
Earlier today the WPC was going with the NAM/EURO/CMC/FV3 as their model blend with less weight given to the GFS/UKIE. The GFS seems to be continuing the issue it's had for the last 24 hours of being too progressive with the track of the low and sliding it out. WPC specifically mentioned that as the reason they were giving it less weight and they also mentioned that it's a GFS bias.
They are still calling for 1-2 inches in the Triad and mainly expecting a rain event here. They haven't really taken the latest model runs into consideration yet which show all snow for most of Sunday.
Jessy89
Member
Gsp national weather service calling for rain and sleet in upstate north of 85 lol
this doesnt look good at all
Snownut
Member
Avalanche
Member
GRight after the “ there’s gotta be more precip further west, with the strength of that low” talk!
Cloudy with rain and 39 degrees for Sunday with rain and a wintry mix nw of the triangle. Wral
Philstorm91
Member
I hope that if this does turn into an icy mess for places like Atlanta that officials will warn the public in time and avoid some of the gridlock that occurred last time. At least this won't be occurring during the work week. I have noticed that NWS disco's seem to generally be taking the magnitude of the storm pretty seriously.
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Brick Tamland
Guest
So, what criteria are folks like RAH and WRAL using for their forecasts that are so different from what most of the models have been showing all day?
Storm5
Member
They are not looking at clown maps to make their forecast ...
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Kylo
Member
Recent history.
Ground temps don't change swiftly. And it's been a cold three weeks really.
Kylo
Member
Newfoundland low ain’t messing around.
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
So, what are they using? What other factors can they see right now that would say the models are wrong?
That high temperature is going to need to be adjusted downward to 34-36 based on recent model runs. That projected high is about 4-6 degrees warmer than nearly all of the models. NWS RAH still expects a changeover to rain by 10am Sunday, but the recent models indicate snow well into Sunday afternoon or evening.
ATLwxfan
Member
Experience,climatology, appreciation of individual models strengths/weaknesses. Some will say meteorology not modelology.
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The Unknown
Member
What happened
What is the Ukmet showing?
