Wintry Dec 8-10th Winter Storm

[Storm5]

Well, time to give some stuff away !


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[scroback]

I’ve seen this enough times to know not to get sucked in by the NAM. Columbia friends, I suggest you don’t get your hopes up.

However, could this be more accurate in this case due to the NAM having a better hold on temp profiles whereas in other cases where Columbia has been on the edge the NAM overestimated the extent of precipitation (which won’t be an issue with this storm)


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Interestingly enough with an upgrade that was implemented in the spring of 2017, the NAM no longer has a moist bias. In fact I've seen it drier than the GFS at times wrt to low level moisture/QPF

 

[Brick Tamland]

NAM dropping the cold air hammer on NC.

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

ICON finally trying to get a clue.

 

[TheBatman]

I take my chances with that look any day. Even if we a just 1-2 degrees cooler. Boom!!!
You could see a nice 3-6 inches in northern miss, ala, and ga. Plus southern tenn..

 

[accu35]

Nam 3km has the low even further south

 

[Snowflowxxl]

I just fainted! ATL is cancelled! Ice rink!

 

[deltadog03]

To hell with that, the lead energy is closed off near Memphis . That’s a great sign for Arkansas Tennessee and extreme northern miss and Alabama like near the northern boarders

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Look at the confluence in NE. This has to dig ESE or SE a well .IF that is right in NE that ULL should push SE .

 

[Natedogg25]

Could the wedge be strong enough to push down in the most eastern counties of AL?

 

[ColaSnow]

I’ve seen this enough times to know not to get sucked in by the NAM. Columbia friends, I suggest you don’t get your hopes up.

However, could this be more accurate in this case due to the NAM having a better hold on temp profiles whereas in other cases where Columbia has been on the edge the NAM overestimated the extent of precipitation (which won’t be an issue with this storm)

Agree with your first quote.

Re: your latter quote.... Isn't this timeframe considered to be the NAM's wheelhouse?

 

[Snowfan]

Could the wedge be strong enough to push down in the most eastern counties of AL?

I don't think so.

 

[WxWatch]

I think it more ice.

It's actually a mix. I just checked the sounding for ATL. 850 temp from 12km NAM has it at 0.7c (about 33f) There is a warm layer above 850mb. Temps there are 3.2c (37f) but it's a shallow layer. So, some area's will get a mix. It all depends on those temp profiles which I think will vary.

 

[Snowmageddon]

Guys....I am a newbie still trying to learn....does Mcdonough, GA get in on the ice skating from this NAM run or even snow/sleet?

 

[JLL1973]

Nam showing 4-6 inches literally just s few miles north of me. That's a tough pill to swallow

 

[RollTide18]

To hell with that, the lead energy is closed off near Memphis . That’s a great sign for Arkansas Tennessee and extreme northern miss and Alabama like near the northern boarders

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Just looking out for Central Alabama lmao trust me if I could travel anywhere this weekend it would be Winston-Salem.

 

[farleydawg792]

NAM Sounding for Athens 12z Sunday.

 

[Snowflowxxl]

Guys....I am a newbie still trying to learn....does Mcdonough, GA get in on the ice skating from this NAM run or even snow/sleet?

Not yet, but still have 3 days to trend better.

 

[$alt]

I just checked soundings and this map is accurate for key areas.

 

[MSnowAtl]

It's actually a mix. I just checked the sounding for ATL. 850 temp from 12km NAM has it at 0.7c (about 33f) There is a warm layer above 850mb. Temps there are 3.2c (37f) but it's a shallow layer. So, some area's will get a mix. It all depends on those temp profiles which I think will vary.

Rain and sleet or rain and snow?

 

[NoSnowATL]

Rain and sleet or rain and snow?

Ice and sleet.