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Wintry Dec 8-10th Winter Storm

FamouslyHot said:
I’ve seen this enough times to know not to get sucked in by the NAM. Columbia friends, I suggest you don’t get your hopes up.

However, could this be more accurate in this case due to the NAM having a better hold on temp profiles whereas in other cases where Columbia has been on the edge the NAM overestimated the extent of precipitation (which won’t be an issue with this storm)


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Interestingly enough with an upgrade that was implemented in the spring of 2017, the NAM no longer has a moist bias. In fact I've seen it drier than the GFS at times wrt to low level moisture/QPF
 
nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_60.png
Nam 3km has the low even further south
 
Storm5 said:
To hell with that, the lead energy is closed off near Memphis . That’s a great sign for Arkansas Tennessee and extreme northern miss and Alabama like near the northern boarders
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Look at the confluence in NE. This has to dig ESE or SE a well .IF that is right in NE that ULL should push SE .
 
FamouslyHot said:
I’ve seen this enough times to know not to get sucked in by the NAM. Columbia friends, I suggest you don’t get your hopes up.

However, could this be more accurate in this case due to the NAM having a better hold on temp profiles whereas in other cases where Columbia has been on the edge the NAM overestimated the extent of precipitation (which won’t be an issue with this storm)
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Agree with your first quote.

Re: your latter quote.... Isn't this timeframe considered to be the NAM's wheelhouse?
 
NoSnowATL said:
I think it more ice.
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It's actually a mix. I just checked the sounding for ATL. 850 temp from 12km NAM has it at 0.7c (about 33f) There is a warm layer above 850mb. Temps there are 3.2c (37f) but it's a shallow layer. So, some area's will get a mix. It all depends on those temp profiles which I think will vary.
 
Storm5 said:
To hell with that, the lead energy is closed off near Memphis . That’s a great sign for Arkansas Tennessee and extreme northern miss and Alabama like near the northern boarders
02810aafda8567887c39a4b72af527d5.png



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Just looking out for Central Alabama lmao trust me if I could travel anywhere this weekend it would be Winston-Salem.
 
WxWatch said:
It's actually a mix. I just checked the sounding for ATL. 850 temp from 12km NAM has it at 0.7c (about 33f) There is a warm layer above 850mb. Temps there are 3.2c (37f) but it's a shallow layer. So, some area's will get a mix. It all depends on those temp profiles which I think will vary.
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Rain and sleet or rain and snow?
 
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