Wintry Dec 8-10th Winter Storm

[Myfrotho704_]

https://www.weather.gov/media/gsp/YouTube/brief.pdf this is the link to their briefing and that lr snow map

 

[MichaelJ]

GEFS and GFS are still stuck so no maps available right now. Since we are waiting for them, go to a post I just put up on the winter 18-19 thread. Those who miss out on this one will be pleased

 

[Jessy89]

When one you like? 18z Euro v/s GFS. GFS a little quicker bringing in precip which is big difference for us central NC folks.

View attachment 8548 View attachment 8549

You notice gfs favors ne upstate. While euro favors nw upstate

 

[Meteorologist1999]

How did the 18z Euro look someone??? Stronger ridge I hope.

 

[Sandstorm94]

There is increased uncertainty Monday and Monday night. Low-level
cooling may occur on the backside of the low as it shifts farther
northeast. The models indicate wrap-around moisture but have not
been consistent with the moisture depth and the development and
placement of the cold upper system. Updated to change precip
type to snow showers in the evening...best chance remains to the
north. At least flurries in the south Midlands/CSRA as upper
trough moves over the area. Moisture becomes more shallow after
06z.

Still in the game!

 

[NoSnowATL]

Late to the party but DAMN! Sorry for the language.

 

[$alt]

I compared the Dupage ptype maps with the weathernerds ptype maps and they are very very different to the South for the core of the event. When I click the area around CAE to generate a sounding on dupage, it gives me temps in the 40s and rain. When I do the same with the weathernerds website, it gives me some coordinates that when reversed show southern SC and says 32.8F and a mix.

Something is not right. Be very careful with the tidbits & weathernerds ptype/accumulation maps.

 

[Brick Tamland]

Here’s a better FV3 map that filters out the ice. Still a huge hit.
View attachment 8540

Love how it jumps from 2.8 to 15.9.

 

[Metwannabe]

Here’s a better FV3 map that filters out the ice. Still a huge hit.
View attachment 8540

Lol FV3 has a little finger of foot plus over me now..... right

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

 

[scroback]

FYI...a bunch of NCEP products are currently not working

"NCO Has noted that we have a backlog of data due to system problems.. Data below will be delayed.. DataFlow is currently working to distribute this data.. gfs18 - gfs22 - hourly22 - hrrr21 - lmp22 - pcpanl21 - prod/etss22 - prod/gfsmos18 - prod/gtg21 - prod/gtg22 - rap21 - rap22 - urma2p516 - wave18 - Thankyou for your patience.."

 

[Yellow Snow]

I ain't gonna lie, that run of the FV3 has me a little worried about ice if we keep going trends wise, although the TT maps are obviously clownish and wrong.

The Pivotal FV3 map gives nearly 2" of ice to Banks County - that'd be simply horrific.

 

[The Unknown]

How did the 18z Euro look someone??? Stronger ridge I hope.

I was gonna ask the same thing

 

[WeatherLC]

How did the 18z Euro look someone??? Stronger ridge I hope.

There is no 18z euro. Just 0z and 12z. Eps is another story though

 

[scroback]

Here’s a better FV3 map that filters out the ice. Still a huge hit.
View attachment 8540

Kuchera doesn't really filter out the ice. It just uses the max temp of the column to determine the snowfall ratio (which isn't even necessarily accurate) based off of the liquid equivalent that has fallen. So it still includes IP because model snowfall is SN+IP

 

[Genset]

I have been on this site for a while now, and this is my first post. Hurricane Tracker (on the other forum) has an incredible write up in the mountain forum. Absolutely worth the read!

 

[Ethan]

What did the 18z EPS say?

 

[Kylo]

There is no 18z euro. Just 0z and 12z. Eps is another story though

There's an 18z Op Euro, only rolls out to 90. I posted the snowmap above. Very similar to the 12z.

 

[packfan98]

The 18z GEFS is running on pivotal.

 

[Arcc]

I see you FV3 lol. Here pivotal's ice accumulations.
Soundings have wintry mix sleet/zr Sunday afternoon/evening then transition to snow Monday.View attachment 8541 View attachment 8543 View attachment 8545

Just quoting this to make a point for those in AL and GA. Just because 850s may drop below 0C it doesnt mean snow. On the two soundings above, it wouldnt be snow even if it was slightly colder through the column. The DGZ is dry, so at best it would be sleet/graupel. Watch out for that if the models start showing snow for these areas.

 

[Kylo]

What did the 18z EPS say?

Another 45 mins until done.