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Wintry Dec 8-10th Winter Storm

FamouslyHot said:
What does Wetbulb mean and what is its significance to the forecast? Is it similar to dewpoint? Sorry for the very basic questions
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I'm not sure if this got answered and I'm too lazy to read all the new posts so...

Wet bulb is the temperature that you do fall to if you fully saturate the atmosphere. Its significant here because if we see an initial burst of moderate to heavy sleet/snow at onset we will drive temperatures down to the wet bulb. If that wet bulb is in the 25-28 degree range for a good part of central nc it will actually act to preserve the surface wedge a bit as it begins to erode. It would also mean a much steeper climb for temps to rise above freezing as snow inevitably changes to sleet then rain or freezing rain.

If we see light precip early in the event we will actually see the dew points creep upward while the surface temps stay steady or slowly creep downwards. This will mean in time the wet bulb will creep up and as heavier precip arrives we may only drop to 31-33. This would mean a quicker wedge erosion as well as a limited accumulation for many. It would also push the chance of freezing rain to near 0

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Wherever this transition zone is progged on Friday, you want to be 30-40 miles in the clear, trust me. I've been burnt several times tucked just inside the modeled line by 5-10 miles. 850mb noses shown 24hrs out over-perform. Also keep on eye on a local min in western NC or SW VA, up in to s-c VA, indicative of the transfer. This can be exacerbated by Gulf and ATL convection. GFS shunts a vortmax east off NC, originates along the Gulf in LA, feedback or convection, only time will tell.

A positive orientation along the central Gulf coast will do a better job with moisture transport and limit the risk of a convective line running out ahead of the mid-level forcing. Balancing act, I am chasing this one, boom or bust. 2 new made in the USA snow shovels will be here on Friday, professional grade, truck going in for a full service tomorrow, and packing tonight. 18-24" I need to dig the vehicle out and clear a path, these are a significant upgrade on two they are replacing.

Anything less than 24" I will be a little disappointed, the fact I may have to hit the back roads again to find that niche spot has me juiced. The adrenalin rush coming in on the heals of a big dog is the best part, plus my comfort zone is near zero conditions and +SN.

Packing tonight, having a beer tomorrow, and leaving before sun up on Saturday. This is my first chase doing AirBnB as a primary, the commitment will happen Friday evening with a backup based on any 0z trends. I am not willing to commit to SW NC at this stage, but it does look like I may need to adjust my ~40 mile triangle south if the guidance continues to hold serve.
 
Just going through the crappy euro maps on weather.us it is a legitimate big front end thump of snow in NC. I would gladly walk off with .6-.8 of precip having fallen as snow and let the rest of the event fall where it may.
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Asking some of you experts on here, how far much more far South could the wintry side of this trend? Very curious about this.

Correction, how much further could it realistically trend?
 
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