Cary_Snow95
Member
Woah, low track is much further east. Western side of wake never flips on this run
12z
18z
12z
18z
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Wintry Dec 8-10th Winter Storm
- Thread starter SimeonNC
- Start date
This run of the gfs would shut down charlotte next week lol
Snowflowxxl
Member
Totals are a little down but I think its a fair trade off with the cooler temps!
18z Gfs This run is slowly but surely expanding the cold on wedge it’s also shifting cold further south.
Looks like parts of the North and eastern metro area.
Sigh. Thanks
Fountainguy97
Member
Not just west wake.
I’m extreme southeast corner of Wake. These are the soundings. Arguably all snow?? Great run. One tick colder!
ATLwxfan
Member
No
Check that. It’s a much better run for Atlanta and probably because temps are getting more favorable. As much as I want to stop obsessing over this, the 18z has reeled me back in. If the GFS is underestimating the cold, we might indeed have a December Surprise on our hands.
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I don’t see blizzard criteria being met maybe that’s just me...
RVD
Meteorology Student
This is the first respectable/non nail-biting sounding I've seen for Raleigh yet:
Winter Storm Watches for TX and OK !
Ok now who broke the GFS.... seems stuck @111
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Great trends with the models all day.
Oh goodness.... this is going to be heartbreaking Lol
Brent
Member
Dallas AFD, so close
Most of the model
guidance keeps temperatures just above freezing in our
northwestern counties, except most notably, the NAM. Global
guidance tends to underdo cold air advection in the case of
shallow Arctic airmasses such as this, so trended a little cool
compared to global models, but went warmer than the NAM. These
surface temperatures may be cold enough that when combined with
saturated profiles up to the -10 C isothermal level (i.e. the
dendritic growth zone) and dynamic cooling attendant with the
approaching mid-tropospheric trough that a wintry mix may be
possible northwest of a Breckenridge to Gainesville line. This
would likely begin initially as some light freezing rain, and
transition to snow quickly as the aforementioned dynamic cooling
takes place. It should be stressed however that at present time,
ground temperatures will almost certainly be too warm for any
appreciable accumulations, but interests in areas north and west
of the Dallas/Fort Worth Metropolitan Area should continue to
monitor.
Most of the model
guidance keeps temperatures just above freezing in our
northwestern counties, except most notably, the NAM. Global
guidance tends to underdo cold air advection in the case of
shallow Arctic airmasses such as this, so trended a little cool
compared to global models, but went warmer than the NAM. These
surface temperatures may be cold enough that when combined with
saturated profiles up to the -10 C isothermal level (i.e. the
dendritic growth zone) and dynamic cooling attendant with the
approaching mid-tropospheric trough that a wintry mix may be
possible northwest of a Breckenridge to Gainesville line. This
would likely begin initially as some light freezing rain, and
transition to snow quickly as the aforementioned dynamic cooling
takes place. It should be stressed however that at present time,
ground temperatures will almost certainly be too warm for any
appreciable accumulations, but interests in areas north and west
of the Dallas/Fort Worth Metropolitan Area should continue to
monitor.
It’s stuck
Well before GFS died and it's still snowing across most of NC
