Call me crazy, but I'm not ready to throw the towel in yet here for the 23rd. Five days out leaves plenty of time for us to pump the +PNA a little more favorably and dig that trough a little more.
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Pattern Dazzling December
- Thread starter Rain Cold
- Start date
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
What’s 300 miles among friends?
About 2 more of those and we will be good to go.
Well the Christmas storm just had it worst GEFS run soooo no sense looking.
griteater
Member
Agree, the first wave dropping down after the Arctic blast cutter likely won't have enough room to breathe and amplify....the 2nd one dropping down should have the best chance, and tonight's CMC nails it. It needs a good ridge spike behind it of course to help it dig.
We should be sore from all of the can kicking and table setting, but this is our last shot before +EPO mild Pac air overruns the country. I think it will be a relatively brief respite though as we should go back into -EPO/+PNA stuff thereafter (I think -PNA is the least likely) as there are multiple reasons to think the jet won't retract back to the W Pac (more +EAMT coming, and tropical forcing should be favorable)....of course, who knows if any of that will do us any good
griteater
Member
Looking at the 3 ensembles, can see here how the GEFS (1st image) doesn't have as good of a ridge spike out west at the key timeframe on Christmas Day. CMCE and EPS are more similar and have the better ridge spike (TPV over Western Canada has retrograded into AK on CMCE and EPS, but still lingering there on the GEFS).
Stormlover
Member
Is there not going to be a thread for the Thur/Fri threat?
griteater
Member
For the Arctic Cutter storm, here is the trend loop on the last 4 runs of the UKMet as the big wave begins to dig thru the Rockies. Can see here how the UKMet has increased the low pressure anomaly just north of the Great Lakes, going in the direction of the GFS. This is pretty classic though in the sense that whenever there is a major disagreement among the models, they almost always move toward one another rather than one of them being the grand winner.
Euro is a miss for most on the first system. Big differences from the GFS particularly over the western areas (AL/MS/TN)
bouncycorn
Meteorologist
She’s sticking to her guns. Won’t budge.
Brent
Member
I continue to be in awe of the front on the models... I mean even if it doesn't snow you don't see these every winter
I agree. We’re looking at a 20-30 degree drop in 3 hours. Going to be incredible to watch this unfold
bouncycorn
Meteorologist
00z MMFS is in and it remains consistent. The 3 runs Saturday (12z, 18z, 00z) were very consistent. Maybe a slight west nudge on this run.
Snowman63
Member
I'm not familiar with this model. Is it a blend of multiple model data/Ensemble data? Is it similar to NBM that the NWS uses?
bouncycorn
Meteorologist
No, it’s a stand-alone model not a blend.
Isn’t that good look? We are trending to something look it?
It is, but we need some work. I am willing to bet that there is more moisture with this look than what models are showing
SimeonNC
Member
27.5 on my weather station
SimeonNC
Member
Wind forecasts for the area seem to be rising, all models have decent sustained winds with gusts up to 30-40mph. There should be a wicked NW flow event up in the mountains.