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Pattern Dazzling December

ForsythSnow said:
ATL NAM'd. I guarantee that this won't be a very likely scenario but it'd be cool if it did happen.
snku_acc.us_se.png
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The very rare inverse ATL snow hole
 
Arcc said:
Honestly, looking at the GFS, I’m fairly confident something pops in the 25-27th time frame.
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I am not as confident as you. Orientation of pieces matter. We gotta see how this first storm plays out and once models get a good handle on where this storm cuts we should then look to behind it to see where the pieces end up landing. But like I’ve been saying for a month.. it’s hard to get a storm in the south even in the great patterns.
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
I am not as confident as you. Orientation of pieces matter. We gotta see how this first storm plays out and once models get a good handle on where this storm cuts we should then look to behind it to see where the pieces end up landing. But like I’ve been saying for a month.. it’s hard to get a storm in the south even in the great patterns.
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That's why I continue to beat the drum of it's not so much about patterns,
It's all about the timing.
We have literally threaded the needle in the worst patterns & got good to great results.
The opposite has happened in great patterns.
What worries me is waisting all this good deep cold.
 
Billypg70 said:
That's why I continue to beat the drum of it's not so much about patterns,
It's all about the timing.
We have literally threaded the needle in the worst patterns & got good to great results.
The opposite has happened in great patterns.
What worries me is waisting all this good deep cold.
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The thing about the pattern is that the right patten allows for more error when it comes to timing. We always have to thread the needle here. But a good pattern makes the eye of the needle wider.

In this case, the pattern isn't that good at the time of this storm, or so it appears at the moment. The thing that you look for 7+ days out is to see if the right components of a winter storm pattern are on the field, not to see if the model is showing a storm. Not saying you were doing that. But the pattern is directly related to the timing aspect.
 
Is it just me or does it seem like the -NAO has done more harm that good this year so far? I may be 18 years old but I’m old enough to remember the claim so many people say that a -NAO is good for the Mid-Atlantic and Eastern Seaboard. It seems like the NAO, or at least the variation of it this year, has been detrimental for us in the South and East. The massive low 500 miles ESE of Nova Scotia caused by the negative NAO has caused buckling in the jet further back west, over us, with only mediocre heights and a subtle upper ridge nudging and grudging it’s way over us again and again. Sure, Europe has definitely seen the cold and snow and it might just be the unfavorable Pacific; but, for us here in the East this massive -NAO has done nothing but churn higher 500 mb heights up into it along the Eastern Seaboard and that looks to be the case with the 22/23 system with basically a repeat of Dec 15 in the East, just colder this time. You might think I’m a ? but what the **** is wrong with this -NAO?
 
Interesting point from FFC that other posters have alluded to here:

“Starting Thursday night into Friday is when the real fun begins. The
deep, longwave trough will begin to pivot through the Southeast,
releasing the floodgates to an Arctic airmass that will bring
temperatures from 15-25 degrees below climatological norms. As the
colder air filters in behind the rains, a transition from rain to
snow may occur, especially across northern portions of the CWA.
While this is not the typical setup for wintry precip for the
forecast area, this won`t be a typical airmass pushing into the
region either.”
 
EthanLovesWeather said:
Is it just me or does it seem like the -NAO has done more harm that good this year so far? I may be 18 years old but I’m old enough to remember the claim so many people say that a -NAO is good for the Mid-Atlantic and Eastern Seaboard. It seems like the NAO, or at least the variation of it this year, has been detrimental for us in the South and East. The massive low 500 miles ESE of Nova Scotia caused by the negative NAO has caused buckling in the jet further back west, over us, with only mediocre heights and a subtle upper ridge nudging and grudging it’s way over us again and again. Sure, Europe has definitely seen the cold and snow and it might just be the unfavorable Pacific; but, for us here in the East this massive -NAO has done nothing but churn higher 500 mb heights up into it along the Eastern Seaboard and that looks to be the case with the 22/23 system with basically a repeat of Dec 15 in the East, just colder this time. You might think I’m a ? but what the **** is wrong with this -NAO?
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They are historically great for the east. Brad Panovich kind of mentioned it may not behave like a traditional -NAO used to. I had my doubts but once again he looks to be on to something
 
EthanLovesWeather said:
Is it just me or does it seem like the -NAO has done more harm that good this year so far? I may be 18 years old but I’m old enough to remember the claim so many people say that a -NAO is good for the Mid-Atlantic and Eastern Seaboard. It seems like the NAO, or at least the variation of it this year, has been detrimental for us in the South and East. The massive low 500 miles ESE of Nova Scotia caused by the negative NAO has caused buckling in the jet further back west, over us, with only mediocre heights and a subtle upper ridge nudging and grudging it’s way over us again and again. Sure, Europe has definitely seen the cold and snow and it might just be the unfavorable Pacific; but, for us here in the East this massive -NAO has done nothing but churn higher 500 mb heights up into it along the Eastern Seaboard and that looks to be the case with the 22/23 system with basically a repeat of Dec 15 in the East, just colder this time. You might think I’m a ? but what the **** is wrong with this -NAO?
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The -NAO does have a positive correlation to more snow across most of the US. However, that's only when the NAO actually blocks cold air. Often times the NAO can be manipulated unfavorable to turn into a North Atlantic Ridge for reasons like a +EPO during the first week of the month. This period looks to be unfavorable and prohibits the -NAO from developing a 50/50 low because the trough is too far into Central Canada and forces the ridge into the 50/50 region. In conclusion, most -NAOs are favorable because troughs can undercut them, but oftentimes, that's not a sure bet.

FibpORyWAAIkTWo.png
 
Rain Cold said:
The thing about the pattern is that the right patten allows for more error when it comes to timing. We always have to thread the needle here. But a good pattern makes the eye of the needle wider.

In this case, the pattern isn't that good at the time of this storm, or so it appears at the moment. The thing that you look for 7+ days out is to see if the right components of a winter storm pattern are on the field, not to see if the model is showing a storm. Not saying you were doing that. But the pattern is directly related to the timing aspect.
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Raincold,
Agreed whole heartily.
We are all on the same page in regards to the desire for Wintery Weather.
I totally get that patterns make it much easier to thread said needle.
I'm normally even keeled,
This one hurts.
And I'm not one to fall for every modeled cold & storm but this one had me at hello....
Btw thanks to all the regular posters that keep us lurkers up too date.
There's so many very very knowledgeable posters here and I for one appreciate you all.
 
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