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Pattern Dazzling December

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Man what is going on
 
Dynamically, it makes a little more sense to me for the vortex to hang back a bit over the Rockies before ejecting eastward than getting strung out like the gfs shows. It sitting there a little longer will allow more cold air to pour into the trough (& arguably favor an even colder outbreak down the road), but delay its arrival by a day or so downstream.

 
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I'll give the GFS devil its due. I figured it would change by 12z and it didn't and it's ensembles trended back to a wintry solution with the first wave. I still think the 2nd system has the best shot and this first one is better situated to set us up for the 2nd. But it is funny to see the GEFS trend towards the op this run
 
We're getting an early reminder of how hard it can be to get a good snow for most of us, even when we manage to get the cold. At one time, we were looking at the 19/20th system to be the table setter and maybe deliver something, then it became the 22/23rd system that is now hanging by a GFS thread. Now we are hoping for that to pave the way for the Christmas/Boxing day system and that one is all over the place.

Remember guys, these specific pieces of energy and all the moving parts make the forecast VERY complicated going forward. It looks likely we may get a good week or so of legitimate cold, with energy in the neighborhood, and that is all most of us can really hope for. Lots of potential, but, as we know, it may not deliver. It's much better to see the players on the field (at this point) than for them to have already given up. Pretty much anything could happen at this point, hopefully we can get something to line up by the end of the month!
 
Would be awesome to start to see more hits with the after Christmas system. It's difficult to get excited about the first system, for obvious reasons down in my neck of the woods. Hopefully with the Euro getting in full range, we can start to get more bites on that. As we get closer to the timeframe, and we begin to lose that timeframe, then that would be unfortunate. But we have several more days to figure it out.
 
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