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Pattern Dazzling December

SD said:
That was a pretty big change in the gfs across the NE. Hopefully a blip and not a trend. We need it to go the other way for anything to be realistic before Christmas
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That piece of the TPV coming out ahead is def key. Keeps us cold out ahead, if we lose it, it opens up room for it to become a cutter
 
Made some updates to the look and feel of the Ensemble Members Winter Storm Chart, and I included the map & guidelines at the bottom

First chart is from the 12z runs of GEFS / CMCE / EPS

Second chart is solely from the 18z GEFS. The most noticeable difference was an increase in the number of storms for Dec 26-27 on this GEFS run

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Wild Weather Monger said:
IDK. I think I prefer the further west/stronger look.
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If it does it to much where there’s less GLs TPV nothings stopping it from becoming an inland runner/cutter. The GFS is a perfect example of that, notice 12z has a nice TPV out ahead, that’s key because it’s the cold source during the storm, without it, we’re working with our prior, marginal airmass
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
If it does it to much where there’s less GLs TPV nothings stopping it from becoming an inland runner/cutter. The GFS is a perfect example of that, notice 12z has a nice TPV out ahead, that’s key because it’s the cold source during the storm, without it, we’re working with our prior, marginal airmass
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This is exactly why I agree with you that the 25th-26th shapes up better for us. While I do think the first system could have some backside snow, simply because of the strength of the airmass coming in from the backside, 2-3 days later there will be a legitimate Arctic airmass in place and blocked
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
If it does it to much where there’s less GLs TPV nothings stopping it from becoming an inland runner/cutter. The GFS is a perfect example of that, notice 12z has a nice TPV out ahead, that’s key because it’s the cold source during the storm, without it, we’re working with our prior, marginal airmass
Click to expand...
Was the 12z UKMET a cutter? ?
 
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