NCSNOW
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The Baja wave needs to stay intact more on the euro, futher north. That will solve the problem and they ( NS & SS) can link / hook up.
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Pattern Dazzling December
- Thread starter Rain Cold
- Start date
Not too many tics away from interacting with that PV up there! At the very least, that southern vort needs to skeedaddle east quicker.
I love all the interpretation of the modelling but, in my opinion, it's kind of like giving directions to someone in a place you are not familiar. Oh, the directions sound great but the chances of getting lost are greater for the poor sucker taking those directions.
The pattern modeled is a rarity with this anomalous pattern. I honestly think the precip/amount won't get dialed in until we are just a couple days out or even then. This chance for cold reminds me a lot of 1989 around and just after Christmas. That one happened to be dry and cold not the greatest winter afterwards (Birmingham, AL) This one has the looks of something rare and different.
I am with you guys on this rollercoaster though. Let's reel one in for the ages. It will be fun to track. Hell, it's been already!
The pattern modeled is a rarity with this anomalous pattern. I honestly think the precip/amount won't get dialed in until we are just a couple days out or even then. This chance for cold reminds me a lot of 1989 around and just after Christmas. That one happened to be dry and cold not the greatest winter afterwards (Birmingham, AL) This one has the looks of something rare and different.
I am with you guys on this rollercoaster though. Let's reel one in for the ages. It will be fun to track. Hell, it's been already!
Curius to know if the Ridge is playing a role in that.
iGRXY
Member
EPS looks to be increasing western ridging as well
iGRXY
Member
Off first glance it looks better tilted compared to the OP as well.
Shaggy
Member
Models always seem.to be too slow with the energy out west it seems. Hopefully that will be the case here as well
While im in doubt, it’s not far off at all 
NCSNOW
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Thats beyond my pay grade lol. The Ridge isn't quite as tall/sharp pointed as the gfs. One is the cause and effect of the other.
Ill be watching the trajectory of that southern stream energy everyrun now. Gfs has painted the picture of what it needs to look like at 500mb.
Looks like the snow mean is going to be a improvement
That's all we can ask. You can't expect all op models to lock onto a storm almost 200 hrs out. I'm interested if the number of hits go up on ensembles.
Not impressive but it’s somewhat better then last run, looks like a lot of light members 
iGRXY
Member
People will sell their souls for 42
Parker
Member
Both systems. I love it. Not gonna take much snow to cause issues with advertised temps
I like that it’s a lot of light members as opposed to just 1or 2 big ones. The important thing is that very cold air is coming and there looks to be a good amount energy flying around with it. Btw… TWC now CLT forecasted a high of 28 next Friday and that’s with sunny conditions.
That really aint a bad look.
It also makes me feel better seeing that it's probably snow or nothing.
It also makes me feel better seeing that it's probably snow or nothing.
griteater
Member
After the initial Arctic boundary storm that drops down mid-late next week, the Euro is plowing the closed low over the Great Lakes / NE up into the blocking Greenland ridge and breaking it down (less +PNA ridge contributes as well) - 1st loop
The GFS has a much better looking evolution where the closed low rolls up under the blocking ridge that retrogrades into Hudson Bay - 2nd loop
This slows things down and you can see how the next wave then starts to dig more sharpely thru the Rockies on the GFS (better) vs. the Plains on the Euro
This is a key piece to watch for with respect to follow-up storm potential which would be loaded with wintry potential if this could hit right given the influx of deep south cold air.
The GFS has a much better looking evolution where the closed low rolls up under the blocking ridge that retrogrades into Hudson Bay - 2nd loop
This slows things down and you can see how the next wave then starts to dig more sharpely thru the Rockies on the GFS (better) vs. the Plains on the Euro
This is a key piece to watch for with respect to follow-up storm potential which would be loaded with wintry potential if this could hit right given the influx of deep south cold air.
EPS with a legit signal along-north I-20 