Pattern Dazzling December

[CaryWx]

Better than UKMET

 

[Oconeexman]

Yea if we can get Jimmy to talk the euro into that 300-500mile shift west we'd be in business. Def a strong storm signal and a lot to work out over the next 8 days.

 

[NCSNOW]

Key is the heighth of the pac ridge. Like Fro said its gotta be taller and that will help the dig. Plenty of time. We will see some good ens and some misses

 

[Metwannabe]

Better than UKMET

Definitely, Ukie threw a small scare but it is way outsider at this point... will probably come around some

 

[wxdaniel]

Euro isn’t all that dissimilar from gfs. Just needs to dig more. The northeast gets the same result either way

Dig? While you are correct the southern energy is not even close to what the GFS brings:

 

[bouncycorn]

I’ll happy take a late bloomer at this lead time. There’s a decent chance of snow between the 23rd and 27th for many across the SE.

 

[BullCityWx]

Pretty strong signal on GEPS and GEFS. If EPS follows, we might be on.

 

[LukeBarrette]

Same thing Fro is saying, he’s exactly right. Depends on PNA height.

 

[NCSNOW]

GFS

Euro

Euro

 

[Myfrotho704_]

This storm associated with the TPV imho isn’t getting me as being the one, that’s my opinion, I hope it is, and I hope I’m wrong, and I may be wrong because it isn’t far away on the models that don’t have it, but history always tells us big deep cold vortex in place then energy rides the western ridge then we score, that look AFTER is what gets my attention, absolutely classic

 

[Cad Wedge NC]

Signal is still there, that’s all that matters at this moment

Yeah, this is still a week away. need to stick with the ensembles until at least 96 hours out. Good news it that the GFS ensembles have not waivered. This time frame has been looking good for a week. Now, ..... If the EPS goes the way of the GEFS in bringing down the cold, then we can start looking closer to what may be in store. Right now, I am pretty stoked about the potential right before Christmas.

 

[accu35]

So much energy flying around between 23rd-27th.

 

[Arcc]

This storm assisted with the TPV imho isn’t getting me as being the one, I hope it is, and I hope I’m wrong, and I may be wrong because it isn’t far away on the models that don’t have it, but history always tells us big deep cold vortex in place then energy rides the western ridge then we score, that look AFTER is what gets my attention, absolutely classic View attachment 126698

Agree. If we score on the first, we really got lucky on a setup that generally doesn’t work.

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Yep check out the movement here at the end. A signal that’s shown up on almost all the ensembles at this juncture. Almost a backing up blocking of energy which is setting up for something here at the end of the euro.

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

The trends we need to focus on at this rate is the strength and trend of strength of that ridge out west. We get a taller ridge? More chance to score on the 23rd. Shorter ridge? We miss out on a big first event but set up better for maybe a 25-26 event.

 

[NCSNOW]

On Euro we Need that southern streak of energy zipping out of the northern baja area, not southern. Like someone said earlier. Needs to run across GOM shoreline. This is doable and how we get an earlier bloomer like the GFS.

 

[accu35]

Not much now but a start in our time frame.

 

[LukeBarrette]

Interesting look to end the run

 

[Rain Cold]

The trends we need to focus on at this rate is the strength and trend of strength of that ridge out west. We get a taller ridge? More chance to score on the 23rd. Shorter ridge? We miss out on a big first event but set up better for maybe a 25-26 event.

I think we can agree that the Euro has been behind the 8 ball in the west coast ridging department the last few days. So we got that going for us, I guess.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

however with a strong upper level trough moving over like that, and as we seen several and several times, light snow showers breaking containment is a somewhat intriguing prospect, typically associated with low DGZs so models don’t see it until short rangers see it. this by itself, is a huge win near Christmas