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Pattern Dazzling December

Ollie Williams said:
I have to ask, can you ever think of a time when a storm has caved to the UKMET? I know it has good verification scores, but I can only think of multiple times where it's been an outlier and the last to cave.
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In the old days it had a suppression bias - I remember it being the first model to track the Dec 2010 storm farther south. About 4-5 years ago it got some upgrades, and it went on a bit of a heater where it had some good wins. In the past few years though, it has had more misses than hits in my view
 
griteater said:
In the old days it had a suppression bias - I remember it being the first model to track the Dec 2010 storm farther south. About 4-5 years ago it got some upgrades, and it went on a bit of a heater where it had some good wins. In the past few years though, it has had more misses than hits in my view
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Still waiting on my 19 degree ice storm it showed for 4 runs from it in Feb 2021 ??
 
griteater said:
12z UKMET is going with a massive cutter in the central U.S. I would say don’t shoot the messenger, but, there really is no way that you can shoot me
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that gfs run was a splendid high but i think people are savvy and seasoned enough here to know that there's still a full tacklebox of possibilities on the table with this thing 200 hours out. i think that where the trough (that thing is way too stout and strong to limit to calling a "shortwave" lol) will continue to ping around, jackpotting us, jackpotting chicago one run, then maybe memphis another, i would go ahead and bake in some disappointment because there's nowhere to go but down after that run lol. not meant to be dour post, i'm actually very optimistic, but i don't think the dec 23 storm is "ours" by any means
 
Ollie Williams said:
I have to ask, can you ever think of a time when a storm has caved to the UKMET? I know it has good verification scores, but I can only think of multiple times where it's been an outlier and the last to cave.
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ukmet absolutely crushed irma, consistently the southernmost model while others brought it into miami if i remember correctly, i also think it was one of the first globals to pick up on more precip with the pixiedust storm last year. it's a good model, often foreshadows the euro, and the reason it doesn't get highlighted more is that it's just way less accessible than other models
 
griteater said:
In the old days it had a suppression bias - I remember it being the first model to track the Dec 2010 storm farther south. About 4-5 years ago it got some upgrades, and it went on a bit of a heater where it had some good wins. In the past few years though, it has had more misses than hits in my view
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There was a time when,
If the Euro & UK was in lockstep with each other it was pretty solid.
Things may have changed.
Let's hope the Euro is closer to the GFS.
 
Rain Cold said:
Multiple rounds of high pressure in the 1050s and 1040s dropping into the middle of the country. You want big snowstorms in the SE, that's a HUGE ingredient in recipe. What a site to see!
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This is how the ice age begins. Starts doing this and doesn't stop, lol. I'm ready, I have cords of wood cut and my sleds ready. Got some studded snow tires, and a Mavic 3 drone that I can't wait to fly over a new snow pack. I don't have a mastodon pelt, but that might be possible a few years into the ice age. And I'm still holding out hope for some sleet from the 18th moisture underneath to put down a nice base of stick around for a long time for my foot of snow.
 
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Euro looks better honestly. Ridge building in faster than even the GFS.
 
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