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Pattern Dazzling December

Just a little friendly reminder to limit the one liner/questions/show maps please/etc type of post. Those that have access usually post them as soon as they get a chance (remember many of them pay for those maps and we're glad they share) but be patient. Again, this place is really going to get busy over the coming days and post will get deleted.

Thanks
 
Everything looks table set and ready after the 25th. I mean British royalty would be impressed. Lol. After that IMO, we just need to get something to tilt to our west around the Mississippi. Right now everything in the southern stream seems to want to keep flat and passes to our south, and in the northern stream the angle is poor and doesn't amp until under us. To me I think that's why the ensembles still don't look that great in regard to snow chances. But as post 10 days comes closer into view, hopefully that changes.

Awesome thing is we've moved passed most of December but that's not the usual time for high snow chances anyway. We're setting the stage for a terrific time period right in peak climo end of Dec/early January. Just that in itself makes for a decent winter IMO.
 
BullCityWx said:
HRRR and it's canadian equivalent gets the warm front to just about I-40 in Raleigh. 3k doesnt get it north and west of JoCo and Harnett county.
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It's going to have a tough road with all the rain this morning locking in the wedge but the wind at the house is ESE so I think it gets to near mby
 
SD said:
It's going to have a tough road with all the rain this morning locking in the wedge but the wind at the house is ESE so I think it gets to near mby
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It will be fun (for a weather nerd) seeing the big jump and then the fast drop afterwards.

RDU temp graph:
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NickyBGuarantee said:
@griteater I would love to see another one of your updated graphics on tonight’s 00z models and the chance for a storm in that girded area you had. Would be extremely intriguing to see where it lies after tonight.
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I'm in standby mode. Let's see where the models go today in terms of what the ensemble members are pumping out. I enjoy putting that together and want to see how the numbers look, but it does take a little time. Thanks for the feedback though. I will put those together as much as I can
 
1671112034297.png
I love seeing the majority of the European ensembles showing a snow signal at this range. Means they are really picking up on something. Big storm or not I would be ecstatic to see snow in December AROUND CHRISTMAS of all times. Blessed we are to be able to have a period like this so early in our season.
 
Met1985 said:
It's actually the calm nights when its about negative ten and your nose hairs freeze 30 seconds when you walk outside. It's historic to be that cold but the truth is it's very hard on everything when it gets 10 degrees and below. Coldest I've ever witnessed has been negative 13 degrees.
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Codest I’ve seen (actually can remember seeing or hearing) was -27°F. Back home in the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. Marquette County.
 
The city ensemble member maps are from paid sites. We usually have site member here that post cities that are pertinent to them or to give us a sampling. If your city was not posted, you can DM the member and ask them to look up your city. Even better, sign up for a subscription and look for yourself.
 
BCA50496-B5FE-458A-91F6-BFC5F6C80E76.jpegI don’t mean to change the topic from this awesome winter pattern coming up, but eastern North Carolina I am concerned for an isolated tornado this afternoon. The amount of convection needed to spin a tornado is low, but the map below is a blended map of 6km wind shear and a tornado parameter. Just understand there is a lot of spinning going on above your head and having a low circulation would be hard to see in the rain.
 
BullCityWx said:
I’m trying to spin through the Rolodex in my head of past weather events and I cannot remember the last time we had sub 510DM heights in NC like the 0z euro showed.
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The only one off the top of my head is December 1989 if I’m recalling correctly.
 
Lots of noise on both ensembles. Just need to zero in on a specific storm as there are a few signals within a day or 2 of each other. Could be models struggling to piece down 1 storm or there's going to be a few waves that produce (I'm leaning this thinking). I Think it's really only a matter of time before we get to see pretty clown maps on the Ops. I'm still interested in the Christmas timeframe, but even then I doubt we start seeing any storms until we are under 150 hours on the ops.
 
Snippet from James Spann this morning

NEXT WEEK: The weather looks dry for the first half of the week; an Arctic front will have potential to bring rain by Thursday. The reliable European global suggests there could be some risk of light snow following the frontal passage Thursday night, but it is way too early to know if it will be anything meaningful, or it if happens at all.

What we do know is that the coldest air so far this season will blast into the Deep South by Friday (December 23), setting the stage for a very cold Christmas weekend. Highs drop into the 20s and 30s, with lows in the teens. Colder spots over North Alabama could dip into the single digits, and some places could be below freezing for 48-72 consecutive hours. See the daily Weather Briefing video for maps, graphics, and more details.
CBF4B7B9-73E0-4FDF-84FD-B8F62479B226.jpeg
 
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