Well, might as well post the clown model, 0z CFS:
Christmas morning:
Christmas early evening:
Christmas morning:
Christmas early evening:
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Pattern Dazzling December
- Thread starter Rain Cold
- Start date
Supported by the 6z gfs just a little off with timing.
Now THAT is perfection. It's getting pretty clear there will be energy around...
This place is going to be going bonkers for the next week.
Broken024
Member
All sorts of hits on the gefs starting at hour 180
bouncycorn
Meteorologist
Lots of GEFS fun on Christmas Day…
It is gross outside this morning. 38 and rain.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Definitely can’t rule out some snowflakes with the arctic front ~Dec 23rd either. Quite a few takers on the eps and gefs
iGRXY
Member
Not even at hour 300 yet
If there was ever a cold front that could do it.
it really reminds me of that front we had that kicked off last January except we start 20 degrees colder.
griteater
Member
Euro went from dumping massive cold to San Diego to dumping massive cold to Atlanta in all of 2 model cycles. Volatility
I think it will matter on the orientation of the front (direction of surface wind). Seems like if it is NW to SE we can pull in cold faster as the front (with precip) moves through. A west to east flow gets caught up by the higher mountains to our (NC) west.
Shaggy
Member
Yeah got to be some big dogs. My hour 324 mean snowfalls now over 2 inches which is pretty unheard of at that range
NCSNOW
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Its rare but happens, I remember a flash freeze one several years back, forget year, was at least 7 years ago+. These are neat to witness, cause we usually have to wait on the delay for air to get across the mtns.
Ditto on the 38 and rain, Been going on since before sunset yesterday!
It’s funny .. some of the GEFS members that don’t have a hit on the 23rd have a hit later on the 26th .. it’s like if we miss the first pitch we are ready and loaded for another a couple days later. This pattern wants to produce.
Met1985
Member
Yeah about 2 Christmases we had a kind of flash freeze. Went into work at 5 pm was 45 degrees and rain changed to snow and temps fell out the bottom. Got home the next morning to 6 inches of snow with a temp of 10... Was wild out.
Shaggy
Member
@metwannabe looking good. This is an ensemble mean 8-10 days out so a huge grain of salt. The key is the pattern is right for it and oppurtunity is there.
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NCSNOW
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You and Met got a shot at something decent 23-24th as I beleive a late coastal is gonna get spun up . That was trend through last night. Aint greatest odds in world, but yalls location may serve you well this one time. Depends on how things trend.
NCSNOW
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On The 0z Euro Op run, if we closed the gap from the start of the Coastal and Front approach by 12 hours for the 23rd, it would have been something to see on the clown map. That's not hard to do. Of course it can trend other way as well. Speed of the front/Artic Plunge and/or delay the coastal genesis.