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Pattern Dazzling December

Chazwin said:
We’re really gonna need to watch for any sort of weak wave moving along the Gulf Coast during this timeframe. With that type of airmass moving into place, it wouldn’t take much to produce a light overrunning event with high ratios.
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Thinking we could see some clipper action with that surge of cold air
 
Stormdoc said:
Definitely looks intriguing. Hate to be that guy who brings up January 88, but I’m old and nostalgic. Is this in any of the analogs? I believe it also had a strong -EPO with cross polar flow, although probably not as much -NAO. It featured a very weak low with mostly baroclinic lift along the arctic front if I remember correctly.
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January 1988 actually had a +NAO and +AO. Just managed to time up the coldest weather of a mild winter at the right time
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
Easy to see what happened with today 12z euro here +PNA much later and much lower earlier than the majority of it’s ensembles by a few days.. huge difference here and the spread is notable View attachment 126187
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Can you show the PNA graph that looked a lot better from a couple days ago for reference and comparison to this one??
Thank you so much. I appreciate it.
 
GEFS says let's do this

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GEFS 18z are very very active. I would not be sleeping on a white Christmas potential. If we can get the proper phasing out of this good things can happen even before the post Christmas potential. The fact that we’re getting some impressive cold laid out more west to east opens up the door to quick hitting snow events as well with energy diving around our stagnant and powerfully blocked PV .. nuclear potential IMO if these trends continue and hold.
 
GEFS trend loop of last 5 runs for Dec 22

I like how we are trending to a stronger NAO block. Honestly, I can't remember a time of model watching where we've thrown this amount of cold air up under a block, so all bets are off in terms what comes down the line (if this look holds on the modeling of course).

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