Cary_Snow95
Member
Energy in the SW is interesting
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Pattern Dazzling December
- Thread starter Rain Cold
- Start date
Great Lakes low disappeared lol .. this run could get interesting around Christmas or just thereafter ..
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
This pattern has legit big dog potential around-just after Christmas.
The overall window in/around the Holidays-last week of Dec has certainly felt about right to me from a large-scale perspective & certainly fits in general with the prototypical La Nina winter evolution, as well as the analogs that have been discussed for a few weeks now (e.g. Dec 2010)
Big arctic cold front comes down in the days prior, firmly establishing a nice, deep-layer cold air mass & suppressing the baroclinic zone to the coastal SE & E Coast, where a trailing wave can take advantage + throw moisture back into the cold air. -NAO downstream slows the wave down & encourages it to cyclonically break/amplify underneath >> strengthening any would-be winter storm, while the +PNA helps suppress the storm track down into the southeastern US.
Today's 12z EPS & 12z GEFS means show a classic Miller A/coastal cyclone snowstorm look in the Carolinas, w/ the mean trough anchored in/around the TN Valley, west-based -NAO, & +PNA. Heck, we even have the ridge north of Alaska like the composite does.
Color me impressed.
Another intriguing climatological tendency I've noticed in reanalyzing storms like this, in the absence of a strong (often El Nino-induced subtropical jet) to increase available eddy potential energy (& strengthen + tuck in the low even closer to the coast >> allowing warm noses aloft to change snow to rain for those in Piedmont & Coastal Plain), these Nina Miller A storms tend to be historically kinder to folks around RDU & points east in the coastal plain & eastern piedmont of NC.
The overall window in/around the Holidays-last week of Dec has certainly felt about right to me from a large-scale perspective & certainly fits in general with the prototypical La Nina winter evolution, as well as the analogs that have been discussed for a few weeks now (e.g. Dec 2010)
Big arctic cold front comes down in the days prior, firmly establishing a nice, deep-layer cold air mass & suppressing the baroclinic zone to the coastal SE & E Coast, where a trailing wave can take advantage + throw moisture back into the cold air. -NAO downstream slows the wave down & encourages it to cyclonically break/amplify underneath >> strengthening any would-be winter storm, while the +PNA helps suppress the storm track down into the southeastern US.
Today's 12z EPS & 12z GEFS means show a classic Miller A/coastal cyclone snowstorm look in the Carolinas, w/ the mean trough anchored in/around the TN Valley, west-based -NAO, & +PNA. Heck, we even have the ridge north of Alaska like the composite does.
Color me impressed.
Another intriguing climatological tendency I've noticed in reanalyzing storms like this, in the absence of a strong (often El Nino-induced subtropical jet) to increase available eddy potential energy (& strengthen + tuck in the low even closer to the coast >> allowing warm noses aloft to change snow to rain for those in Piedmont & Coastal Plain), these Nina Miller A storms tend to be historically kinder to folks around RDU & points east in the coastal plain & eastern piedmont of NC.
Cary_Snow95
Member
Western ridge flies up around 200 hours
JLL1973
Member
it doesnt look like a white christmas for anyone across the southeast but man its going to be cold
Way too early to say, see my post above
per some here, this isn’t extreme cold 
Hi
Holy balls 
griteater
Member
This friggin GFS run is COLD
This look though
Pipe bursting, nose bleeding, pants splattering COLD! 
Christmas Day. High temperatures. 
We’re really gonna need to watch for any sort of weak wave moving along the Gulf Coast during this timeframe. With that type of airmass moving into place, it wouldn’t take much to produce a light overrunning event with high ratios.
Ron Burgundy
Member
We’re gonna need a new colorThis friggin GFS run is COLD
SASQUATCH
2-Time Defending SouthernWX Fantasy Football Champ
Member
2024 Supporter
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I honestly believe it ran out of colors.
Definitely looks intriguing. Hate to be that guy who brings up January 88, but I’m old and nostalgic. Is this in any of the analogs? I believe it also had a strong -EPO with cross polar flow, although probably not as much -NAO. It featured a very weak low with mostly baroclinic lift along the arctic front if I remember correctly.This pattern has legit big dog potential around-just after Christmas.
The overall window in/around the Holidays-last week of Dec has certainly felt about right to me from a large-scale perspective & certainly fits in general with the prototypical La Nina winter evolution, as well as the analogs that have been discussed for a few weeks now (e.g. Dec 2010)
Big arctic cold front comes down in the days prior, firmly establishing a nice, deep-layer cold air mass & suppressing the baroclinic zone to the coastal SE & E Coast, where a trailing wave can take advantage + throw moisture back into the cold air. -NAO downstream slows the wave down & encourages it to cyclonically break/amplify underneath >> strengthening any would-be winter storm, while the +PNA helps suppress the storm track down into the southeastern US.
Today's 12z EPS & 12z GEFS means show a classic Miller A/coastal cyclone snowstorm look in the Carolinas, w/ the mean trough anchored in/around the TN Valley, west-based -NAO, & +PNA. Heck, we even have the ridge north of Alaska like the composite does.
Color me impressed.
Another intriguing climatological tendency I've noticed in reanalyzing storms like this, in the absence of a strong (often El Nino-induced subtropical jet) to increase available eddy potential energy (& strengthen + tuck in the low even closer to the coast >> allowing warm noses aloft to change snow to rain for those in Piedmont & Coastal Plain), these Nina Miller A storms tend to be historically kinder to folks around RDU & points east in the coastal plain & eastern piedmont of NC.