Pattern Dazzling December

[rburrel2]

Seems like chances of anything frozen ahead of or with the arctic blast are very slim for us. Best odds right now would be something dropping down on the backside of the polar vortex as it eventually relaxes and moves east. Maybe in the 25-28th timeframe.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

for the first TPV related wave if the Carolina’s were to cash in on a coastal you’d need the energy to dig around MS/AL border - start to pivot over east AL, and it dig pretty far south. might be asking for to much but something to think about

 

[wxdaniel]

Can’t draw it up better than this. Beautiful position of the +PNA blowing up out west.. piece of additional energy following behind our arctic airmass dump and TPV.. oh and there’s nowhere for these pieces to go under that western based -NAO … yeah that could work.

Neat bonus feature: a ridiculously anomalous -EPO View attachment 126354

This looks similar to the pattern with the storm last January.

 

[Metwannabe]

Santa dragging the north pole SE with him, goodness

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Seems like chances of anything frozen ahead of or with the arctic blast are very slim for us. Best odds right now would be something dropping down on the backside of the polar vortex as it eventually relaxes and moves east. Maybe in the 25-28th timeframe.

Eh I would say run to run changes are fairly extreme right now. Ensembles have a plethora of different solutions still. I wouldn’t count anything out as of right now until we get more clarity on exactly how things play out. But regardless I do believe after Christmas has a good shot at giving us something as well. When you get this much cold air and blocking/+PNA to play with you can mold up a lot of different scenarios where we score.

 

[Metwannabe]

General Q & A stuff is better for banter threads. Please learn to use more than 1 thread so this stays clear of clutter, some mods move post (that's generous) some of us just delete (it's easier and tired of saying same thing).

 

[wxdaniel]

Eh I would say run to run changes are fairly extreme right now. Ensembles have a plethora of different solutions still. I wouldn’t count anything out as of right now until we get more clarity on exactly how things play out. But regardless I do believe after Christmas has a good shot at giving us something as well. When you get this much cold air and blocking/+PNA to play with you can mold up a lot of different scenarios where we score.

Exactly, some of the best winter weather around the Carolinas comes from this set-up along with a surprised system from Baja to Kansas. Main concern up until this point was the dump out west, but Rain made a great point the Indian ocean tropical mass moving east. Will impact everything in the Pacific along with the Aleutian block.

 

[Rain Cold]

Causal 495 TPV over NY View attachment 126351View attachment 126352View attachment 126353

What a turnaround for the Euro from 24 hours ago. You all were right about the ensembles for this pattern. They have been steady on so far.

 

[NCCWOP9077]

Today's CPC analog based on the GFS super ensemble centered around Christmas day

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

View attachment 126359
Today's CPC analog based on the GFS super ensemble centered around Christmas day

There are some memorable winter storms associated with those years. 1963 was my first snowfall memory in SE Louisiana.

 

[accu35]

Christmas Eve fireplace incoming

 

[Myfrotho704_]

That Arctic cutoff ridge is one of the most extreme I’ve ever seen setup

 

[NCSNOW]

Seems like chances of anything frozen ahead of or with the arctic blast are very slim for us. Best odds right now would be something dropping down on the backside of the polar vortex as it eventually relaxes and moves east. Maybe in the 25-28th timeframe.

I'm just gonna put the water hose inside, get it room temperature. Go outside Christmas eve night and hook it to the spigot, start spraying everything. If my pressure washer wouldn't freeze up and do damage, id dead series run it, yard would look like Sugar Mtn in 30 mins

 

[Metwannabe]

That Arctic cutoff ridge is one of the most extreme I’ve ever seen setupView attachment 126363View attachment 126364

With the cold on our side of the globe for a change! Boom!

 

[Myfrotho704_]

That right there, is your classic SE pattern (Miller A) look

 

[Meteorologist1999]

That right there, is your classic SE pattern (Miller A) look View attachment 126366View attachment 126367View attachment 126368View attachment 126369

This is what we wanna see for us here in the SE.

 

[NCSNOW]

Metwannabe has been tinkering with the 12z Canadian and Euro op: Almost carbon copies of each other:

 

[bouncycorn]

12z MMFS is so close with the 18th system..

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

That right there, is your classic SE pattern (Miller A) look View attachment 126366View attachment 126367View attachment 126368View attachment 126369

Would love to see the individual members here .. some GEFS definitely looked like they had miller A evolutions as well. Certainly fits the pattern but would favor just post Christmas time

 

[jrips27]

Shoutout Webb