Pattern Dazzling December

[Myfrotho704_]

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

If any storm system has been somewhat consistent, it's that we are going to have some piece of energy flying with the Arctic front... Which will favor areas West of the apps.

Southeast would rely on a coastal low popping off or getting some Gulf moisture in after cold moves in.

Unless that western ridge keeps sliding east. Then it will go negative out to sea and we can all enjoy watching a fish storm turn to a Boston banger. ? womp

 

[Myfrotho704_]

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Looks like models are converging honestly, GEFS took a step to the CMC/CMCE/EPS while the CMCE/CMC and last nights EPS took a step to the GEFS

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Still lots of discrepancies on the GEFS members on how December 20-22 plays out .. this is the time period where things get funky in the model .. going to be some good members

 

[NCSNOW]

Yesterdays High: 43
Todays : 41 as light rain, starts currently 41 and DP 34; should knock back into the 30s

Pattern change is here

 

[iGRXY]

 

[packfan98]

Well, here's where the GFS ends up by hr 384. This makes me hopeful that we can get a reload and more winter weather threats on the table before the end of the year.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

GEFS has the angle of cold looking much better as well, Vs dipping it in texas, it’s more west to east

 

[ATLwxfan]

Nice combo of suppression and back end moisture to frustrate the weenies. It’ll be cold though!

 

[Iceagewhereartthou]

Wasting cold air with this…

No such thing. We always need the cold air FIRST and I'll take it every time. Mother Nature is not giving us a "cold now or cold later" trade off.

 

[ForsythSnow]

Starting to look drier and drier but we have time to trend it back or angle it enough to pull some sort of system. It'll either be bitter and mostly dry or we'll be able to pull something. Been noticing overall runs drying up as well.

 

[griteater]

GEFS days 7-10. Cold moving east up under an improving looking west-based block. We're trying to get where we need to go

 

[Oconeexman]

GEFS days 7-10. Cold moving east up under an improving looking west-based block. We're trying to get where we need to go

When's the last time we had that good of a west based -nao that strong?

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

GEFS days 7-10. Cold moving east up under an improving looking west-based block. We're trying to get where we need to go

I love where we are at right now. People don’t realize how much just a few minor tweaks can open the door to a big time winter system in this type of pattern and we have 240 hours to tweak it in our favor. Regardless of the winter weather the cold is coming.

 

[griteater]

When's the last time we had that good of a west based -nao that strong?

This one has been waffling back and forth so far this month, but the potential is there for it to setup nicely

Previous good ones in the recent past:
March 2018: VA got hit good with multiple storms, but the Pac pattern was poor for us south of there
Jan 2016: there was a good one right before the big Mid-Atlantic blizzard
Dec-Jan 2010/2011: really good ones that reloaded

 

[accu35]

It’s a matter of time before models goes crazy with threats

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

I’ve got an old Facebook post from this day in 2010 and apparently it was 4 degrees at sugar mountain at the time. Map checks out ?

 

[Myfrotho704_]

The looks coming up is almost a blockier version of jan-Feb 2014, but the cutoff subtropical strength ridge over the Arctic is what separates this one coming

 

[Oconeexman]

The looks coming up is almost a blockier version of jan-Feb 2014, but the cutoff subtropical strength ridge over the Arctic is what separates this one coming View attachment 126334View attachment 126335View attachment 126336View attachment 126337

Rex block with a 50/50..thats the best we could ask for honestly