Pattern Dazzling December

[Myfrotho704_]

GFS was actually faster with the extremely cold stuff then last run….

 

[CaryWx]

I going to say we see a strong fropa in NC on Christmas day. Likely heavy chill rain followed by some back end snow and big cold

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Not a bad trend on the speed of the Arctic airmass moving in

 

[Rain Cold]

View attachment 126157
Weirdest looking system you’ll ever see. Legit brings the freezer with it

That would be a high quality cold front right there

 

[Avalanche]

That would be a high quality cold front right there

Would their be some narrow convective fropa with that?

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Now we look behind to see if a storm rides into this air mass .. usually so the big cold shots like this you look for snow on the front end, a little after it’s established and on the backend for winter potentials.. this though is absolute plenty of cold air to support a winter storm .. almost too cold ?

 

[Stevo24]

Now we look behind to see if a storm rides into this air mass .. usually so the big cold shots like this you look for snow on the front end, a little after it’s established and on the backend for winter potentials.. this though is absolute plenty of cold air to support a winter storm .. almost too cold ?

Dry as a bone if I had to guess with air that cold.

 

[Rain Cold]

Would their be some narrow convective fropa with that?

It wouldn't surprise me, but I'm lazy and haven't looked at parameters.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

 

[accu35]

Santa better bundle up

 

[Cary_Snow95]

View attachment 126164

Lol OP gonna trend better and ensembles going to go the other way

 

[EmersonGA]

It wouldn't surprise me, but I'm lazy and haven't looked at parameters.

Kind of looks like that one in Dec 2000. Tornadoes followed by a dusting of snow. I think my high was 17 that day.

 

[Met1985]

So far the GEFS has a better cold push at the beginning of this whole change. I like it.

 

[accu35]

Looks like a north trend on the 18z gefs on the 18th system

 

[Myfrotho704_]

this gefs run catching my interest in day 7 system, 50/50 low and energy with a suppressed height field, cold would be biggest issue imo, need stronger 50/50 low or more Arctic injection into it

 

[bouncycorn]

this gefs run catching my interest in day 7 system, 50/50 low and energy with a suppressed height field, cold would be biggest issue imo, need stronger 50/50 low or more Arctic injection into it View attachment 126166View attachment 126167

That one has potential.. biggest question will be whether or not we can manage to get cold enough air for winter weather, either at the surface in the form of ZR or otherwise in the form of SN.. the upper air setup almost looks like a classic ZR storm across the southeast.

 

[accu35]

this gefs run catching my interest in day 7 system, 50/50 low and energy with a suppressed height field, cold would be biggest issue imo, need stronger 50/50 low or more Arctic injection into it View attachment 126166View attachment 126167

Little more north and maybe a little faster then this southeast would be rockin. Fro, this is catching my interest also.

 

[Cary_Snow95]

Clear trend on GEFS towards dumping in the west

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

this gefs run catching my interest in day 7 system, 50/50 low and energy with a suppressed height field, cold would be biggest issue imo, need stronger 50/50 low or more Arctic injection into it View attachment 126166View attachment 126167

Some of the GEFS are trying to quickly phase this system with the northern JET .. interesting

 

[Snowlove33]

On a positive note I wonder what would happen if everyone in the southeast on the board was to get 30 inches of snow in one storm then would y’all be satisfied or would y’all still track snow afterwards???