• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern Dazzling December

NickyBGuarantee said:
That’s the thing with operationals they do the best they can but they are only 1 singular solution based off of one set of current conditions. Ensembles take many slight variations in initial conditions and see how everything plays out then. While they sr whither resolution they are still just like if you would pick one of the ensemble members and decide to show that as the solution.
Click to expand...
It would be interesting to see which member has the best verification score. I believe that should be in place of the OP run.
 
Hypsometric said:
I think the 12z EPS run is really going to be telling. If it sticks to its guns or trends better like the GEFS that would be encouraging, if it starts to tilt towards the ops and the GEPS that would be pretty concerning. The critical period is not way out in la la land, it's actually between D4-D7.

Folks can talk about delaying it all they want, but how many pattern changes have been delayed then denied, not delayed not denied? There will always be more wrinkles to add the farther out in time this goes, and dropping the tpv in the PNW is not something I'd like to have to iron out later.
Click to expand...
I've been saying this for days. The cold dumb was originally scheduled for the 12th - 15th if i'm not mistaken, and here we are on the 13th with signs of further delays...
 
Robert West said:
I mean we aren't going to expect it to suddenly fold face first to the Euro, but it certainly was worse than the 00z.
Click to expand...
Yes but here’s the gfs at 240 and it’s ensemble .. this is what you’re looking for .. the euro was different in almost every aspect meaning it’s most likely wrong in its depiction57DD4CE9-4E4E-4A15-BEE9-299241F430B6.jpegF424332F-434E-488A-9F52-7F2F0025A603.jpeg
 
iGRXY said:
If anything this would help slide the TPV further southeast because it's being pinched from the north and west
Click to expand...
My thought exactly. Look I get how everyone wants to look at one time frame to see how things compare to different models or to previous runs, but you really have to look at the whole run to get the complete picture in my opinion. Everything that I’ve seen on the 12z ensembles tells me that the coldest air does get pushed south and east… we’re just seeing timing differences. Also, it’s important to point out that ensembles have been hinting for several days of that little flex from the SER during the 22-23rd timeframe, so yeah it seem reasonable why we would see some little spike in temperatures at that time.
 
smast16 said:
I've been saying this for days. The cold dumb was originally scheduled for the 12th - 15th if i'm not mistaken, and here we are on the 13th with signs of further delays...
Click to expand...
Originally, the pattern shaft was supposed to be mid-month. Accounting for the usual delay, expecting the shaft around the 20th would have been more appropriate. We'll see how much more shafting there is to come. The Euro op is a disaster. If it doesn't start moving away from that type of progression soon, then you can toss the ensembles.
 
smast16 said:
I've been saying this for days. The cold dumb was originally scheduled for the 12th - 15th if i'm not mistaken, and here we are on the 13th with signs of further delays...
Click to expand...
This is simply not true. There was never supposed to be this big cold dump this week. There was simply supposed to be a pattern change that promoted basically below average temperatures now… which is exactly what we’re seeing. This has been well shown for a couple weeks on the EPS and had really followed very closely what those ensembles have been showing.
 
Rain Cold said:
Originally, the pattern shaft was supposed to be mid-month. Accounting for the usual delay, expecting the shaft around the 20th would have been more appropriate. We'll see how much more shafting there is to come. The Euro op is a disaster. If it doesn't start moving away from that type of progression soon, then you can toss the ensembles.
Click to expand...
Toss ensembles for one Operational is not smart. Especially in the long range. Especially from 1 run that looks completely different from other guidance
 
Rain Cold said:
Originally, the pattern shaft was supposed to be mid-month. Accounting for the usual delay, expecting the shaft around the 20th would have been more appropriate. We'll see how much more shafting there is to come. The Euro op is a disaster. If it doesn't start moving away from that type of progression soon, then you can toss the ensembles.
Click to expand...
Don’t forget the UKMET! It sucked too!!
 
Rain Cold said:
Originally, the pattern shaft was supposed to be mid-month. Accounting for the usual delay, expecting the shaft around the 20th would have been more appropriate. We'll see how much more shafting there is to come. The Euro op is a disaster. If it doesn't start moving away from that type of progression soon, then you can toss the ensembles.
Click to expand...
toss the ensembles for two weeks out in a highly volatile pattern? You and I both know you're better than this post.
 
Chazwin said:
Reading his stuff for as long as I have both on this board and a certain previous one, I think he was trying to be sarcastic.
Click to expand...
I’m sure hoping I missed picking up on something. He knows I consider him a friend too.

The ensembles look fine. Absolutely, utterly fine. Honestly they’ve held serve now, at the least, for an entire 24 hours of runs if not improved.
 
If the roles were reversed and the GEFS and EPS, especially the EPS, were showing warmth and the Operationals were flipping back n forth between warmth and cold, everyone would say pay attention to the ensembles. And they would be right because ensembles, especially at this lead is the way to go.
 
BullCityWx said:
toss the ensembles for two weeks out in a highly volatile pattern? You and I both know you're better than this post.
Click to expand...
Not much better. In any case, I wouldn't toss them over one or two runs of an operational model. I said, if the op doesn't abandon it's reversion to a western trough, soon then I would toss.
 
iGRXY said:
If the roles were reversed and the GEFS and EPS, especially the EPS, were showing warmth and the Operationals were flipping back n forth between warmth and cold, everyone would say pay attention to the ensembles. And they would be right because ensembles, especially at this lead is the way to go.
Click to expand...

10000000% spot on there. If the ensembles told me that warmth was coming, you’d better bet that I would ride with them.
 
Rain Cold said:
Not much better. In any case, I wouldn't toss them over one or two runs of an operational model. I said, if the op doesn't abandon it's reversion to a western trough, soon then I would toss.
Click to expand...
At a five day lead time, I think I’d tend to agree with you. I would certainly think differently then in that event.
 
I don’t understand the big discussion here. If an operational model shows a category 4 hurricane hitting Texas and 6/7 of the ensembles of that model are showing a hit into Florida than one can presume the hurricane is probably going to head towards Florida.


If we are expecting a snow storm and a models operational is showing 16 inches of snow but its ensembles show only 4. One can assume we are most likely going to be around 4 inches of snow.

Obviously the ensembles can be wrong absolutely. There’s a reason we have ensembles. So that we can shake out the craziness of the operational models. As a meteorologist you want to see an ensemble that looks somewhat similar to its operational to know whether it’s on the right track or whether you can expect changes in future runs.

To expect a drastic change to a TPV dipping into the SW seems unlikely given the model data we have right now as there is LITTLE support for that. Could it happen? Absolutely. Could we all be screwed and get 70 degrees on Christmas Day? Absolutely. But the majority of data we have right now is NOT pointing towards that solution.

Hope this did not come off as aggressive as it’s not my intention I just want to clarify how meteorologists use weather model data.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top