The bias to hold energy back is something that the Euro has always had. Even here it doesn’t make sense to dump everything in the west… the Pacific trough is still there and strong and should keep the energy from diving down hard like that.
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Pattern Dazzling December
- Thread starter Rain Cold
- Start date
Storm5
Member
Kicking the can
Still with the euro we end here.. blocking strong -AO/-EPO .. we’re going to get cold I’m not worried about a delayed and denied .. if you’re expecting snow in the south then maybe you’re denied but when you live down here you can never expect snow no matter how good bad or ugly the pattern is .. cold though is coming IMO 
SnowwxAtl
Member
Pretty much...let's see what the ensembles say
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EPS says euro you’re on CRACK! 
iGRXY
Member
EPS on the left, Euro Op on the right
EPS is nowhere near as bad as the euro, but so far is a little worse, cold footprint remains similar however. There’s something interesting tho, the euro-EPS have a stronger -NAO block, is it possible that it’s hurting the eastward movement of the TPV, because it’s retrograding west while the TPV is trying to move east, if I can recall, webb and others mentioned how that played a hurtful role in February 2021c because the block actually contributed to slowing the trough down and hurting the eastward propagation in Feb 2021
That’s the thing with operationals they do the best they can but they are only 1 singular solution based off of one set of current conditions. Ensembles take many slight variations in initial conditions and see how everything plays out then. While they sr whither resolution they are still just like if you would pick one of the ensemble members and decide to show that as the solution.
Yes… I’m gonna top out about 48 which is several degrees lower than forecast. My average is still 55 and will drop to 54 next week…I mentioned that because only one day of the next ten is forecasted to be at or above average and that is Thursday, but I have a feeling that wedge is gonna be stubborn. Friday is forecasted to be 54 and then after that I’m in the 40s everyday. I don’t where some folks are saying the pattern change is delayed because it’s here… it’s just taking different stages like the EPS has been showing for a couple weeks
buckinbronco
Member
Yeah that is more like it
Christmas weenies just need to pray we start to run far from this solution at 00z 
bouncycorn
Meteorologist
I mean we aren't going to expect it to suddenly fold face first to the Euro, but it certainly was worse than the 00z.
That would make sense because obviously the NAO block does slow the flow down some. However we still see a strong Aleutian low and Pacific trough that does continue to push everything east… something we didn’t have in February 2021. Maybe this delays the coldest air by 24-48 hours, but it should also allow it to become better entrenched once in place
240 EPS on the left, 240 Euro Op on the right. Just a little bit of difference 
iGRXY
Member
If anything this would help slide the TPV further southeast because it's being pinched from the north and west
Yeah ideally for this set up is to hit us at night. Not enough cold air to keep this snow during the day BUT that’s only if we have an actual system .. cool looking model though can’t wait to see how it does all winter