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Pattern Dazzling December

Chazwin said:
The other thing that I’ll point is that often when the cold air dives down hard like January 1994 for example, anything trying to come out of the southern stream get squashed to the southern Gulf or sheared out completely. Honestly,the January 1988 storm is a great example of how you want a cold airmass to come in.
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Yes sir you are exactly right. To me personally give me temps from 20 to 30 degrees with plenty of moisture. Anything colder and it's hard to get a system through that strong of a high pressure.
 
griteater said:
I would guess that @Jimmy Hypocracy likes this....stealing the PV and cold air from Asia, cross polar style

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Somebody said it well the other day, the coldest air on the planet is always on the other side of the planet99% of the time, every winter! I’ve NEVER seen it on our side! This is gonna be fun ride!
 
Robert West said:
I don't honestly think anything is going to work in the Southeast during that 20th-21st timeframe. Just seems like a transition period time to me between the last airmass & the big one dropping down.
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Hate to be that guy but I remember the time period from the 18th to the 23rd to be cold and stormy. Now all of the sudden we just saying cold and dry.
 
LukeBarrette said:
Hate to be that guy but I remember the time period from the 18th to the 23rd to be cold and stormy. Now all of the sudden we just saying cold and dry.
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Well there was always the risk of a ridge flex in that timeframe, it really started showing up a few days ago. I think at first we sorta thought the pattern change would move in & stay in up to Christmas. But i think we cool down this weekend, then briefly warm back up then the jury is still out on the true Arctic air a day or so before Christmas. But who knows.
 
I think the 12z EPS run is really going to be telling. If it sticks to its guns or trends better like the GEFS that would be encouraging, if it starts to tilt towards the ops and the GEPS that would be pretty concerning. The critical period is not way out in la la land, it's actually between D4-D7.

Folks can talk about delaying it all they want, but how many pattern changes have been delayed then denied, not delayed not denied? There will always be more wrinkles to add the farther out in time this goes, and dropping the tpv in the PNW is not something I'd like to have to iron out later.
 
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