This gefs run has a much stronger western ridge
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Pattern Dazzling December
- Thread starter Rain Cold
- Start date
Met1985
Member
The ensembles are leading the way. Been preaching this for days now. The damn op gfs changes every run ans has very little continuity with it.
LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
Meteorology Student
Member
2024 Supporter
2017-2023 Supporter
I mean the 12z GEFS has only one member that shows accumulation of snow for the first event.
Met1985
Member
That's why we want the cold to slide not dive down because the high pressure of that magnitude with shear out any system.
Mega overrunning event incoming in the GEFS 
Needless to say, I am doubting we'll see support on the GEFS for that way inland solution.
Just hope the GEFS isn’t being to progressive and to quick 
GEFS is in the process of setting up for some big dogs here shortly .. widespread winter storms
I remember 77 & 83 very well extremely cold most of the continental US. This is why I still believe it's not a zero sum game in our patterns.
There's absolutely been patterns that get the lower 48 cold at the same time.
Clearly doesn't happen often but has happened a few times in my 50 plus years.
It's all about timing...
Keep us posted. At work and really can’t look.
Like a boxer eyeing it's wobbling opponent, i think this is the knockout:
Hypsometric
Member
If we were going in a bad direction, you would think the ensemble mean would be either going in a worse direction or holding the line....but it's improving here on Dec 20th. I especially like the slight improvement with the -NAO placement. This is the GEFS Mean, last 5 runs
I do not disagree that the evolution of the GEFS did end up improved. I still believe we are on the razors edge of the energy digging too much and delaying the whole thing, but the 12z GEFS was an improvement and I amateurishly jumped the gun thinking it would be worse (see GEPS).
I am more than happy to be the sacrificial board idiot and eat crow in the snow on Christmas
. In fact, I think I deserve this treatment and it's only fair I be punished with an embarrassing amount of cold and snow 
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Great look for sure, but wouldn't this be a nod towards the OP? Stronger looking push of cold, but the push ticked further West. Like others have mentioned, last thing we want (Speaking for areas in the Southeast) is for this to dig to aggressively into the Southern plains. Everything gets delayed, then we wait an eternity for the cold to bleed East. Just seems like the latest GEFS was a nod towards a dump further West, which we don't want to much of.
griteater
Member
There's a lot going on here (not surprisingly). One one hand, the CMCE is slower to kick the SW Canada TPV east compared to the GEFS, but it ends up moving faster east so they essentially catch up. But also, the GEFS does later have that look of a heavy Arctic plunge into TX (like the GFS Op)....with CMCE moving the cold more west to east into the Ohio ValleyI do not disagree that the evolution of the GEFS did end up improved. I still believe we are on the razors edge of the energy digging too much and delaying the whole thing, but the 12z GEFS was an improvement and I amateurishly jumped the gun thinking it would be worse (see GEPS).
I am more than happy to be the sacrificial board idiot and eat crow in the snow on Christmas
nit-picking at the mb contours but they still dive a little deeper south east unless I'm mistaken
Met1985
Member
If You look the cold air is more expansive and the colder air fans out more and better. Better for the cold air to slide across than dive down. If this trough dives down we can kiss any snow bye-bye.
Round two showing up for eastern carolinas on christmas eve.
Met1985
Member
Model watching will make you question your whole life lol.I do not disagree that the evolution of the GEFS did end up improved. I still believe we are on the razors edge of the energy digging too much and delaying the whole thing, but the 12z GEFS was an improvement and I amateurishly jumped the gun thinking it would be worse (see GEPS).
I am more than happy to be the sacrificial board idiot and eat crow in the snow on Christmas