Another nuke of a wave diving in and going negative on the GFS. What a bomb. Someone somewhere is going to get absolutely crushed around Christmas. This has been a constant feature the last several runs
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Pattern Dazzling December
- Thread starter Rain Cold
- Start date
If we go to far west/interact we actually win because the cutoff block on top happens faster and we speed up flow under the cutoff ridge faster, which pushes the TPV out faster
Just can't seem to get this into the southeast though. The overall trend is obvious but still wrestling with how far into the southeast this can penetrate into meaningful cold for true winter weather. That seems to be the wobble from my untrained eye
Your Christmas Eve 7pm temps on the 12z GFS. Chilly!
Gefs looks better so far lol, TPV moving out faster, the first piece near the Canadian border being the dominant piece 
High liquid equivalent ratio snow here 
WEATHERBOYROY
Member
Just curious, does anyone have access to the upper level archives to Christmas eve 1983? I wonder how this would compare....83" was supposed to be the coldest Christmas on record for the continental US.
A fourth straight pixie dust event?
ForsythSnow
Moderator
The GFS just drops the entire PV on the SE for Christmas
Mustve heard about southern hospitality.
Meanwhile, something possibly cooking on GEFS with the first event.
I mean it does enter down the stovepipe ?
I just want one run where we max out that western ridge and watch this thing give brick 37” of snow
I just want one run where we max out that western ridge and watch this thing give brick 37” of snow
We just missed the connection here .. but good lord that would have been a Christmas to remember .. this is what we want to see at this lead time
Here was the pattern surrounding Christmas '83 when compared to the LR EPS. Some noticeable similarities between the strong -NAO and +PNA. However, this pattern has a -NAO, but less of a SE Canada Vortex.
iGRXY
Member
Need the trough to pull back west some and that would've been the Christmas of all Christmas gifts. Artic air flying in behind it over a snow airmass? it would be there for a week and we would likely get single digit and subzero temps for lows.
Gefs 3 run trend 
griteater
Member
If we were going in a bad direction, you would think the ensemble mean would be either going in a worse direction or holding the line....but it's improving here on Dec 20th. I especially like the slight improvement with the -NAO placement. This is the GEFS Mean, last 5 runs
Notice the faster the cutoff ridge occurs on the trend/faster it disconnects from the higher heights in the GOA, the quicker the TPV moves out. That’s key since the cutoff ridge has flow sped up underneath, then the pac trough does it’s job pumping heights out westIf we were going in a bad direction, you would think the ensemble mean would be either going in a worse direction or holding the line....but it's improving here on Dec 20th. I especially like the slight improvement with the -NAO placement. This is the GEFS Mean, last 5 runs
griteater
Member
We really don't want to see a big Arctic plunge into Texas and eventually Florida. It would be better to see it come down boldly, but slide more west to east up under the Greenland block....that's moreso what that GEFS 500mb pattern is showing (and temp anomalies here)
Just my untrained, uneducated opinion:
Lean on the ensembles heavily in such a volatile period. They've been successively colder every run today.
Lean on the ensembles heavily in such a volatile period. They've been successively colder every run today.
LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
Meteorology Student
Member
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2017-2023 Supporter
It’s just hard to believe that two systems in a row get sheared out on GFS and CMC