• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern Dazzling December

ILMRoss said:
the storm the gave nashville 8 inches of snow last year or something like that was high clouds in the models like 4 days out. i think about that basically every time there's a shortwave hanging around in the 3/5 day range
Click to expand...
When I was a kid I remember John Cessarich at WYFF4 made a late call on a low coming out of the gulf 24-48 hours before it happened. We got several inches. Different times I know.
 
ILMRoss said:
the storm the gave nashville 8 inches of snow last year or something like that was high clouds in the models like 4 days out. i think about that basically every time there's a shortwave hanging around in the 3/5 day range
Click to expand...
I can remember plenty of southern sliders over the years that my area was forecasted to be dry 3-4 days out but ended up getting a decent snowfall. February 2010 was probably the best example as it was forecasted a slight chance of flurries 24 hours prior and ended up with 5” of snow
 
griteater said:
This is the second iteration of this graph

From the 00z runs last night, here is the percentage of members with a winter storm (snow or ice) in the blue area on the map (2nd image).

I changed it to express the numbers as a percentage since each ensemble has a different number of members (10 of 30 hits on GEFS is 33% hit rate / 10 of 50 hits on EPS is 20% hit rate). It doesn't effect the % for the total (black line) because it just so happens that we have 100 total ensemble members

qjm7MlO.png


vAyeaGN.png


Reminders:
1. I didn't count upslope snow in the mountains
2. I didn't count rain storms that ended as some snow
3. I didn't count weak storms with skiffs of snow
4. I didn't count the operational or control runs in the total
5. If a storm spanned multiple days or time periods, I only counted it once
Click to expand...
. What was the Black line yesterday when you 1st introduced this to us? Did it increase or decrease for the dates 12/20-12/25. Thats a great metric to observe. Thank you for sharing
 
Big high pressure sliding down the Rockies. This is the tablesetter if you’re holding out hope for a Christmas storm. I don’t know how much more any of us can ask for. This gives everyone in America a fighting chance at a white Christmas.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top