Yeah I agree along with the upcoming pattern change the models are trying there best to work it out. But this system this week will have implications going forward.
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Pattern Dazzling December
- Thread starter Rain Cold
- Start date
Brent
Member
If y'all are bored with the fantasy snow there's a confirmed tornado moving into DFW right now...
packfan98
Moderator
Anything to report from the end of the 6z EPS? @Myfrotho704_ or anyone else with access.
While we wait on the 12Z big dogs, this is a rather interesting start for the 18th system if extrapolated.
Well, while the Lange range NAM is mostly useless for temperatures and surface output, it can do very well with 500mb features.While we wait on the 12Z big dogs, this is a rather interesting start for the 18th system if extrapolated.
Not dumb at all… to me any system in the 18-20th timeframe screams as something that could trend to ice/sleet in the western/central Carolinas and NE GA. Better snowpack in the northeast after this week’s storm and a set up that definitely argues for strong CAD with a shallow cold air mass moving in place. Remember we’re still at a time where globals are gonna have a hard time picking up CAD potential.
In Waterloo today, currently 34 rain, winds sustained at 28mph gusts to 46mph, windshield was frozen over from ZR onset ice!
pretty nice jolt on the icon so far, need to dust off the part of my brain that handles the "extrapolating the icon at 10:30 am" executive functioning but a s/w with more separation is probably a good thing 
edit - ok lol this is not the d8 system but the one before it, still makes me think that appetizer system has room for some shifts north
edit - ok lol this is not the d8 system but the one before it, still makes me think that appetizer system has room for some shifts north
ICON is trying to thread the needle. NAM at 84 and the ICON were similar at 500 Mb.
Definitely digging the energy better in the southwest and it looks like a better cold push coming down on the Great Lakes.
griteater
Member
This is the second iteration of this graph
From the 00z runs last night, here is the percentage of members with a winter storm (snow or ice) in the blue area on the map (2nd image).
I changed it to express the numbers as a percentage since each ensemble has a different number of members (10 of 30 hits on GEFS is 33% hit rate / 10 of 50 hits on EPS is 20% hit rate). It doesn't effect the % for the total (black line) because it just so happens that we have 100 total ensemble members
Reminders:
1. I didn't count upslope snow in the mountains
2. I didn't count rain storms that ended as some snow
3. I didn't count weak storms with skiffs of snow
4. I didn't count the operational or control runs in the total
5. If a storm spanned multiple days or time periods, I only counted it once
From the 00z runs last night, here is the percentage of members with a winter storm (snow or ice) in the blue area on the map (2nd image).
I changed it to express the numbers as a percentage since each ensemble has a different number of members (10 of 30 hits on GEFS is 33% hit rate / 10 of 50 hits on EPS is 20% hit rate). It doesn't effect the % for the total (black line) because it just so happens that we have 100 total ensemble members
Reminders:
1. I didn't count upslope snow in the mountains
2. I didn't count rain storms that ended as some snow
3. I didn't count weak storms with skiffs of snow
4. I didn't count the operational or control runs in the total
5. If a storm spanned multiple days or time periods, I only counted it once
One thing I’ve learned over the years is never throw away the first system, it may be the only one you get.
Big improvements on the ICON from 00z.
Met1985
Member
Been saying this all along. Excellent post.
Yep big -EPO and +PNA ridge going up.. let’s all that cold air slide down into the US while we have energy sliding out of a somewhat active subtropical jet
As Ollie said big improvement here, less westward digging, stronger pacific trough, quicker cutoff near Alaska means a faster progression to +PNA
Oconeexman
Member
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Icon with 2 near misses on the 18th and 21st. Wouldn't take a whole lot of change for some folks to get some light wintry precip
the storm the gave nashville 8 inches of snow last year or something like that was high clouds in the models like 4 days out. i think about that basically every time there's a shortwave hanging around in the 3/5 day range
Meh 