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Pattern Dazzling December

It's the ops vs the ensembles now. I would not discount the ops because you now have multi-model agreement across five different modeling suites at a higher resolution than the ensembles. My concern is that the lower resolution of the EPS/GEFS are somehow not fully resolving some of the complex interactions that the operationals are.

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ecmwf.png

gfs.png

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Compared to the EPS/GEFS

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I certainly hope the EPS/GEFS are correct, but I'd like to see some trends towards them in at least some of the ops soon.
 
Hypsometric said:
It's the ops vs the ensembles now. I would not discount the ops because you now have multi-model agreement across five different modeling suites at a higher resolution than the ensembles. My concern is that the lower resolution of the EPS/GEFS are somehow not fully resolving some of the complex interactions that the operationals are.

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Compared to the EPS/GEFS

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I certainly hope the EPS/GEFS are correct, but I'd like to see some trends towards them in at least some of the ops soon.
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Bingo. I as said days ago, if you are totally discounting the OP runs in favor of the ensembles, you are begging up heartbreak. I’m not saying to go all in on the OP runs, but I’ve seen the Ensembles completely fold to the higher res OP run and I’ve seen the opposite. Better to keep an open mind here.
 
Arcc said:
Bingo. I as said days ago, if you are totally discounting the OP runs in favor of the ensembles, you are begging up heartbreak. I’m not saying to go all in on the OP runs, but I’ve seen the Ensembles completely fold to the higher res OP run and I’ve seen the opposite. Better to keep an open mind here.
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This one is 50/50 in my mind. Are the ensembles with their varying initial conditions accounting for errors in the initialization that the operationals have currently (very possible!!), or is it the resolution issue (also very possible!!)? I'm hoping and praying it's the former.
 
Hypsometric said:
This one is 50/50 in my mind. Are the ensembles with their varying initial conditions accounting for errors in the initialization that the operationals have currently (very possible!!), or is it the resolution issue (also very possible!!)? I'm hoping and praying it's the former.
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This has been one of the longer See-Saw/ Battle Royal Events I've witnessed in a while. Especially Ensembles lined up together verse the Ops. Its usually ops verse ops or American suite verse Foreign suite. Something will give soon here over the next day or two. Lucy is always around the corner lol. I still like where we are headed and cautiously optimistic.
 
Hypsometric said:
This one is 50/50 in my mind. Are the ensembles with their varying initial conditions accounting for errors in the initialization that the operationals have currently (very possible!!), or is it the resolution issue (also very possible!!)? I'm hoping and praying it's the former.
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To me whether the it ends up being close to the depiction last night’s ensembles showed or the operational is ultimately a moot point because of that Aleutians low and Pacific trough… as we have seen from last January, if it does drop out west some at first everything gets kicked east fairly quickly…. This would also be favored with where the teleconnections line up in this period.
 
Hypsometric said:
As a followup, we've also lost the GEPS to the operational idea and it only took two runs for it to cave.

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Granted, it does kick the tpv east pretty quickly for now, but it's already stepping towards the operational ideas which isn't great IMO.

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Personally I have a hard time deviating from ensembles and assuming ops are correct.. the euro ensembles have been all but absolutely reliable so far and got this pattern change before the gfs or it’s ensembles knew what was happening. I mean we are talking about 50 ensembles run at different varying initial conditions all pointing in a certain direction. While I understand the hesitance I’m still sticking with the most reliable source right now.
 
Here’s the GFS OP last several runs.. almost no consistency here for the 22nd .. this is why I don’t put much stock in the operationals vs their counterparts that run the model 25-50 times 1670933828996.gif

Now here is the GFS ensemble for the same time period .. much more consistency and helps block out the craziness 1670933928155.gif
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
Here’s the GFS OP last several runs.. almost no consistency here for the 22nd .. this is why I don’t put much stock in the operationals vs their counterparts that run the model 25-50 times View attachment 126011

Now here is the GFS ensemble for the same time period .. much more consistency and helps block out the craziness View attachment 126012
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EXACTLY!….That was my exact point yesterday.
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
Personally I have a hard time deviating from ensembles and assuming ops are correct.. the euro ensembles have been all but absolutely reliable so far and got this pattern change before the gfs or it’s ensembles knew what was happening. I mean we are talking about 50 ensembles run at different varying initial conditions all pointing in a certain direction. While I understand the hesitance I’m still sticking with the most reliable source right now.
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The EPS has really been as reliable and steady as you can ask for as this has unfolded the last couple weeks. It was in favor two weeks ago of a “step down” type pattern where we go from well above to slightly below average that we’re seeing now. For whatever reason, it’s always done extremely well during periods of -NAO and high latitude blocking
 
While I do trust ensembles. I am not saying we are going to get snow out of this pattern. There are plenty of ways to fail and even have things remain rain. Some of the ensembles do support those type of solutions. So while I do trust them more I don’t think it’s a 1 to 1 correlation that we do see winter weather. Let’s just not try to look too hard into every single run and see how things progress over several days. Here’s the gfs and what it showed at only hour 162 several days ago vs what we have now only 72 hours out now (essentially what we are really going to see vs what it was showing us at just 162 hours out) big changes can happen quickly so we just have to monitor how those ensembles trend through several days vs worrying about every operational output IMO.

162 hours out:
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72 hours out:
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Also the GEFS ensemble for the same time periods (so things can change also on ensembles at this range too):

162 hours out: 267E02A6-8238-4B7E-A85E-C2FC691EDA62.jpeg

72 hours out: BB96DD1B-0D27-48FE-A649-C619CEA5B8C6.jpeg
 
I took a look back at 7 days ago and what both the EPS and the op Euro were predicting for today at 00z.

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As you can see, they were in excellent agreement. So what does analysis look like this morning?

eps_z500a_namer_1.png

No surprise, the 168hr forecast was excellent when they were both in agreement. It's definitely remarkable for the Euro and it's operationals to be this out of step. Odds are, we're about to see movement towards one solution or the other today.
 
Allow me to be the first person to post a NWS disco for a storm threat this year...maybe? lol. Perhaps it doesn't pan out, but nice to be getting the winter started being in the game.

Low-amplitude ridging and sfc high pressure will migrate
thru the Southeast behind that feature; the next shortwave
crossing the south central CONUS early next week remains the one
to watch. Precip could develop with that feature as soon as
Monday, but more likely Monday night, and current model blend
temps are cold enough to feature a chance of wintry precip for a
portion of the CWA in those periods. The GFS and GEFS members
are generally colder and are more supportive of snow than the
ECMWF; the GDPS/GEPS are colder but more members keep the precip
south of the area.
 
Hypsometric said:
I took a look back at 7 days ago and what both the EPS and the op Euro were predicting for today at 00z.

View attachment 126017

View attachment 126018

As you can see, they were in excellent agreement. So what does analysis look like this morning?

View attachment 126019

No surprise, the 168hr forecast was excellent when they were both in agreement. It's definitely remarkable for the Euro and it's operationals to be this out of step. Odds are, we're about to see movement towards one solution or the other today.
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The good news is the individual ensembles are much more in agreement with the TPV dropping more eastward with a few supporting the op. So there is legit disagreement and not just smoothing.
 
The 0z Euro op from 12/12 had this:

ecmwf_z500_mslp_nhem_65.png

24 hours later, it has this for the same time period:

ecmwf_z500_mslp_nhem_61.png

They are similar, but I believe the differences in the blocking up north is affecting the lower latitude trough placement and configuration. One solution yields a much better pattern for us. The other (last night's) does not.

I would expect these changes to continue on the Ops out at range. That said, I get nervous when we continue to see depictions of a western trough. The atmosphere has a propensity to return to that state, so I don't like seeing it.

In any event, I'd probably lean toward the ensembles, but watch very closely to see if they show any run to run ticks toward the western trough solutions over a few cycles. That would be a big red flag.

However, even the 6z GFS Op looks like it would feature largely below normal temps around here, along with a winter storm chance or two. We've seen a lot worse through winters of late.
 
Forgive me as I haven't read thru the posts in here yet, but at the very end of the 06z GEFS run, the height pattern kind of washes out in the eastern U.S. and the temperature anomalies aren't all that impressive (first 2 images).

But the underlying fundamentals couldn't be any better, as the Aleutian Low is stout and in excellent position, and the Pacific Jet has moved equatorward (farther south) and extends to just north of Hawaii (last 2 images). I mean, that's pretty much exactly what we want to see out west as both of those scream -EPO/+PNA. So that's something to keep in mind when looking at the modeled pattern at the end of an ensemble run

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