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Pattern Dazzling December

Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Glad that first one worked out under 200hr because that crap it just pulled at 240 was disgusting and Its getting tossedView attachment 125978
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what a wild meteorological depiction, with both a bombing low and maxed out high pressure anomalies that stretch from seattle to bermuda, how weird. -nao opens the door for weird things to happen, and we will continue to see complete head-scratcher scenarios spit out after 200hr. dont laugh too hard though... one of those scenarios will eventually gain a foothold.
gfs_z500_vort_us_30.png

it's a real shame this peters out before it reaches my neck of the woods. some ticks with that northern stream lobe could change that.
 
ILMRoss said:
model depictions like this are a feature of the -nao, not a bug of the gfs. expect the unexpected.
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Even still, I’ve been following weather models for 20 years and I’ve never seen anything like that. We’ve all laughed at the GFS when it wants to plow a low into a well established CAD, but this is an entirely new one
 
Chazwin said:
If I remember correctly from last January, your model appeared to have a bias to suppress systems. Is this the case and if so has there been updates to it?
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In the newest version of the MMFS-R, the bias has not been noticed. The version you're referring to was 2 versions ago and the current version's scores are vastly superior to that one.
 
bouncycorn said:
In the newest version of the MMFS-R, the bias has not been noticed. The version you're referring to was 2 versions ago and the current version's scores are vastly superior to that one.
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Ok… good info. I just remembered that with the 2nd of last January’s storms, it was keeping all the precip east of I-95 until about
 
I mean that PNA AO EPO combo alone should kill every citrus tree in Florida…yet we have an anomalous ridge extending southeastward off the pole.73A14746-7E14-4439-A9B0-65546C5BB520.png
 
Chazwin said:
Ok… good info. I just remembered that with the 2nd of last January’s storms, it was keeping all the precip east of I-95 until about
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I've done a ton of work on the model since last winter and have invested a good bit of money in the infrastructure.. there's even a 1km local resolution now, generally centered in North Ga/Alabama (but can be moved around as needed).

Also created a data-viewing site (still under construction!) https://data.mesoscaleforecast.com
 
Chazwin said:
Even still, I’ve been following weather models for 20 years and I’ve never seen anything like that. We’ve all laughed at the GFS when it wants to plow a low into a well established CAD, but this is an entirely new one
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what i'll respond with though is, how many times over the last 20 years have we seen such robust arctic blocking?

as for the actual meteorology of it- massive trough tilting negative- this is about as fantasy megastorm look as you can get. the surface cyclone only got capped at 984mb because the rest of the ambient pressure was so high lol. to your point- this would be absolutely wild if it happened and this is not a serious solution. what i'm saying is, this pattern is likely going to produce something very weird and very perplexing and we may be viewing it with scrutiny because of how weird it is until it is 48 hours away.
gfs_z500_vort_us_43.png
 
ILMRoss said:
what i'll respond with though is, how many times over the last 20 years have we seen such robust arctic blocking?

as for the actual meteorology of it- massive trough tilting negative- this is about as fantasy megastorm look as you can get. the surface cyclone only got capped at 984mb because the rest of the ambient pressure was so high lol. to your point- this would be absolutely wild if it happened and this is not a serious solution. what i'm saying is, this pattern is likely going to produce something very weird and very perplexing and we may be viewing it with scrutiny because of how weird it is until it is 48 hours away.
gfs_z500_vort_us_43.png
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Great point about the lack of blocking in the last 2 decades and models not sure what to do with it. It’s just so strange to see a solution that wild and completely outside of what we typically see.
 
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