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Pattern Dazzling December

Definitely a very noticeable trend on the ensembles today towards a deeper trough over the Pacific NW & SW Canada thru the middle of next week.

Likely would delay the arrival of the cold somewhat leading into the Winter Solstice, but end up getting even colder in the long-run (esp around Christmas & beyond) because the wave pattern is more amplified & pumping more cold air out of Siberia & the polar cap down into the CONUS + Canada.
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
Absolutely fine with failing on the 20 system if we get this look a few days later. I mean this is just tremendous this ain’t going to cut into that HIGH (and while I know there will be a lot of people who say oh nooo delayed and denied coming.. it’s just not the same here in this scenario as what people have alluded to before the progression of a pattern like this is something we’ve seen and it has support from exactly what we went through last year) View attachment 125830View attachment 125832View attachment 125831
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The only thing most of us get out of that setup is rain besides some of you who may get ice. Bad look.
 
Arcc said:
The only thing most of us get out of that setup is rain besides some of you who may get ice. Bad look.
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Euro was definitely going to smack upper SE region .. I agree NC probably did the best but that storm was developing South and east it was not going for a cut seeing as a 1070 mb high was crashing in on top of it

But for 240 hours .. yeah I’ll take it
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
Euro was definitely going to smack upper SE region .. I agree NC probably did the best but that storm was developing South and east it was not going for a cut seeing as a 1070 mb high was crashing in on top of it

But for 240 hours .. yeah I’ll take it
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Yeah that’s a big ice look for us dews were in the single digits lol
 
1671753600-Y39NV6IsLxw.png
 
Rain Cold said:
The ridge axis is still too far west. The top rolls over and directs the flow back westward. The ULL NW of HI is no good. It needs to be farther east. All of this argues for lower heights in the west or maybe central US eventually. The block in NE Canada should squash the SE ridge, but the storm track is still not going to be favorable until you move the western ridge axis quite a bit east. There are ways to get there. But we keep wanting to get drawn back to maps that look like this, for some reason.
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Translation: we're doing a lot of table setting so far this winter, are we ever going to get to eat?

Comparison of EPS from yesterday's 12z run to today's 12z......all good moves here (well except less -NAO...boo)

TLVViNa.gif
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
Euro was definitely going to smack upper SE region .. I agree NC probably did the best but that storm was developing South and east it was not going for a cut seeing as a 1070 mb high was crashing in on top of it

But for 240 hours .. yeah I’ll take it
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Maybe NC area at most like I said if you like ice. LLJ already flowing good. Kentucky may do pretty well.

1670874348905.png
 
Not going to lie I'm off next week and i wouldn't mind seeing 70s until about Thursday to have some cool weather for the holiday. Need to get out to the course before then.

That said with the weak -nao and the first shot of cold other than a warm up ahead of a reload I just can't see a lot of sustained warm even in a non classic look
 
models rushed the -NAO and its associated change but it’s happening, models rushed the pacific change but imho with the progression I still think It happens, models just being models, pattern changes are always rushed. Even last Dec-Jan’s progression was rushed.
 
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