Heelyes
Member
Hillary! Jk
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Coronavirus (Stay on Topic)
- Thread starter GaWx
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snowlover91
Member
Yeah I’ve been thinking about our political leaders. No matter which side of the political spectrum a person is, last thing we want to see is a chunk of them become fatally ill with this stuff. Iran supposedly has lost some key leaders already and people like Trump, Sanders, Biden, etc would all be high risk. In addition the Supreme Court has people like Ginsburg that would be high risk too.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
I remember taking significant flak for saying something like this a few weeks ago & urging people not to immediately assume warmer weather will significantly hinder the CoV-19 andddd lo & behold...
Jon
Member
“End” and “disappear” are very different than saying warmer temperatures can slow down and decrease the overall rate of spread. I agreed back when this was a topic of discussion that saying it would make the coronavirus disappear or stop it completely was incorrect.
Heelyes
Member
Only because there are thousands still sick
I'm not really understanding the obsession with the fatality rate.
Heelyes
Member
A majority off all the people in charge of everything are in the high risk group. It's ironic the people that are not doing what needs to be done are most likely to suffer the consequences
Heelyes
Member
Exactly. If the death rate was really high but not many get it, no problem. If it's "low" and everyone gets it, bid problem
Jon
Member
The Southern Hemisphere still has flu seasons. For instance, Brazil’s start of their flu season is one month away..so you would expect their cases to continue to grow through the summer months.
What has yet to be seen is if Coronavirus cases continue to grow at a rapid pace through all of summer into winter here in the CONUS. If so, it will change conventional thinking about virus behavior in the medical community for decades to come.
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Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The takeaway in that tweet is that there’s still no substantial evidence that warmer temperatures are going to “significantly” slow the rate of spread of CoV-19 especially to the point where it basically dies off. I think it’ll be too little too late in any case for the US because the outbreak is well underway here. If the virus relents, which I think it very well could, we will probably see that some time in the summer & that’ll largely be due to a decreasing number of potential non-infected hosts and preventive measures that are already beginning to occur, with more significant ones probably forthcoming (shutting down businesses, travel, etc, etc.) and not due to warmer temps. There’s definitely concern that another outbreak will come knocking this fall and it remains to be seen how virulent said outbreak may be.
Heelyes
Member
All the numbers are useless right now because it's still happening and the virus hasn't run its course in most cases that are known. I don't think most people understand the magnitude of even 1 percent dying if a majority of the world gets this. Forget about understanding what 50 percent in the hospital and 20 in ICU means.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Cairo is forecast to be in well into the 80s tomorrow and potentially thru Wednesday of this coming week before cooling off slightly late in the week. Their temp climo in March is similar to ours in April. Very curious to see how the virus spreads there the next several weeks
Jon
Member
Well it could be both. Warmer temps mean people go outside more, spend less time indoors touching everything and coughing all over each other, too. Even if the virus can still circulate in warmer temps doesn’t mean it’s doing so at a significant pace, it may still be a bit hindered. But hoping it will disappear is most likely false hope.
Yeah I agree I don’t think it will die off, it will definitely pick back up by fall and by then we’d really need a vaccine. We’re likely to have two preventative vaccines for flu seasons to come, which is wild. I just am not so sure it will be ready and mass produced. We just went through a shortage in the pharmacy for the senior flu shot, it was backordered for months even though there was high demand...hundreds of thousands of seniors had to get the regular flu shot, which put them at risk this year.
I’m deeply concerned about next season, what’s happening now and the rate at which it’s spreading is concerning...but come fall if there’s not a suitable vaccine, very large numbers of elderly will be at risk. I hope the more virulent strain can be contained to China and that the mild strain is the one we are seeing globally. If not, we should prepare for the worst come next fall. There will be vaccine constraints, just hope it doesn’t lead to panic.
To put it in perspective, we just placed our flu shot orders. GSK and other companies are already producing them for the 2020-21 season, and the strains were already decided on.
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Jack Locke
Member
I think some labs around this country have promising experimental stuff, and if needed the big dogs could probably get it. It's not ready for the masses yet.
Not necessarily. Based on what I've read, it takes weeks to test negative for the virus, not weeks to recover. Also SK has less than a 1% In ICU atm.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Good point regarding indoor vs outdoor habits. I certainly hope so too &/or a new more virulent strain does not emerge. Even though CoV-19 really is nothing like it, it's hard not to think about to the Spanish Flu pandemic if we can't come up w/ a reliable vaccine by this coming fall. The second wave of the Spanish Flu was far more virulent/deadly than the first one.
campamy
Member
We closed on our home back in November 2018 with a 5% rate. Set to close on the 11th with our refi and we were looking at 3.75%. Just after noon yesterday they locked us in at 2.875% ?
How so? I think the 3.4% number is highly misleading. It matters as to how deadly the virus is. Why wouldn’t you want to know the mortality rate? The seasonal flu is .1 % right? 1 in a 1000? So if covid19 is one is 1 in 100 or 1 in 500 or 1 on 50 it makes a difference. This is highly contagious so you can assume a ton of people end up with it. I’d like to know....
FYI: Why Is There A Winter Flu Season?
An illustrated explanation of why the world's most obnoxious virus at least doesn't stick around all year.
www.popsci.com
I bet it is a combination of reasons, which includes being in close quarters and that cold/dry air makes it easier to spread (like what my linked article suggests). With the cruise ships, the very close quarters could very well be trumping the weather.
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It's official. Parts of Northern Italy is now on lockdown.
Jon
Member
Thousands of people don’t naturally share that square footage in any other capacity either so there’s that. Lol
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Flu virus survives longer in cold actually
The point isn't that knowing the case fatality rate isn't valuable. It is that it is but one component of this virus. A CFR of even ~1% with an R0 of 3+ and a serious complication rate of 10%+ has the potential and even the likelihood of causing severe strain on health services, social orders, and economies worldwide. The CFR is important, but isn't really the driving factor of the critical nature of this bug.
fair enough. My main point is the driving factor seems to be close proximity. I’m going to assume most transmissions happen indoors which takes tempature out of the equation. I really believe the whole “warm weather will save us” is a false hope. The rate at which it spreads indicates to me weather isn’t going to change this much.
Iceagewhereartthou
Member
I think the theory is based on the premise that cold dry air tends to dry out a person's nasal and bronchial passages which makes one more susceptible to the virus itself. Warmer moist air tends to allow passages the hold more mucus providing more natural defense against a virus. Then add lower proximity and you have a chance to reduce an outbreak.
campamy
Member
Yeah, but they are essentially floating petri dishes. Like someone else said about how the norovirus outbreaks spread on them. If you bought a ship to escape a disease, no matter how much you screened those brought on board and even if you sailed open waters without hitting port, it just takes one slip. Or one person's genetic makeup to ruin it. Call it chaos theory or whatever. Once that slip is made it's inevitable someone gets sick. You can have the best backup systems ever, water and air treatment systems, but a virus wants to live. I'd still travel right now, but wouldn't even consider a cruise.
Jack Locke
Member
This is encouraging, some of us fall into this high risk age group.
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