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Misc Cold Season Complaining

I’ve personally tried to tamp down on looking at model runs past D5-7. Obviously, as my posts indicate I’m all in once it gets to that stage and have posted too much and used up more time than I should’ve, but I’m at least committed to not spending much time looking at op runs 150+ hours away that don’t mean much. So really aside from 2-3 weeks this winter I haven’t spent a lot of time on this stuff. But this week I sure did, and my performance at work surely suffered from it, too. 😂

It’s funny that the most memorable storm for me won’t be the bigger one we got yesterday, but the 1” I got in January, simply because that was the same storm that gave the Gulf Coast their first Blizzard Warning in history and doubled Florida’s record snowfall. I think some of us undersell how historic that storm was and it was great to be a small part of it, even if it was only on the fringes. It’s insane that a part of Florida (!!!) got double digit snowfall, as did a lot coastal Louisiana and New Orleans. The thoughts of delusional snow weenies actually become reality, for once!
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Arctic Haze in late February. Elevation of about 5200 feet here where we are staying. After the wreck earlier we had to get towed 25 feet to a parking area then make two half mile hikes bringing the stuff from our car to the rental condo. After the first trip without my gloves (idiot) my finger tips were in so much pain I was convinced I had frost nip. They still hurt. I layered up for the second 1mile round trip to the car and back to get the rest of our stuff. High of 30 tomorrow should feel nice.

For the hobby View attachment 171179
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If youre at Beech you can get a 1br Condo up there on the The top at the resort 5500’ …. For like $150K. If this wife ever leaves me like the first that’s where I will be. Definitely won’t be in the CLT metro Dating pool again 0/2 is plenty


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Drizzle Snizzle said:
I'm not sure what the deal is with Moyock but they sure do have a lot of expensive homes there for it to be a small town in the middle of nowhere.
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"Middle of nowhere" Do some research bub! We're 20 minutes from the most populated city of Virginia, have some of the lowest tax rates around, surrounded by Military Installations, and 40 minutes from one of the top 5 vacation destinations on the east coast.
 
mx3gsr92 said:
"Middle of nowhere" Do some research bub! We're 20 minutes from the most populated city of Virginia, have some of the lowest tax rates around, surrounded by Military Installations, and 40 minutes from one of the top 5 vacation destinations on the east coast.
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You're 20 minutes away from Virginia Beach ? What I'm looking at says Moyock is 40-45 minutes from Virginia Beach.
 
WolfpackHomer91 said:
While I Respect and admire Yours as well as Stevo’s decision and Wish I could …. I say this every time, I’m done I won’t do this again. But if I log in Tomm and Fro or Burrell or Kylo are fired up about something I’m gonna be glued like a child till the suns out again. It’s insanity sure, but I will never stop loving the chase more than the storm. The last week with all yall was more fun than the 1.8” of snow. Hell, if anything that’s depressing bc now idk what to do with my time. It’s unhealthy but the only thing that gives me adrenaline rush like a good Clown map is Having 3/4 margaritas and Gambling/ Sweating a Ballgame. Neither are prolly gonna allow me to live past 2050


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TBH, I think I'm a lot worse about following my advise when 1) we haven't had any appreciable snow in years or 2) it's the first one of the season. After I realize how horrible guidance is again, I quickly revert back to my "senses", at least for a while. I'm sure come December and the signs of the first promising potential, I'll probably be back to tracking D10 threats again. And I mean no disrespect to anyone who does reel these in from that far out, as long as it works for you that's all that matters. The data is there to look at all you want after all haha.
 
mx3gsr92 said:
"Middle of nowhere" Do some research bub! We're 20 minutes from the most populated city of Virginia, have some of the lowest tax rates around, surrounded by Military Installations, and 40 minutes from one of the top 5 vacation destinations on the east coast.
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Okay that last sentence may be a stretch
 
Ross said:
i will never stop tracking d10 threats, i will never stop trusting models, and i will never stop assuming the best possible trend or solution for me is just around the corner. these are facts
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it's easier if you just assume your success rate is gonna be right around the mendoza line. Of course, at least 25 years in this for me has left quite a callous so busts dont bother me like they used to when I was younger.
 
1300m said:
TBH, I think I'm a lot worse about following my advise when 1) we haven't had any appreciable snow in years or 2) it's the first one of the season. After I realize how horrible guidance is again, I quickly revert back to my "senses", at least for a while. I'm sure come December and the signs of the first promising potential, I'll probably be back to tracking D10 threats again. And I mean no disrespect to anyone who does reel these in from that far out, as long as it works for you that's all that matters. The data is there to look at all you want after all haha.
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Not even gonna lie.... Id start tonight If one of yall posted a clown for Next Sunday or something id be all in ... sadly. Like Ross said every 4 hrs I think my trend is about to show on every model suite 🤣
 
Ross said:
i will never stop tracking d10 threats, i will never stop trusting models, and i will never stop assuming the best possible trend or solution for me is just around the corner. these are facts
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The further south you are, the worse that mentality is for your mental health lol.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
It’s only a couple months out of the year on a GOOD year that we even get to sniff the opportunity to do this. Although it is very time consuming at times. There will be times you are more passionate about it than others. Every year is not the same. Ebbs and flows. This has been one of those exceptional years where we had a lot of things going on so it ate up a lot of time and for several locations it all seemed to be in vain. It’s tough. You’ll have that on them big jobs. We will 100% get another good snow here in due time.
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I 100% agree with this. We haven't had this many active threats/patterns to track in a winter season since 2014/2015.

It sucks they largely didn't pan out for the upstate, but it still beats most of the recent winters that are completely dead and boring, and usually only include 1 or 2 legitimate threats if we're lucky.

Another crazy stat for the Upstate that makes me shake my head:

Imagine if someone told you "I am not going to tell you what happens in South Carolina this winter, but there are going to be three Southeastern winter storms this year and each one will drop significant snowfall (3+ inches) in Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, and North Carolina."

That's what happened... and if someone told me that I would have been disappointed with less than a foot here in the northwestern corner of SC.

All you can do is sigh.
 
BullCityWx said:
I wonder if we were back in 2000 with this last event if the models would've handled it similarly and all of us would've been expecting 18+
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As a kid, December 2000 was horrifying. At least it wasn’t long after January 2000 and not long before January 2002 and December 2002, so we made up for it. Not as painful in those cases, not that it doesn’t still hurt.

December 2000 was Van Denton’s “a foot of snow to a foot of sunshine” storm.
 
superjames1992 said:
As a kid, December 2000 was horrifying. At least it wasn’t long after January 2000 and not long before January 2002 and December 2002, so we made up for it. Not as painful in those cases, not that it doesn’t still hurt.

December 2000 was Van Denton’s “a foot of snow to a foot of sunshine” storm.
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December 2000 was a lot worse when you only got 6" in January 2000 and thought this was going to be the redemption storm....somehow I have lived in Wake and Johnston County 39 years and managed an all-time single event record of only 8" (December 2018).
 
BullCityWx said:
it's easier if you just assume your success rate is gonna be right around the mendoza line. Of course, at least 25 years in this for me has left quite a callous so busts dont bother me like they used to when I was younger.
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I don’t post often but I’ve been reading QueenCityWx bufkit posts for as long as I can remember and these still hurt me far more than I’d like to admit lol.

But a lot of the fun for me is in the tracking and this has been a blockbuster year for that at least. Helps to take some of the sting away from the misses when I look at it like this. Would be nice to get a payout once in a while tho!
 
probably honestly have the March 1-15th window for one more legit threat, then March 15th and on we switch to a pattern conductive of severe weather but struggle in east areas due to losing forcing/shortwave ridging etc. bet CAE sees 87 in between that 15th-30th window
 
1300m said:
The further south you are, the worse that mentality is for your mental health lol.
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That was one thing good about living in Florida. I largely avoided the stress of following this stuff, except when we got a dusting in January 2018 (I was in the panhandle so technically we had some snow chances but it’d a once a decade type thing). I guess if I stayed there I would’ve gotten a big sleet storm in January of this year, too, their biggest “snowfall” since the 1950s. But yeah we almost live in the worst area for being a snow weenie…far enough south that we hardly ever get any but far enough north that we have plenty of threats to track, and thus plenty of disappointments. Honestly, I don’t know how some of you all further south in GA, AL, etc. do it. I go mad tracking this stuff with my snowfall average in the 5”+ range; I seriously might lose my mind tracking this stuff if my annual average was like 1”.
 
rburrel2 said:
I 100% agree with this. We haven't had this many active threats/patterns to track in a winter season since 2014/2015.

It sucks they largely didn't pan out for the upstate, but it still beats most of the recent winters that are completely dead and boring, and usually only include 1 or 2 legitimate threats if we're lucky.

Another crazy stat for the Upstate that makes me shake my head:

Imagine if someone told you "I am not going to tell you what happens in South Carolina this winter, but there are going to be three Southeastern winter storms this year and each one will drop significant snowfall (3+ inches) in Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, and North Carolina."

That's what happened... and if someone told me that I would have been disappointed with less than a foot here in the northwestern corner of SC.

All you can do is sigh.
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It's going to take a once in a lifetime miracle for upstate SC and the Charlotte area to get good snow and it might take 10-20 plus years to get it.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
probably honestly have the March 1-15th window for one more legit threat, then March 15th and on we switch to a pattern conductive of severe weather but struggle in east areas due to losing forcing/shortwave ridging etc. bet CAE sees 87 in between that 15th-30th window
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Drought is going to be the big story this spring and summer just like 2002 and 2007.
 
I’ve seen snow fall from three different events so not necessarily complaining but can’t we get just one solid 3” plus event from Athens to Charlotte and then it can get warm and I will be ready for it then.
 
I've joked that weather models breaking containment from the weather nerd forums to social media, such as Reddit/Xitter, show that things have gone too far haha.

Well, I now know that it's broken containment to my hairdresser as of today. She was watching the models this January because she wanted to see snow haha.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
I need yall folks to be mentally prepared for our storm that’s gonna pop up between the 5-10th. It’s coming. Get rest accordingly before
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Winter is moving into the 9th inning and is almost outta gas, but she got one more fastball left.
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