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Misc Cold Season Complaining

WolfpackHomer91 said:
It was alone in Early Jan… we all laughed it out of the room. It started showing that warm nose dang near to Frosty and we laughed…. Well


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Certainly a bit different this time though, the NAM was throwing out similar H5 evolutions to other modeling that event and still had a massive warm nose, this time it’s throwing H5 evolutions way out of the ballpark of any consensus, and especially out west as well, which is why it’s so warm. Certainly willing to bet it’s wrong and gonna correct slowly
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Certainly a bit different this time though, the NAM was throwing out similar H5 evolutions to other modeling that event and still had a massive warm nose, this time it’s throwing H5 evolutions way out of the ballpark of any consensus, and especially out west as well, which is why it’s so warm. Certainly willing to bet it’s wrong and gonna correct slowly
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Nah you know better than me. Hopefully it meets in the middle…. Keeps its juice but takes the Cold from others lol


I’ve given up the monster QPF… but maybe we can sneak into .4 - .6” QpF range again

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Myfrotho704_ said:
Certainly a bit different this time though, the NAM was throwing out similar H5 evolutions to other modeling that event and still had a massive warm nose, this time it’s throwing H5 evolutions way out of the ballpark of any consensus, and especially out west as well, which is why it’s so warm. Certainly willing to bet it’s wrong and gonna correct slowly
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At this point, I'd just track the Euro AI models until Tuesday, then switch to NAM/RGEM. Seems like AIs are leading the way here and have been for a couple days now.
 
Ik it’s an outlier …. But If as a State we all Rain again , my sincere apologies I jumped the gun taunting other forums …. I caused the JuJu to change


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Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Tracking a rain snow mix while Brent gets 8” of zero degree snow. Tough hobby
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To be fair right now we're at 3-5 😂

They are assuming a lot of sleet and freezing rain at the onset... Assuming

With an extreme cold watch down to Waco Texas of all places... I mean you're halfway to the Gulf there

Something isn't adding up to me
 
LickWx said:
Has anyone extrapolated the icon to account for the warm bias so we can see what it’s really saying????? @Jimmy Hypocracy ?
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Do we have evidence the ICON is actually warm-biased? I read that a lot, but haven't researched it myself. Would certainly love it to be true, LOL.
 
superjames1992 said:
Do we have evidence the ICON is actually warm-biased? I read that a lot, but haven't researched it myself. Would certainly love it to be true, LOL.
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Idk man I don’t ever hear about the icons warm bias till it starts spitting out outcomes like it just did now… that’s why I’m dubious
 
To my untrained Eye , .4 QPF…. creeping back west right up to probably Cabbarus - Rowan’s eastern borders. .6” line is right at Stanly / Eastern Union


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jmorris said:
I think it just sucks.
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Yeah...if it wasn't the first global model out the door we'd probably just ignore it, but when you're begging for table scraps, you'll take all the crap you can get. If the JMA ran first, we'd probably pay attention to it, too. :D
 
SD said:
It's not, warm bias gets thrown around here when models have a reality bias
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But wait …. Has the data been sampled? …. Quote this at 1AM tonight when this thing is in Frosty and Luke Barrett’s lap again lol


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WolfpackHomer91 said:
But wait …. Has the data been sampled? …. Quote this at 1AM tonight when this thing is in Frosty and Luke Barrett’s lap again lol


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Leave my name out, I forfeit this storm to RDU! lol
Looking for some 70s round the curve!!!
 
mid atlantic snow weenies all rabidly posting the 18z NAM and ignoring everything else lmao, bless their hearts
 
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I understand mid levels ect …. But for goodness sake whoever is praying for this Southern trend to continue…. You’ve had 30hrs now, stop it Will ya? You’re about to shred this thing into nothing and won’t have to even worry about Any level of the atmosphere bc it will be cloudy n dry. If Precip is this light as depicted I’d expect temps to bump up 3-4 degrees than modeled at surface Jmo


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LickWx said:
You chasing this storm or just ranting about the mid Atlantic weenies? Unhealthy
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i mean, the person above me had just mentioned how they were incessantly Doofus on Webber; i was adding a comment of my own. overall, no, I'm not focused on what they're doing and am certainly more focused on what the storm is doing instead
 
LickWx said:
You chasing this storm or just ranting about the mid Atlantic weenies? Unhealthy
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Everybody on here fighting I’m just over here trying to figure out if that big lobe of NW flow swings into Avery co and gives me another 2-4 Thursday on top of the 5-6 Wednesday
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Everybody on here fighting I’m just over here trying to figure out if that big lobe of NW flow swings into Avery co and gives me another 2-4 Thursday on top of the 5-6 Wednesday
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Jimmy you getting snow don’t even got to worry about the details! Now outside the mountains it looks like the jackpot is wake forest Zebulon northeast, gon be some broken hearts in Pittsboro , Charlotte , Greensboro, Shane is in a good enough spot tho , unless Joe bastardi is right and we get rain
 
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As of now…. For fun, there’s your best zone for that 6-12” James mentioned. Reidsville - Williamsburg. Like I said Gimme South Boston to Emporia someone on that line is the Storm wide winner


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