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Misc Cold Season Complaining

Little Rock, Memphis, Tupelo.. Nashville..... Mid South. Yay.
Don’t fret too much yet. That first system we had in January showed an 8-12” swath in east Texas at this lead which turned into them sweating bullets for a couple inches the day of the storm. When they start to trend downward in the cold/snow department (which they probably will) eastern locations will begin to look a little better.
 
Don’t fret too much yet. That first system we had in January showed an 8-12” swath in east Texas at this lead which turned into them sweating bullets for a couple inches the day of the storm. When they start to trend downward in the cold/snow department (which they probably will) eastern locations will begin to look a little better.
For sure. I know it'll take a miracle where I live so I am not expecting anything here. But it would be awesome to fill in the snow gap in the Carolinas. I wish this storm would happen on the weekend so I can ride up that way.
 
Ok so -

EURO ENS -

Raleigh - 36/50 Members with "MEASURABLE" snow 1" or more the other 14 nothing to 1/2"

Triad - 41/50 Members with "MEASURABLE" snow 1" or more 7 of the other 9 have 1/2" totals.... only 2-3 have nothing

Richmond VA - 50/50 Members have 6 feet or more :D

I mean what else can we ask for at Day 6
 
Ok so -

EURO ENS -

Raleigh - 36/50 Members with "MEASURABLE" snow 1" or more the other 14 nothing to 1/2"

Triad - 41/50 Members with "MEASURABLE" snow 1" or more 7 of the other 9 have 1/2" totals.... only 2-3 have nothing

Richmond VA - 50/50 Members have 6 feet or more :D

I mean what else can we ask for at Day 6
EPS very clearly has the strongest signal in VA and looking at H5 right now, it's hard to disagree. If you want measurable snow, you want to be in the heart of the ensemble mean at this range (although TBH it's still so far out it's pretty meaningless). Fringe = heartache. I should coin that.
ecmwf-ensemble-avg-se-snow_24hr_ge_1-0074400.png
 
EPS very clearly has the strongest signal in VA and looking at H5 right now, it's hard to disagree. If you want measurable snow, you want to be in the heart of the ensemble mean at this range. Fringe = heartache. I should coin that.
View attachment 168653
Yea, im in that 50/60% Range but yea it clearly even shows I-85 in NC basically where the Yellow lines up.... I dont have access to the products but would there not be some ICE along and south? Since this is just for Snow accumulation.
 
Ok so -

EURO ENS -

Raleigh - 36/50 Members with "MEASURABLE" snow 1" or more the other 14 nothing to 1/2"

Triad - 41/50 Members with "MEASURABLE" snow 1" or more 7 of the other 9 have 1/2" totals.... only 2-3 have nothing

Richmond VA - 50/50 Members have 6 feet or more :D

I mean what else can we ask for at Day 6
Idk. Maybe some other support from other models?
 
Yea, im in that 50/60% Range but yea it clearly even shows I-85 in NC basically where the Yellow lines up.... I dont have access to the products but would there not be some ICE along and south? Since this is just for Snow accumulation.
Most likely but obviously the exact structure and track of the storm will dictate all of that. We're always on the edge for another 33-35F and rain around our parts.
 
Somehow winter weather knows where the state line is and REFUSES to cross into SC, and the models all know this too. Apparently the only way SC will ever get snow again is from a freak coastal. Have fun and congrats to the people in TN, NC, and VA that get in on it.

Edit: ICON doesn't count... its the ICON. :rolleyes:
 
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Has anyone factored in the icons warm bias yet? When we account for the warm bias it’s actually showing 60 inches of snow all the way to Miami, the warm biased Germans don’t want you to know the truth
 
EPS very clearly has the strongest signal in VA and looking at H5 right now, it's hard to disagree. If you want measurable snow, you want to be in the heart of the ensemble mean at this range (although TBH it's still so far out it's pretty meaningless). Fringe = heartache. I should coin that.
View attachment 168653

I agree. The EPS has a decent total for mby, which is nice. Buts it’s still fringe in the footprint of the storm. Right now, it’s another Virginia storm imo, I think because of the stupid SE ridging that won’t get beaten all the way down. Hopefully the blocking does work and pushes it down enough we can keep the track south enough to keep NC in the game.
 
I agree. The EPS has a decent total for mby, which is nice. Buts it’s still fringe in the footprint of the storm. Right now, it’s another Virginia storm imo, I think because of the stupid SE ridging that won’t get beaten all the way down. Hopefully the blocking does work and pushes it down enough we can keep the track south enough to keep NC in the game.
You nailed it. Perfect analysis and 100% captures the situation at this time IMO.
 
The weenie in me selfishly doesn't exactly mind an ice event, I think the first January storm was the first time in literally years there was an actual prolonged ZR event down there.
 
The weenie in me selfishly doesn't exactly mind an ice event, I think the first January storm was the first time in literally years there was an actual prolonged ZR event down there.
I Used to wish for all snow ect... but now ive come to love (and miss) the storms as a kid growing up here in 90s/00s.... Now ive landed on the idea of perfection is 6-8" SN / 1" Sleet / and 1/4" - 1/2" ICE on top that would be my fav. IK ppl will gasp at some of the ICE maps were gonna see over the next few days but man, that garbage is always 70% Overdone at minimum. If even the FRAM shows 3/4" ICE thats probably a 1/10 - 1/4" Forecast amount. But still cant wait to see the "Yikes" "Lights out" post soon and sit here and 😂
 
I Used to wish for all snow ect... but now ive come to love (and miss) the storms as a kid growing up here in 90s/00s.... Now ive landed on the idea of perfection is 6-8" SN / 1" Sleet / and 1/4" - 1/2" ICE on top that would be my fav. IK ppl will gasp at some of the ICE maps were gonna see over the next few days but man, that garbage is always 70% Overdone at minimum. If even the FRAM shows 3/4" ICE thats probably a 1/10 - 1/4" Forecast amount. But still cant wait to see the "Yikes" "Lights out" post soon and sit here and 😂

Give me any type of disruptive winter weather storm. Kids out of school, stuff shuts down, fun. Anything you can sled on is completely acceptable.
 
I've been realized this lol. It's the MA's year this winter
Majority of peeps want to see my area getting bullseye with snow 6 days out to feel confident further North.

Instead my area was sleet and ice and well, we see what's going to happen now.

The funny thing is, there are a few ways to actually get winter weather out of this thing, it's just not likely. Slowing down the wave I think would help, but what would I know.
 
It is. But I think we do get scraps this time in NC. Red dot is me. Let's ice RAGE!! lol.

View attachment 168735
I Want More GIF
 
Majority of peeps want to see my area getting bullseye with snow 6 days out to feel confident further North.

Instead my area was sleet and ice and well, we see what's going to happen now.

The funny thing is, there are a few ways to actually get winter weather out of this thing, it's just not likely. Slowing down the wave I think would help, but what would I know.
We may have a rough Sunday morning coming. It is beginning to look a lot like the Dec 29 event, when several tornados touched down. GSP does not think the CAD holds up for this one.
 
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