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Misc Cold Season Complaining

LickWx said:
Apparently someone on the mid Atlantic forum said this might be the most +PNA DJF ever, bro and it ain’t even been that cold that’s crazy! New climo …

Jk, but the arctic been on fire and looking at models we askin for early start to melt I think, Hudson froze late and the warmth is right on its doorsteps now, thaw it out early
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With this setup back in the 1980s we’d be -10F for DJF and have 80” of snow. Things don’t work like they used to. 🎶
 
superjames1992 said:
With this setup back in the 1980s we’d be -10F for DJF and have 80” of snow. Things don’t work like they used to. 🎶
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Idk bout that but yeah nah I think a setup like this woulda been colder maybe, we still get bouts of cold but no 80s type stuff. Honestly the 80s were like a colder 2010s. That’s when the arctic started to roast really

Which means the 2020s are the 90s and the late 20s will hit Carolina with many hurricanes then Shane gets his jan 2000 in 2030
 
WolfpackHomer91 said:
Dude ….. with these Dadgum Eastern tracking storms lol …. Ik it’s not set im literally just talking. But I swear since 2021 this Flat strung out Positive trough garbage …. Like can we not get a Negative Tilted bomb just once


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Miller As sometime you run that risk. Timing of phases is crucial. It’s really hard for us to snow.
 
WolfpackHomer91 said:
Right on Cue ….@1300m as we start Day 6 runs …. Fly is starting to enter the ointment


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Perhaps, but D6 => D4 is ensemble time. Op runs are prone to bounce around, possibly significantly, the next few days.
 
1300m said:
Perhaps, but D6 => D4 is ensemble time. Op runs are prone to bounce around, possibly significantly, the next few days.
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Yeah, really need to be assessing the pattern and start to rely on Ops inside D5 (or closer). I think the take-away is that the pattern isn't ideal but still supports possibilities. And several options are on the table. No way to know how it shakes out yet.
 
1300m said:
Perhaps, but D6 => D4 is ensemble time. Op runs are prone to bounce around, possibly significantly, the next few days.
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Is it a phase atmosphere wise we’re in? I mean I hear yall talk MJO this -NAO that…. This block, that block …. Then everytime day 6 it’s not even a new F you…. It’s the same one lol “Northern stream too involved”
Or “Welp it’s sheared out” like does this pattern stuff really even matter if it’s gonna do the EXACT same thing every time dang near at the same time in the game


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I have a higher chance of this landing in my yard than winter weather.
gzz7occgptie1.jpeg
 
CNCsnwfan1210 said:
**Lean on the ensembles right now, we’re still ~6-7 days out **


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They've let me down time and time again this year. Somethings off this year, been numerous times when ops looked bad and ens looked great, eventually the op was correct. Hopefully this time is different 🙏
 
That warm front is still struggling lol, haven’t been able to sleep and just looked and it’s still…drumroll please……mid 40’s.

Edit: nevermind ha, the official stations at least are in the mid 50’s, although that’s still probably about 5 degrees off from the forecast.

Edit2: I’ll take back the above nevermind, it is mid 40’s still in my area. 10+ degree bust. Wonder if it leads to it just hitting the mid 60’s after we clear up.
 
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Ok, what is happening ? .....I wake up to 7 post by @Myfrotho704_ talking about everything being good and improving then 3 post later random posters ....."Nope Apps Runner" "Next week thrreat is VA n North only" like which is it? goodlord. And my fav "its trending" after one operational Model run.....
 
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WolfpackHomer91 said:
Ok, what is happening ? .....I wake up to 7 post by @Myfrotho704_ talking about everything being good and improving then 3 post later random posters ....."Nope Apps Runner" "Next week thrreat is VA n North only" like which is it? goodlord
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No global models are showing anything goof for winter weather lovers other than the CMC. Trends overall have been discouraging to say the least. We've been burned so many times by ensembles this winter
 
Bigedd09 said:
No global models are showing anything goof for winter weather lovers other than the CMC. Trends overall have been discouraging to say the least. We've been burned so many times by ensembles this winter
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I read every post from 1A fwd last night .....everything Fro posted was better, everything you and Tennessee Man or w/e posted was nope going the wrong way.... But there was no pics ect, just nope apps runner , nope VA only. Like dude even if it was its one run of an operational model and were 6 days out. Thats not a "TREND". And, NO GLOBALS ARE SHOWING ANYTHING" dude theres 7 screenshots in there showing the opposite from @Myfrotho704_ im not trying to be an asshole, but if this is just to be funny its not. Atleast show a pic or something to prove your theory as to why it went worse ect
 
WolfpackHomer91 said:
I read every post from 1A fwd last night .....everything Fro posted was better, everything you and Tennessee Man or w/e posted was nope going the wrong way.... But there was no pics ect, just nope apps runner , nope VA only. Like dude even if it was its one run of an operational model and were 6 days out. Thats not a "TREND". And, NO GLOBALS ARE SHOWING ANYTHING" dude theres 7 screenshots in there showing the opposite from @Myfrotho704_ im not trying to be an asshole, but if this is just to be funny its not. Atleast show a pic or something to prove your theory as to why it went worse ect
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Ensembles trended better overnight, but ensembles have performed rather poorly this winter.
 
WolfpackHomer91 said:
Ok, what is happening ? .....I wake up to 7 post by @Myfrotho704_ talking about everything being good and improving then 3 post later random posters ....."Nope Apps Runner" "Next week thrreat is VA n North only" like which is it? goodlord. And my fav "its trending" after one operational Model run.....
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There are a lot of posters on here you can block out but Fro isn’t one of them. That 00z eps run was pretty dang good. Even that massive cut/runner on the euro last night had a pretty stout wedge east of the mountains. Need a few things to go our way over the next couple days but trends like this 👇🏽 on the GEFS should eventually show results. I’d still feel hopeful if I were anywhere in NC. Favoring elevation in WNC and northeastward from their heavily atm. IMG_1489.gif
 
Bigedd09 said:
Ensembles trended better overnight, but ensembles have performed rather poorly this winter.
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I understand, but there was a post last night about why ensembles have sucked this year.... theyll have 3-6 big dogs then nothing and skew our mean. The overall spread for this one is different creating our 3-4" mean. 48/51 members at 1-6" is better way better and realistic than 3 to even 10 members showing 8-10" and the other 40 have zero lol
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
There are a lot of posters on here you can block out but Fro isn’t one of them. That 00z eps run was pretty dang good. Even that massive cut/runner on the euro last night had a pretty stout wedge east of the mountains. Need a few things to go our way over the next couple days but trends like this 👇🏽 on the GEFS should eventually show results. I’d still feel hopeful if I were anywhere in NC. Favoring elevation in WNC and northeastward from their heavily atm. View attachment 168645
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Oh yea agreed, wasnt trying to be rude to anyone .... but my post was def in favor of giving Fro Props lol Hes one I listen to for sure
 
SD said:
I love the posters that pop in make a statement disappear for 24-36 hours pop back in make a 100% opposite statement then repeat. I bet they wonder why they get negative reactions to their posts
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yep like I expacted roanoaks wins here big storm for them. feet even. Large swath 30-40” sharp cutoff at VA/NC border with severe WX south. Large wedge tornados and straightline wind damage. WSW could go out as early as Sunday around 2:45pm per sources
 
BullCityWx said:
You dont see Steph Curry fundamentally change his shot when he's been in a slump. Shooters keep shooting and it works itself out. Fundamentals tell me at this range I damn near trust my life with the EPS.
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Yea, i mean I never even thought of the whole spread thing or cared to look in past threats but yea... The other ones did seem to be skewed by big dogs, I also vividly remember Day 6 and onward they went to crap. This is only time ensembles have gotten better at day6 but id hvae to go back and look of course. Either way if they continue to roll or hold I think by Sat 00Z suit we will have a good idea where were heading either way
 
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