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Misc Cold Season Complaining

Just went back and looked at the 0z Canadian. Big hit with the storm at day 6/7 and then it shows this at day 10:

1737033372170.pngAnd this would have been after more than an inch of freezing rain has fallen from NE Mississippi, northern Alabama and GA, upstate SC, through central NC. ........but just pretty/scary pictures right now...
 
Well, it was a good chance at snow next week and we completely blew it. But, atleast Raleigh and a lot of us in the SE got to see snow/sleet for the first time in 3 years. And yeah, it was only 0.5" but that's probably about as good as we can do going forward in any winter.
 
CMC Ensembles is the only thing keeping me hanging on at this point. EPS is a heartbreaker, but we had a warning last night with the AIFS went suppressed.
 
Faco Thomas said:
We got teased by these 2-4 inch snow means on the EPS and GEFS into that this will be different and that actually believed the Carolina actually had a real shot at getting a big storm. We all got fooled. Maybe it's time to fully accept that it's easier snow in Dallas than in Raleigh and easier to snow in San Antonio than Columbia these days.
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I'm not and have never been a fan of getting hyped up over ensemble means..in fact more times than not i think they aren't even useful. However this cliff jumping is premature. If one has been in this game for more than a minute it's not unusual at all to see models do this very thing in the 3 to 5 or 6 day range. Its almost comical for folks to think it's normal or expected to see 7 straight days of huge hits on every run. I've lost count how many times I've seen this pattern over the past 30 years. Despite having more models than ever this problem persists and I'm not sure it can ever be corrected unless there is a huge increase in direct observations in the pacific...and elsewhere. That's not to say it couldn't be dry because we can't get the energy to dig but folks should at least try to not get overly emotional over a couple of model runs for a system that is still 5 plus days away.
 
What I’m looking for at 12z is the operationals to at least go back to showing snow for the gulf coast and sc/nc beaches. We need a storm being modeled before we can expect it to trend northwest. The ensembles still really like those areas so I think it’s maybe even likely that comes back today
 
Im no expert .... but, I will say If you dont know what youre looking at with 100% skill and certainty, id ONLY pay attention to a few ppls post in the threads, Twitter ect. Funny its the same ppl yearly that show their hand that they model hug bc they cry or rejoice after one session of runs. A "TREND" is like 4 straight cycles of good or bad...jmo. Soooo much false negativity in the main thread, but if youll notice those of us in here who do this for actual U.S Currency ....arent waivering, same on twitter actual Mets are saying "Still looks good for next week but too early for specifics" Not dissing anyone as we have some fantastic hobbyist in here, but outside of the select few, if youre new here or dont know how to decipher be careful whos post youre putting merrit into
 
So now the people that know what they’re talking about are saying the arctic air will push moisture away to the coast leaving West of the coast dry. If the coast gets snow it’ll be the second time they’ve had it since the last time CAE has had snow.
 
Wake up and:
Losing Oh No GIF by Star Now
 
Great start to todays model runs with the 6z GFS
Two more shifts like that, I’m getting a foot of snow! Reel it in boys! 1737039981937.png
 
Flo said:
So now the people that know what they’re talking about are saying the arctic air will push moisture away to the coast leaving West of the coast dry. If the coast gets snow it’ll be the second time they’ve had it since the last time CAE has had snow.
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Wrong.
 
Metwannabe said:
I'm sorry but I know I'm the "worst" mod for deleting one liners, etc but my thought process is if one can, all can, and if 5 or 6 decide to do the same all of a sudden you're having to weed through dozens of post to get to good discussion. So please quote the post and post it in banter or just go there to type up those excited one line post.

Thanks, Meanager
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I appreciate this approach. I have actually deleted some of my own posts with model analysis because someone else already beat me to it and I didn't notice before I posted. No point in having redundancy.
 
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