44/17 still pretty breezy
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Pattern Caperil 2021
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Not bad, my overall forecasted pattern for this past March did decent going off background state things, trop forcing, etc 
CMC is a train of thunderstorms over and over again
Geez
Better...
CMC makes the pacific pattern so bad, that it saves us
olhausen
Member
Got down to 24 degrees this morning. One more night of freezing temps and that might be it till next fall. As for me I’m out till then since baseball has started and I’ll be playing fantasy baseball. See you all next winter for hopefully a cold and snowy one.
GFS backed off some for MLCAPE still juicy
?
Yep, definitely a much better looking GFS run.
Only thing I don’t like about Dallas is how boring there summers are and the cap, and lack of snow, but storms there are definitely better when they occur
Indeed to the bolded.
Cap busters and ridge riders (which Dallas also gets, see 6/9/19) are always the best type of T'storms.
CraggyRider
Member
1:30 PM April 2nd and its 38 F IMBY, winter in April no bueno? Not going to make average mid January high today.
BTW, 25 F to start the day
BTW, 25 F to start the day
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Here comes a weenie euro run for storms 
Day 2 
Day 3 
And to end it off ??
but wait there’s more ?????
cd2play
Member
Yay. Next weekend is going to be 50 degrees and showery.
Euro is a really good run to get some MCVs under that upper level low originating from the western SE/Oklahoma all the way to the Carolinas
12z EURO and GGEM both look significantly different as well.
The eastern trough that has been advertised is barely even a thing on either model.
The eastern trough that has been advertised is barely even a thing on either model.
I think part of what the models are struggling with too is the MJO.
Typically, Phases 5 is warm here, and Phase 6 is warm across much of the eastern 2/3rds of the US.
Typically, Phases 5 is warm here, and Phase 6 is warm across much of the eastern 2/3rds of the US.
Interesting how phase 6 would do with blocking
Ugh we have to wait all the way until late next week .. bleh
But when you see snow 360 hours out
Omg lock it in maybe it’s coming !!!!!
pattern supports storms in all honesty next week, might be multiple days, especially if a cutoff stalls to our NW, unless you want the GFS colder solution and 1-2 days of storms then done
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
That’s about as good looking of a sounding as you’ll ever see for large hail around the SE US. Hodograph is classic with lots of low level shear and purely directional above 1-1.5km/long straight hodo in mid-upper levels. Lots of cape, low freezing levels, steep mid level lapse rates and a plentiful dew point depression in a large hail growth zone. Yikes
Yep, similar Hodograph that gave me quarter sized hail a week + ago with a golf ball report to my west in huntersville
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Soundings like that is how you get hail the size of mini vans
yeah, that sounding from MS looks dryline esque, no wonder those dryline sups have mega hail
Also Here was the forecasted sounding from the HRRR here before the hail storm a week ago
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Yeah the one you showed earlier is significantly more nasty than this.
Yep, which is what makes that sounding from miss crazy
From GSP
Guidance has continued to trend towards a
complex weather pattern which greatly lowers forecast confidence
beyond Wednesday. Wednesday, possibly into Thursday will be warm and
mostly dry with gradually increasing clouds under short-wave
ridging. An occluding or vertically stacked low pressure system is
expected to eject out of the plains towards our part of the world
Thursday or Friday. This system will at least briefly become cut-off
from the main jet stream (which will suppressed well into Canada
under a anomalously strong ridge). This typically supports slower
and more erratic movement of storm systems which lowers overall
forecaster confidence. Delayed forecasted cooling trends
associated with this system in particular with the idea that the
system will likely be slow on approach. When the system does
arrive we may be well entrenched in the warm sector, possibly
promoting a risk for strong to severe thunderstorms or excessive
rainfall. If the system meanders close by as some models
suggest, associate rain/thunder chances could persist for two-
three days with considerably cooler conditions when the cold
core stacked low passes overhead the area.
Guidance has continued to trend towards a
complex weather pattern which greatly lowers forecast confidence
beyond Wednesday. Wednesday, possibly into Thursday will be warm and
mostly dry with gradually increasing clouds under short-wave
ridging. An occluding or vertically stacked low pressure system is
expected to eject out of the plains towards our part of the world
Thursday or Friday. This system will at least briefly become cut-off
from the main jet stream (which will suppressed well into Canada
under a anomalously strong ridge). This typically supports slower
and more erratic movement of storm systems which lowers overall
forecaster confidence. Delayed forecasted cooling trends
associated with this system in particular with the idea that the
system will likely be slow on approach. When the system does
arrive we may be well entrenched in the warm sector, possibly
promoting a risk for strong to severe thunderstorms or excessive
rainfall. If the system meanders close by as some models
suggest, associate rain/thunder chances could persist for two-
three days with considerably cooler conditions when the cold
core stacked low passes overhead the area.
Currently 70*F at DFW.
The high/mid-level cloud deck has moved in now. Should stick around for much of the weekend.
The high/mid-level cloud deck has moved in now. Should stick around for much of the weekend.
GFS is getting closer and closer to looking like the euro/CMC
What a trend to the other models 
Hahahaha fro.. my guy I’m on your side I want storms .. I was just complaining have to wait until next week... haha I might need to joke less often so people don’t think I’m attacking them ??
Not bad 
SWVAwxfan
Member
Can verify. We indeed had snow flurries and even some decent snow showers late last night.