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August Rush (2 Viewers)

BHS1975

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One last major shot of summer is likely forthcoming over the next few weeks, thereafter the tables are going to turn in favor of much cooler, fall-like weather (and not just because this is climatologically expected), rather with the current quasi-stationary west-central Pacific NINO "forcing", the response in the large-scale pattern favors ridging in early September, but big troughs late in September and into October over the E US. If this comes to fruition, we might get an early head start on fall this year, which I'm sure few would complain about, however the tropical Atlantic will probably heat up (couldn't get much quieter tbh) especially later in September.
So the door will be wide open for landfall during the peak.


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So the door will be wide open for landfall during the peak.


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Well the door will be wide open for the next 3 weeks or so, troughing over the E US and Atlantic Canada if the W-CP (NINO) forcing persists, favors recuravtures of TCs in the western Atlantic late in September into October. (climatology also becomes increasingly unfavorable throughout the season for landfalls because the AB high progressively weakens beginning in mid-late July (another reason why SAL decreases after July)), but this pattern will not protect us from storms that form in the Gulf, NW Caribbean, and may do little good for those that develop close to home off the SE US coast.
 
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I see fall tried to make an early visit this week. I had a high of 78 on Thursday under clear skies and full sun which is pretty amazing for the 3rd week of August. My low was 54 which was my lowest temp since late may. I’m so glad we are almost to fall which is my favorite time of the year since I know I’ll have 5 months of no heat and humidity.
 
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Despite the UHI effect, low temp records at Charlotte since the year 2000 have been much more frequent than at nearby major stations for some unknown reason. In this period of global warming, there have actually been slightly more low min records (84) than high max records (79) at Charlotte since 2000! It isn’t that the 79 is a low # because it actually is higher than what one would expect for only a 19 year period, which is consistent with global warming. It is the astoundingly high 84 record low mins during this GW period that is a big mystery. In contrast, both Raleigh and Lumberton have had a whopping 3 times as many record high maxes as record low mins since 2000, which is what one would expect to see due to GW:

- Raleigh: a whopping 99 record high maxes vs only 33 record lows.
- Lumberton: 69 record high maxes vs only 23 record lows

My hypothesis to try to explain the high # of Charlotte record lows since 2000 is that the station got changed either in the 1990s or early 2000s in some way that has made it more conducive to radiational cooling at night. Anyone know more about this?
Before they moved the sensor in 1998, Charlotte used to have the highest nighttime low temperatures in the region.
102606.jpg
 
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One last major shot of summer is likely forthcoming over the next few weeks, thereafter the tables are going to turn in favor of much cooler, fall-like weather (and not just because this is climatologically expected), rather with the current quasi-stationary west-central Pacific NINO "forcing", the response in the large-scale pattern favors ridging in early September, but big troughs late in September and into October over the E US. If this comes to fruition, we might get an early head start on fall this year, which I'm sure few would complain about, however the tropical Atlantic will probably heat up (couldn't get much quieter tbh) especially later in September.
I hope so. I remember back in the 70's walking through yards filled with leaves at Halloween. Trees were bare by Thanksgiving. Now it seems trees cling on to their leaves until December. November 2016 was quite surreal with trees still green following the October torch that year.
 

metwannabe

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Looks like we will back down from the 90s by Friday

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Looks like we flipped our luck over the last 14 days, that strip of precip minimum right through my backyard and the strip of maximum right close to your's....

 

SD

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93 glorious degrees right now but surprisingly I see a few thunderstorms have popped this afternoon.

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Yeah a little surprised as well but there is an axis of higher instability from rdu northward to around DC. Wouldn't be surprised to see a few more pop up and die off as the outflows move south.

Really starting to think Friday to Monday will bring some decent coverage and may leave a good part of the area with at least some rain. We may beat back highs as well and stick more in the 85-88 range those days.

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dsaur

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Before they moved the sensor in 1998, Charlotte used to have the highest nighttime low temperatures in the region.
View attachment 5695
I had a reading 20 miles away, about 5pm of 88, and my two remotes were reading 79 and 81. It's happened all summer. I can't remember a wall to wall cool summer like this one starting with a cold April. No mosquitoes until June, very few days in the 90's and no where near 100. I've not had one uncomfortable night all summer and I use a window fan, so that's saying something, and I've been here since 81. Close to twenty inches of rain is what did it, I'm convinced, all things being equal. There were some terrible high humidity days, but it never seemed hot like I'm used to. Maybe a day or two...or three.
And now the spiders are talking again, lol. Everywhere I go around here I plow thru massive web runners. 10 to 20 foot spans since early Aug. The last two times they impressed me with their web making like this, it hit near 0, and they didn't start those until fall...but those suckers were a hundred feet, or more, draping everywhere you looked...way, way up in the trees, all the way down to the ground. If this blends into that, starting so early...well... All I'm saying is you better find you some alpaca undies folks, if the websters get to saying something, lol. T
 

metwannabe

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I'm outside working and here a beautiful loud clap of thunder, look up to see this cloud and then reality check, looked at radar... Lol oh well


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SD

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I'm outside working and here a beautiful loud clap of thunder, look up to see this cloud and then reality check, looked at radar... Lol oh well


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2 days into this pattern and I hate it. Rain chances this weekend have gone into the toilet and we are probably 2 weeks out from seeing any type of change to cooler or wetter.

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2 days into this pattern and I hate it. Rain chances this weekend have gone into the toilet and we are probably 2 weeks out from seeing any type of change to cooler or wetter.

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I said this over the weekend, and I’m all Debbie Downer! Some people just can’t handle the truth!
 

SD

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I said this over the weekend, and I’m all Debbie Downer! Some people just can’t handle the truth!
If you had asked me even 2 days ago I was pretty set on the idea of this pattern starting to relax by 9/10 then a period of troughing and cooler shortly after. Now I'm beginning to think it'll be at least 9/15 before we see any breaking down and possibly the 9/20-25 period before any real troughs get into the east.

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If you had asked me even 2 days ago I was pretty set on the idea of this pattern starting to relax by 9/10 then a period of troughing and cooler shortly after. Now I'm beginning to think it'll be at least 9/15 before we see any breaking down and possibly the 9/20-25 period before any real troughs get into the east.

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If we get to about Sept 15-20 and there is still no real sign of this pattern breaking down, I might start having visions the fall season we had 2 years ago.
 
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If you had asked me even 2 days ago I was pretty set on the idea of this pattern starting to relax by 9/10 then a period of troughing and cooler shortly after. Now I'm beginning to think it'll be at least 9/15 before we see any breaking down and possibly the 9/20-25 period before any real troughs get into the east.

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Atleast we have some tropical activities to keep us busy, maybe!
 

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