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Pattern August Rush 2020

ryan1234 said:
I love Brad P. He's by far one of the best. By far. But his constant denial of Laura and how it could affect us is getting a little bit annoying. I don't know if because he's waiting to see where this thing goes or he just doesn't believe it will affect us, at all. He literally said we will get no rain from both systems, an hour ago...
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Yeah, I’ve followed brad for years and I’m not bashing him or nothing, because that’s one of my favorite mets, but assuming it’s gonna have 0 impacts is risky
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Yeah, I’ve followed brad for years and I’m not bashing him or nothing, because that’s one of my favorite mets, but assuming it’s gonna have 0 impacts is risky
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Agreed! My intent of this post was not to bash him as I said, he is one of the best! I have never seen a more committed met in my life. His love for weather and the fact that he spends sooo much time communicating on social media is such a rare thing for someone like him. He is conservative when it comes to his forecast so it makes sense. But yes, completely discarding any threats for us is risky. I'd imagine he will come around as long as trends continue.
 
several flood products out there tonight was western Wilkes now little further south. Radar doesn’t look impressive but Marco is adding to extremely heavy rates like tropical downpours
 
SD said:
It's amazing the Euro has almost nada S of the low. I call bs
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I personally think that if the remnant low stays south of the Ohio River, it will take on the classic look of a inland Gulf tropical cyclone... a noticeable circulation with a shield of heavy rain on the north and west sides and bands of rain and thunderstorms to the east and southeast. This could certainly set up severe weather ahead of the low through Tennessee and the Carolinas
 
BirdManDoomW said:
several flood products out there tonight was western Wilkes now little further south. Radar doesn’t look impressive but Marco is adding to extremely heavy rates like tropical downpours
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Chazwin said:
I personally think that if the remnant low stays south of the Ohio River, it will take on the classic look of a inland Gulf tropical cyclone... a noticeable circulation with a shield of heavy rain on the north and west sides and bands of rain and thunderstorms to the east and southeast. This could certainly set up severe weather ahead of the low through Tennessee and the Carolinas
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Yep, wouldn't take much to tap into these winds just off the surface. As @SD mentioned, sure does remind one of remnants of Erin back in 2007

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Shaggy said:
I remember Danny in 1995 as it restrgenthened over NC. Not saying this one will because it has a long track over land before getting here.
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I'm gonna go out on a limb here and say I get more wind/severe weather with this than I did with the center of Isaias moving directly over head. Now, to be fair, not hard to top that my max wind gust was around 25 (saw 33 mph about 10 miles from me) so....
 
BufordWX said:
Can’t even get that in Oklahoma this time of year. All I’ve seen since being here is a 10 minute shower and 2 drizzles. I do get the heat though. Gonna be near 100 on Friday.
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Well you will get to experience some nice winter storms, tornadoes outbreaks and massive cold fronts. I can’t wait for some pictures from you in the next few months.
 
metwannabe said:
I'm gonna go out on a limb here and say I get more wind/severe weather with this than I did with the center of Isaias moving directly over head. Now, to be fair, not hard to top that my max wind gust was around 25 (saw 33 mph about 10 miles from me) so....
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Dunno man they shifted us out of the cone.
 
NoSnowATL said:
Well you will get to experience some nice winter storms, tornadoes outbreaks and massive cold fronts. I can’t wait for some pictures from you in the next few months.
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He lives in Oklahoma not North Dakota. Does OKC even get that much snow ? I would imagine they get about as much snow as Chattanooga since they are at about the same latitude.
 
Dewpoint Dan said:
He lives in Oklahoma not North Dakota. Does OKC even get that much snow ? I would imagine they get about as much snow as Chattanooga since they are at about the same latitude.
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Well I don’t have to deal with the winter killing SE ridge nearly as much as the rest of you, and I know there were a couple of winter events around here the past year.
 
BufordWX said:
Well I don’t have to deal with the winter killing SE ridge nearly as much as the rest of you, and I know there were a couple of winter events around here the past year.
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Just checked and we average about 5 inches of snow here per year. That’s 2.5x what Buford averages per year.
 
Shaggy said:
Gfs way north again with the core of the remnants.
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Yeah up over northern Va, while the ICON is right along or just north of the Va/NC border. Also looks to drag a nice squall line through here, curious to see what the Euro shows.
 
Blacksburg AFD going with the euro track on the Virginia border. Tornadoes, flash flooding even tho it’s moving fast, ground is too wet. They even called yesterday a PRE EVENT with Marco that brought isolated flooding and wind damage up this way. Pretty good forecasting team they have
 
Shaggy said:
Gfs way north again with the core of the remnants.
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metwannabe said:
Yeah up over northern Va, while the ICON is right along or just north of the Va/NC border. Also looks to drag a nice squall line through here, curious to see what the Euro shows.
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So you have the icon/euro/uk not shearing and elongating the remnants into a positively tilted trough while the north american models do. Really riding the fence here, the subtropical ridge is fairly flat and more W-E oriented and the system will want to turn N then almost due E rounding the western edge. With the shortwave trough skirting across the northern tier you can see how easily it could start to interact then begin to elongate and shear the vorticity. To me the impacts on our area are fairly wide ranging from almost nada to a robust line of storms with a lot of wind reports and maybe a weak tornado to if the circulation stays far enough south and goes directly overhead maybe a narrow band of high rain totals along with tstorm wind concerns
 
SD said:
So you have the icon/euro/uk not shearing and elongating the remnants into a positively tilted trough while the north american models do. Really riding the fence here, the subtropical ridge is fairly flat and more W-E oriented and the system will want to turn N then almost due E rounding the western edge. With the shortwave trough skirting across the northern tier you can see how easily it could start to interact then begin to elongate and shear the vorticity. To me the impacts on our area are fairly wide ranging from almost nada to a robust line of storms with a lot of wind reports and maybe a weak tornado to if the circulation stays far enough south and goes directly overhead maybe a narrow band of high rain totals along with tstorm wind concerns
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Not wishcasting here but I'd usually take the icon/euro/ukie combo on handling the H5 pattern better minus the ridiculous wind maps from the euro (those things are about as bad as NAM snow maps)
 
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