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Pattern April Thread

Downeastnc said:
Wink TX this afternoon.....you can file this under things you will never see in the SE anywhere

76 with a -29 DP
14
12:53​
Vrbl 510.00
Fair​
CLR76-2976351%NA7429.991012.5

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This has to be a world record of some kind.


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HurricaneSolomon said:
This has to be a world record of some kind.


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Click to expand...

These numbers are so mind boggling to me that I cant imagine it, I am not even sure what the record lowest RH value would be around here.....but I would think it would be hard press to be below 10-15% at least here in eastern NC....This is one of the comments in that twitter thread

 
Membah wen these maps showed below average temps across the entire eastern half of the country and south (minus Miami)? I Membah!

1650025911297.png

1650025978838.png
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
EPS controls evolution reminds me of the May 2021 ridge, that ridge gave us a cutoff scare but actually gave us 90F temps View attachment 117345View attachment 117346View attachment 117347
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Reminds me of April/May 18 where we went from cold in early April (saw snow here on 4/7) then we were in the low to mid 90s the first week of May (think I hit 95/96 that week), the enso progression is pretty similar as well. We may push into early summer here over the next few weeks with the tpv heading into Siberia and the jet moving moving poleward but the cutoff potential goes up as well as hybrid subtropical development if anything gets stuck under the potential subtropical ridge. The only concern I guess for our area is the low level flow getting veered out of the NE behind any system rounding the ridging and we get lol wudge
 
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Since 3/25, we've only had 1 day below 70*F, and that day was 69*F. Also, last freeze was on 3/11 (spot on with average).

Also, the latest freeze on record for DFW is 4/13/1997. So statistically, we should be home free from any more freezes.
 
Got down to 38 here this morning, NWS forecast was 44. Ready for the warm weather, bring on the outdoor activities.
 
Severe Risk with NO threat of tornadoes? In April? ?


W2MQ44NQ2VECZGCTXIFFQE2GDE.png
 
Wondering if todays Slight Risk will be extended further into the Memphis area? Looking at 12Z HRRR, it appears a nice line of thunderstorms will move through later this evening.
 
Iceagewhereartthou said:
I'm going to hug the GFS, it's much cooler, at least until April 30th when it shows an 83 at CLT. Long range Euro/EPS has been crap all year so I'm tossing for now!

gfs_z500aNorm_us_47.png
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GEFS (ridge) 398DFBE5-6C83-41F0-9FE5-5B26999F4751.png
CMCE (ridge along with the CMC)
D6B8F4E5-1FC7-4427-A94C-26F48E03779D.png
It’s worth noting the GFS has been caving each run, especially the 00z GFS, closer to the hot solutions ? A2781973-71F0-4ED1-8C38-72981718C8C6.png
 
Torchy! AD1A3977-9219-4822-8E5A-E83662DEB3A6.png
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
GFS still folding with a even stronger ridge so far this run ?? widespread 582dm View attachment 117362View attachment 117363
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Verbatim, the 12z GFS was actually noticeably cooler for much of the area on surface temps than the 6z. We're getting to the time of year that you are going to win out and I am going to lose, and there will be no escape, but I can still hope my way through parts of May for a cool down!

Here's the 18z for the 30th on surface temps, CLT had 83 on the 6z.

gfs_T2m_us_62.png
 
Is the 50% chance of morning rain a front? Like the one we just had, fizzler? We gotta finish a handicap ramp in morning, rain sleet snow or shine.. funny how i canvtrack flurries,time out etc. Regular rain another story.
 
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