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Pattern April Showers

But wait I got new development
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Yeah the prefrontal squall line is trying to form atm, the main frontal boundary is still back towards Oxford and Henderson
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In just over 24 hours of elapsed time, the op GFS went from the threat of historic April winter storm/cold rain Columbia/SE coast 2 days ago to the threat of DC area April historic snowstorm in yesterday's runs. Today's 6Z GFS hints at the north trend resuming. Will the prior north trend resume in earnest or not? If I were a betting man, I'd bet on enough further north trend over next 3 days to take DC outside of the historic April snow threat. But if it doesn't resume, April snow history may be made at DC this weekend. They have received no more than 0.6" of snow in an entire April in over 90 years! Marietta, GA, got way more than that in April of 1987! But again, I'm predicting no historic DC snow due to north trend resumption.

Based on the 12Z Euro, the northward trend has resumed and is no surprise to me. Whereas DC was near the heart of an historical April snow on the 0Z, the 12Z, with its further north surface low, has DC on the southern edge of significant snow. I'm expecting further north adjustments over the next 3 days, which should take away big snow chances from DC. Keep in mind, however, that only 0.6" is the heaviest April snow there since 1925.
 
I had a high of 79 yesterday and I’m sitting at 46 degrees as of 1:33 pm today. Multiple hard Freezes are due over the next 4-5 days which will do a number on sensitive vegetation.
 
Cold Monday hot yesterday cold today hot again by friday then cold again Saturday

About ready to pick one :p
 
Yikes, if the 12km NAM even came anywhere close to verifying certainly could get very interesting Saturday afternoon/evening in central NC. If the surface low tracks over or to the north of the region, there's definitely a legitimate severe threat particularly from wind damage and isolated tornadoes. It is the LR NAM of course so buyer beware, but synoptically it's not all that different from the Euro & GFS suites.
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I was bored the other day & decided to play around w/ data from the Tornado history project and looked at all tornadoes in NC since 1950. There's an intriguing bi-modal distribution to our tornado climatology w/ a peak in Apr-May near the tail end of the cold season and a secondary peak in early-mid September corresponding to the peak of the hurricane season and when we often begin to see fall cold fronts penetrate into the deep south. (Note the tornadoes per day doesn't represent the average number per year, but the averaged sum from all years since the mid 20th century).
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Bummer this weekends wave tracks to far north but even so Saturday could be a wild day as Webber pointed out. The 18z GFS temperature drop on Saturday afternoon is crazy.

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The 18z run had more prefrontal convection that quelled the cross-frontal temperature change but the 12z had absolutely absurd 3-hourly changes in the Triangle and areas just to the SE. Goldsboro for example dropped 43F in 3 hours...

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Per the 12Z model consensus, a wx related delay is likely for at least a short time Saturday afternoon in the 3rd round of the Masters. However, the 4th round looks great with dry and much cooler than normal.
How bout that par 3 today. 3 oldtimers playing, 1 winning it out right. But the highlight of the day was the Golden Bears grandson still in HS, caddying for grandpa and getting to hit the tee shot on #9 and Aced it.
 
I just moved to Charlotte from Birmingham.. I've been here for a week and two storm systems have totally dissipated before they got to the Charlotte area and they were very robust for Birmingham and Atlanta.. is it normal for storm systems to shrink by the time they get to North Carolina? Just curious..
 
I just moved to Charlotte from Birmingham.. I've been here for a week and two storm systems have totally dissipated before they got to the Charlotte area and they were very robust for Birmingham and Atlanta.. is it normal for storm systems to shrink by the time they get to North Carolina? Just curious..
Yes, it is. Normally, we don't get the instability that areas farther south and west get. A lot of times we are spared by a wedge of cold air trapped east of the mountains. Don't worry, things will get more interesting for us a little later in the month and on into May.
 
I just moved to Charlotte from Birmingham.. I've been here for a week and two storm systems have totally dissipated before they got to the Charlotte area and they were very robust for Birmingham and Atlanta.. is it normal for storm systems to shrink by the time they get to North Carolina? Just curious..

What did you expect? If AL is the heart of dixie, that makes NC like Arkansas, the armpit.
 
Temps better fall in a hurry the next 6 hours if theres going to be a freeze in many of the areas under a Freeze Warning. At 1am, Rome is at 45, Cartersville 44, and Dalton 43.
 
You're not supposed to get elevated mixed layers like this outside of traditional tornado alley in the Great Plains. Pretty crazy to see one being advected in over NC on Saturday on the 3km NAM
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