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Pattern April Showers (1 Viewer)

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#9
Shouldn’t have much severe to worry about if the temperature forecasts hold up the way they are looking now. Winterish spring won’t let go.
Winterish spring can only hold off severe for so long. We eventually reach a point usually sometime in April (sometimes May) where big cold shots can be your biggest enemy if you don't like severe weather
 
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#10
The longer this goes on into April, the more uncertain I become whether this configuration will be beneficial or a detriment to severe weather, we had the outbreak in AL in a pattern loaded w/ cold...
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GaWx

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#12
Winterish spring can only hold off severe for so long. We eventually reach a point usually sometime in April (sometimes May) where big cold shots can be your biggest enemy if you don't like severe weather
This makes sense. I'd think that a cold spring would often mean more of a delay but not denied spring severe season. So, perhaps May this year will be more active than the typically most active month of April and June may be more like a typical May if this chilly pattern were to continue??
 
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#13
Yeah that doesn’t necessarily scream severe outbreak unless you’re on the I-4 corridor in Florida.
We had a sizeable outbreak in an even colder pattern in northern Alabama this previous week, the averages for most of the south in early April are in the 70s, slightly below average temps doesn't preclude severe at this time of the year necessarily up to I-40 but yes I'd agree to a point that it's not ideal by any stretch of the imagination
 
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#14
This makes sense. I'd think that a cold spring would often mean more of a delay but not denied spring severe season. So, perhaps May this year will be more active than the typically most active month of April and June may be more like a typical May if this chilly pattern were to continue??
Most of our severe weather events in the front half of the season lack CAPE but have plenty of shear while as we get later into the year towards May and June, we tend to have plenty of CAPE but the jet stream and associated shear is focused well to our NW that it becomes a limiting factor. Based on the SPC's sig TOR climo, the most favorable intersection of both CAPE and shear is around mid April in the southeastern US and of course May in the southern plains. Thus I think it's reasonable to assume that somewhere in/around the 3rd week of April or so, which thereafter our sig TOR climo starts to fall as shear often becomes limiting. Therefore, if we have a cold pattern in place w/ the jet stream displaced further south, it actually can be favorable to severe weather and tornadoes here instead of a hinderance as it is in a good part of Feb/Mar minus perhaps the Gulf coast. If this pattern persists another 3 weeks or so (give or take a week), that's when I'd estimate a chilly pattern more often turns against us rather than for us. Every year is obviously different and the intensity, longevity, and breadth of intruding arctic air masses matter a lot too but this is what our long-term climo suggests. Regardless, I'm all for keeping the heat and humidity at bay a little longer.
 

SD

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#24
Webb,
Summer's coming ... are you sure you've had enough? LOL
Your Friend,
Phil
I think it's more about just being near normal. This month has been pretty cold -6.8 5 days at normal or above 5 highs of 60+ and only 1 day of 70+. I'm not sure anyone is looking for summer temps just some warm days

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pcbjr

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I think it's more about just being near normal. This month has been pretty cold -6.8 5 days at normal or above 5 highs of 60+ and only 1 day of 70+. I'm not sure anyone is looking for summer temps just some warm days

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Never mind ... :(
 
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ForsythSnow

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#26
Simple. It's hour 222, bound to change drastically. Let's watch it warm up because it's spring. I'm sure you don't want a 4th dessert after 2 was enough nor does anyone else want NC to have more. I'm ready for some warmer weather but not tornadoes and hurricanes. Definitely not after last year.
 
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#27
LOL...yeah unfortunately if everyone gets their wish...it could mean that you're the casualty of it because you flirt with the 90 degree mark.

I think I'm sick of it though too, sorry. When your coldest days are gray, damp, or windy (like last week), and in my case, dealing with sudden changes, you tire of it. I'm ready for consistent high 60s-mid 70s temps.
 

pcbjr

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LOL...yeah unfortunately if everyone gets their wish...it could mean that you're the casualty of it because you flirt with the 90 degree mark.

I think I'm sick of it though too, sorry. When your coldest days are gray, damp, or windy (like last week), and in my case, dealing with sudden changes, you tire of it. I'm ready for consistent high 60s-mid 70s temps.
I am taking a week off to sit on the lower Big Bend Gulf and do whatever the Gulf tells me ... Enjoy all the whatever and I'll be positively quiet for the duration ... :confused:

But before signing off, for the record, I'll take a damp, cloudy, cool, miserable day over any of the upcoming 90º & itchy humidity, any time ... ;)
 
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