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Pattern April Showers

I don't wanna seem like I'm bill belicheck here and just am always looking a play ahead, but I'll be honest if there's heavier precipitation a stronger low offshore w/ more CAA and we hit the diurnal cycle, who knows.
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Webberweather53 said:
I don't wanna seem like I'm bill belicheck here and just am always looking a play ahead, but I'll be honest if there's heavier precipitation a stronger low offshore w/ more CAA and we hit the diurnal cycle, who knows.
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With a column like that? I'd have a better chance of seeing wintry weather from this first system than this other one here doing anything over NC. Here's a Raleigh sounding, and look at the temps and moisture.
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ForsythSnow said:
With a column like that? I'd have a better chance of seeing wintry weather from this first system than this other one here doing anything over NC. Here's a Raleigh sounding, and look at the temps and moisture.
nam_2018040618_084_35.89--78.46.png
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I'm well aware that verbatim this is not favorable to snow. What I'm actually saying here is if you have a) more lift and adiabatic expansion in the column, it'll cool, b) more heavy precipitation >>> more melting in the low-mid levels which cools the column c) a stronger low offshore which leads to greater height falls, more precipitation, more low-level CAA and lift, the column cools and you get a marginally conducive environment that could support wintry precipitation especially if it comes during the overnight hours. It doesn't seem likely to happen at the moment but if any one of these is realized the chances will certainly increase to legitimately above 0.
 
SD said:
We can't buy blocking like this in the cold season but we are the best at it during the spring
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as always SD your are dead on target. 3 months ago I would break out the champagne glasses for this.
 
Avalanche said:
as always SD your are dead on target. 3 months ago I would break out the champagne glasses for this.
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6z was a classic -nao by the end of the run. Looking likely we finish April below normal now.

I would keep an eye on the 15th-20th for severe weather. The system around the 15th is interesting but dynamics may be removed too far northwest and we see a dying qlcs moving through
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60 degrees yesterday and now I’m sitting at 37 degrees at 1:25pm on April 7th. Oh yeah and it snowed pretty heavily this morning easily making it the latest in the season that I’ve seen moderate to heavy snowfall. A plus for this winter without a doubt.
 
SD said:
6z was a classic -nao by the end of the run. Looking likely we finish April below normal now.

I would keep an eye on the 15th-20th for severe weather. The system around the 15th is interesting but dynamics may be removed too far northwest and we see a dying qlcs moving through
b931d8202c7d1cc370478330b66f899a.jpg


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We can't buy a -NAO during the winter, but in the Spring, we can't ever get rid of one. Funny how it works
 
If the EPS trade wind forecast thru the end of April verifies, we'll have made big strides towards getting the table set for El Nino later this year (or even next year if one doesn't fully develop after the Equinox). The climatological probability of an El Nino, La Nina, or Neutral ENSO is approximately 30% in any given year, imo the odds of one this year are at least double that given what I'm seeing w/ the PMM, cool Atlantic MDR, and now this potential eastward extension of the West Pacific warm pool (which is already getting to that point now). I'll be honest, this is following the descriptions in literature of how +PMM events evolve towards El Ninos in the subsequent year almost to a T so far. We'll see how this evolves over the coming weeks but I like the direction we're headed in.



 
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