Wintry April Fools? (1-2) Surprise Storm

[Webberweather53]

Rgem weirdly blips my area becuase a snow “Island” develops on top of me, lol

The 0z RGEM is the only model (so far) in this current suite that didn't drastically lower QPF in/around Charlotte.

 

[Ethan80963]

The 0z RGEM is the only model (so far) in this current suite that didn't drastically lower QPF in/around Charlotte.

Also looks to be one of the only models that looks close to radar. In terms of the system it self.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

The 0z RGEM is the only model (so far) in this current suite that didn't drastically lower QPF in/around Charlotte.

So I should hug it, lolol

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

If it’s hour 12z on a model run what time is it here? 6?

 

[Webberweather53]

If it’s hour 12z on a model run what time is it here? 6?

We're 4 hours behind now after we sprung our clocks forward for spring, 12z would be 8am!

 

[Stormsfury]

For reference, it is indeed raining lightly in Charleston and Goose Creek... been doing so for the past couple of hours

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Hrrr is slowly improving, it’s just the matter of how cold it is allowing snow to develop

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Lol autocorrect/spellcheck thing needaaa chilllllll

 

[Snowflowxxl]

Pretty sure we had more snow to track in March and April this year than January and February! Smdh

 

[Webberweather53]

Apples-apples comparison of NWS composite reflectivity w/ a 1 hour 3z HRRR composite reflectivity forecast for 4z (12am eastern) shows reality is much wetter w/ more precipitation further north over the lowlands of SC. Ground truth from @Stormsfury also confirms that this precipitation which wasn't forecast to occur (yet) by the model has been actually reaching the ground. You should also notice the higher returns over Alabama where HRRR forecast nothing on composite reflectivity.

 

[TheBatman]

Apples-apples comparison of NWS composite reflectivity w/ a 1 hour 3z HRRR composite reflectivity forecast for 4z (12am eastern) shows reality is much wetter w/ more precipitation further north over the lowlands of SC. Ground truth from @Stormsfury also confirms that this precipitation which wasn't forecast to occur (yet) by the model has been actually reaching the ground. You should also notice the higher returns over Alabama where HRRR forecast nothing on composite reflectivity.

View attachment 18402

View attachment 18403

Yes it is true. Actually got a little rain in my backyard. (North Alabama).

 

[Ethan80963]

Precip looks to be ramping up along the gulf coast in Florida if that means anything.

 

[BirdManDoomW]

Eh nothing matters until the column is saturated in this dry air..if it even does. I don’t see a big difference in actual radar vs model output.

 

[BirdManDoomW]

Checking the evening soundings the PWAT value was under 0.2 for Greensboro NC. Ouch.

 

[Webberweather53]

 

[Ethan80963]

Radar should get pretty interesting soon

 

[LovingGulfLows]

I mean, the upper level disturbance is impressive. IMO, I still think the bigger thing to worry about is temps for Upstate SC/Piedmont NC..I think the moisture will be there. The vorticity of the ULL will be able to pull in more moisture, I mean, you can already see a cyclonic shape with the radar associated with the ULL(very comma-like). It's packing a punch and it hasn't really developed into one system yet.

 

[BirdManDoomW]

Looks interesting just north of Wilmington NC currently. A blueberry farmer called freaking out about the radiational cooling tonight per the NWS. I wonder if some sleet could fall there as the precip is approaching temps in the 30s.

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Also I think we are currently colder than expected ... Charlotte sitting at 36 .. I’m a little north east of the city .. probably 35 ish

Dew points around 24

 

[SimeonNC]

currently 39.6