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Severe April 8-12 2024

Right now, both GSP and the Blacksburg VA NWS offices seem to think we get severe weather and heavy rain Wednesday into Thursday. The GFS and Euro have strong signals for severe weather now according to GSP and RNK mentions rotating storms in their area. If nothing else a 55-60 knot low level jet could be tapped in stronger storms Thursday cause some damage.

Edit: The Raleigh office is not as confident in severe yet, because of a possible timing issue for one thing and getting split to the north and south for another. They do say things might be a little rough though if everything lined up right.
 
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PV reversal that began 1st week of March was into the top six all time. To little to late,but thats been the trigger for our cool spring
 
I'm a little surprised this thread isn't popping. I wouldn't be shocked to see the enh expanded and potentially upgraded in some areas of ms/al.

It'll be interesting to see the nature of this as time progresses alot of divergence and forcing may lead to a well developed mcs that chases cape and rides the theta e boundary cutting off the rain and severe threat in north ga and a part of SC/NC.
 
SD said:
I'm a little surprised this thread isn't popping. I wouldn't be shocked to see the enh expanded and potentially upgraded in some areas of ms/al.

It'll be interesting to see the nature of this as time progresses alot of divergence and forcing may lead to a well developed mcs that chases cape and rides the theta e boundary cutting off the rain and severe threat in north ga and a part of SC/NC.
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Maybe folks are getting tired of the severe threats turning into duds. MS and AL are usually good for severe weather, but there's a lot of crying wolf in NC, SC and GA lately.
 
NCSNOW said:
PV reversal that began 1st week of March was into the top six all time. To little to late,but thats been the trigger for our cool spring
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Cool spring? Where?

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Brick Tamland said:
Maybe folks are getting tired of the severe threats turning into duds. MS and AL are usually good for severe weather, but there's a lot of crying wolf in NC, SC and GA lately.
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We haven't had a legit threat here yet. We've had a couple of good kinematic days and a couple decent thermodynamic days but nothing that overlapped to 2 to really get hyped
 
SD said:
We haven't had a legit threat here yet. We've had a couple of good kinematic days and a couple decent thermodynamic days but nothing that overlapped to 2 to really get hyped
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Pretty much the same here. I keep waiting on the models to show a classic look, but no dice yet.
 
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One thing about the threat tomorrow that is sticking out is that meal/secondary low some of the models are forming over southern MS. This is the type of setup where for most of us the storm mode is messy with the main threat being the QLCS. In southern MS however, this is the type of event where you get a few supercells to really show out, especially if you get enhanced helicity from that secondary low.
 
Arcc said:
One thing about the threat tomorrow that is sticking out is that meal/secondary low some of the models are forming over southern MS. This is the type of setup where for most of us the storm mode is messy with the main threat being the QLCS. In southern MS however, this is the type of event where you get a few supercells to really show out, especially if you get enhanced helicity from that secondary low.
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I completely disagree with SPC's broad area of risk across the deep South, but that small area in southern MS is always juiced in this type of setup. You could go with a 6-8 county MOD risk bullseye, downgrading 1 level as you expand in 1 county rings.
 
SD said:
We haven't had a legit threat here yet. We've had a couple of good kinematic days and a couple decent thermodynamic days but nothing that overlapped to 2 to really get hyped
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You wouldn't know that by the way WRAL was acting with last week's "threat."
 
RoddyPiper said:
I completely disagree with SPC's broad area of risk across the deep South, but that small area in southern MS is always juiced in this type of setup. You could go with a 6-8 county MOD risk bullseye, downgrading 1 level as you expand in 1 county rings.
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I understand the larger risk area. There is a ton of wind shear associated with the system. Assuming instability gets far enough north, the QLCS could be quite strong. However in these setups the best instability normally doesn’t get as far north as models say.
 
Latest 12z HRRR for late tomorrow/early Thursday looks absolutely nasty for central AL with regards to the QLCS. Big time bookend vortex/bowing segment. Would be a much higher chance for wind and spin up tornadoes.

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Brick Tamland said:
The SPC reduced the severe threat here to a level 1. I know, shocking.
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Not really surprised. This setup is boom or bust for us and is so highly dependent on the evolution of convection to our SW. Given the amount of forcing, divergence and cape over us and to the south this setup on particular has a tendency to be self limiting since more often than not since deep convection and a mcs is likely which either #1 chokes out moisture transport or #2 sends a decaying mcs into the area early in the day leaving us too stable or with subsidence during peak heating. If we didn't have the organized area of storms or it was moving through later in the day the threat would be more substantial (see March 1984 for a similar but not perfect analog. When looking at the at days 2-5 I think it's much better to raise attention to it and back down versus waiting until day 2 to see the convective evolution to our SW then start sounding the alarm.

All of that said the severe risk isn't 0 for us and the area or rain incoming being early moving out would open the door for some scattered severe storms tomorrow afternoon with wind and some potentially higher than normal severe gusts being possible in the taller more mature storms.


On another note with the strong upper level system swinging through Friday with very cold air aloft any sustained updraft would have a chance to be a fairly prolific small hail producer. Dry air aloft though may limit the coverage and intensity
 
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