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Severe April 6-8th severe threat

Zander98al said:
Now spc analysis shows near 3000j around 2 o'clock for central alabama. ? the damage northwest of birmingham seemed to cause a lot of damage they closed some schools in that county because of it.
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I'd believe it. The cloud cover isn't really all that dense and it'll be burned off easily unless the Gulf MCS blows up westward but it's moving E pretty fast.
 
ForsythSnow said:
I'd believe it. The cloud cover isn't really all that dense and it'll be burned off easily unless the Gulf MCS blows up westward but it's moving E pretty fast.
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That isn't good because the best shear is forecast in that time frame unfortunately were instability is the highest. The sun is also trying to peek through the clouds here were im at in birmingham. Nws bham belowScreenshot_20190408-084502_Samsung Internet.jpg
 
As noted yesterday, south-west Virginia is still favored. 10 degrees warmer there than Wilkesboro NC. I believe storms there will throw debris clouds south into NC lowering our chances of discrete storms. A squall line will still likely form. Any discrete storms look brief in a 1-2 hour window near Greensboro NC before a more linear mode takes over. If short term models are correct. Wind and some hail likely over tornado.
 
Overall this setup definitely supports a slight risk and 2% tor threat. If we had about twice as much 0-1 SRH as what’s currently forecast by most of the CAMs, a little bit more low level shear, steeper mid-level lapse rates, & lower LCLs the tornado threat would be a big deal around here. I’ve seen worse produce a few isolated spin ups but damaging winds will be the primary threat with some semi-discrete modes possible in the Carolinas
 
Just a high, thin layer of clouds hanging on now. Looks like we're gonna get plenty of sun before the moisture arrives
 
Webberweather53 said:
Overall this setup definitely supports a slight risk and 2% tor threat. If we had about twice as much 0-1 SRH as what’s currently forecast by most of the CAMs, a little bit more low level shear, steeper mid-level lapse rates, & lower LCLs the tornado threat would be a big deal around here. I’ve seen worse produce a few isolated spin ups but damaging winds will be the primary threat with some semi-discrete modes possible in the Carolinas
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Hrrr has actually lowered dewpoints and shows 20 degree dewpoint/sfc temp depressions now with inverted Vs, your definitely not lying about the wind threat with storms, hail threat is lowering due to poor mid level lapse rates and HGZs have shrunk a bit, still with WBZ at 700 hPa May see some hailers
 
Cloudy here had some showers come through in north Alabama just now what's it looking like here ?
 
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