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Severe April 6-8th severe threat

After this event it looks like all eyes are on palm sunday ?
 
Snowflowxxl said:
Yep this "event" was a dud. Enhanced was probably a reach. Attention now turns to the weekend.
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the HRRR was garbage with this event at least in alabama and mississippi. It seems HRRR is bipolar; hits some events right on the nail and then other ones it completely misses the nail.
 
Some hail probably around a inch big falling in east alabama.Screenshot_20190408-203512_RadarScope.jpg
 
Man, we have gotten the rain tonight. Still coming down. Been almost nonstop since about 5 or so. Under a flood advisory.
 
Southwest Georgia up into central GA can’t let their guard down overnight. Not a slam dunk threat by any means but any tornado threat in the wee hours of the morning deserves special attention. Hopefully it doesn’t materialize but SPC has placed a sizeable 5% tornado area 2031DBBB-424A-4F3B-AFC2-C6CAEDC300A3.png
 
SPC definitely is uncertain but the idea is there. HRRR has storms firing overnight and moving north while maintaining a cellular look. Won’t be much instability to work with but as we saw this morning in Alabama there’s always a chance one or two storms get going and produce.

SPC:

“Finally, a small slight risk area is being added across parts of southeast Alabama, southwest Georgia, and the Florida Panhandle. The airmass across this region is currently stable, per latest observations -- and as indicated by the evening TLH RAOB which indicates overturning from earlier convection. However, low-level theta-e advection will likely occur across this area overnight, ahead of the upper system, in a synoptic setup that remains favorable for severe weather from a pattern recognition perspective. With several high-res CAMs indicating storm development after
midnight across this area, conditional severe weather risk -- though uncertain -- appears to warrant SLGT risk upgrade, with a few
locally damaging gusts and potential for a couple of tornadoes through the end of the period.”
 
Look...I don’t want a thread for every system that is going to bring a chance of spring storms. And after today, unless I’m under a PDS TOR warning I will take the SPC with a grain of salt.
 
BirdManDoomW said:
Look...I don’t want a thread for every system that is going to bring a chance of spring storms. And after today, unless I’m under a PDS TOR warning I will take the SPC with a grain of salt.
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The separate threads for each threat is the best way to keep things less confusing. If we kept everything in one thread it would get clutter up and confusing. Also SPC takes model data in consideration. They can’t help that the storms underachieve. For example this afternoon they release a mesoscale discussion for us and it was pretty much spot on. So just give them a chance. They are the messengers, so let’s not try to shoot them down. ?

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Getting a nice light show from these storms tonight. Very good sleeping/relaxing for sure. ?
 
@BirdManDoomW meant to also say I can see your point of view of things also. I am glad we are having this much conversation on severe weather this year. I enjoy a nice thunderstorm as long as people don’t get hurt. I hope this will spill on over to the tropical forum here in a few months.
 
Anybody got those pretty simulated radars/models for this afternoon?
 
Last night was a good start to the thunderstorm season. Had a couple of warnings, but didn't experience anything severe. Just had some impressive rain and thunder over a solid three hour period.
 
Tarheel1 said:
Anybody got those pretty simulated radars/models for this afternoon?
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All the short range models dried up. Wilmington NC has a slight chance...and maybe right below Charlotte NC. But even in those areas only 1-2 thunder showers were shown.
 
Hrrr ain’t good but it does shows a outflow boundary tapping into cold air aloft, steeper mid level lapse rates, allowing pulse convection to develop around CLT, but it’s cloudy outside still and yep, you know what that means, it means no-vection 22CDBA64-C958-441B-B5B0-656F61BC6952.png
 
SPC just downgraded the risk level. ------------- just said too many clouds and morning showers around. Highlighted Wilmington and Charlotte south as I alluded to this morning.
 
I just looked at the mesoanalysis and there’s actually 1000-1500 jkg of sfc CAPE that has developed this morning even with leftover convective debris, and clouds are actually starting to break up now
 
Can see that axis of better theta-E advection allowing SBcape to develop, I wonder how widespread these storms will be, seems like CLT area will have the best instability with a axis of CAPE since convective debris is clearing out
403A5D15-CDA8-4F08-AE60-DB2F3EB88B0E.jpeg4F8BE12C-139B-4CDA-A106-CC3DDC063C54.jpeg
 
Have had some morning thunderstorms today despite it being on the cooler side. I have my window open which may've contributed but the thunder was pretty loud a couple times. If it was in the afternoon with it being clear or partly cloudy first...

But man, when it clears up later as soon as the last of this rain wraps up, this humidity will be miserable.
 
@Webberweather53 final stand ? Looks a little bit more messy/widespread then it did before, looks like hailers are more likely with colder air aloft especially in the HGZ vs yesterday and steeper lapse rates today, no wonder why SHIPs are approaching 2
05DC31FA-40D0-4BB1-B8B3-0940195EC000.png442D0B17-C80F-4EC7-8573-714F094BBE9A.jpeg07DE503A-C86D-47A7-8BDF-6021ED008B34.jpeg
 
HRRR looks likes it’s doing better than the NAM. A thin line of storms could develop near Love Valley and sweep through Statesville NC. And another area to watch is around Southern Pines NC for a pulse storm.
 
Nice training south-west of GSP. Don’t think anyone thought they would be slow movers today. And direction has not been south-easterly just yet...
 
This is not the look you want to see, if you actually want to see thunderstorms! They are ANCHORED against the mountains, no movement and being held by SE flow! Ughh888BD028-D525-4B90-A226-6486AF3B3E9D.png
 
When you go with a birdman forecast:8F2DFA7F-E2B0-4262-BAF1-88D051F30674.png
 
Looking at the threat tomorrow in the plains. It's going to be a hailer, but there's a very thin area where there might be one tornado.
 
Golfball hail in Brevard, NCA977EFE9-EC01-487D-B327-44CCD46804DB.png
 
Crazy video coming out of Brevard NC. Winter wonderland.
 
The storms over the mountains are collapsing, wonder if any outflow boundaries will trigger new development down my way? Sun is fully out right now, first time all day
 
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