Pattern Another Angry August: Broiled, Baked, and Bone-Dry

Jimmy Hypocracy · Sunday at 11:16 PM

This is going to be amazing

jackendrickwx · Sunday at 11:43 PM

Jimmy Hypocracy said:
This is going to be amazing View attachment 173687

If a few things go right it could be cooler than that

NCSNOW · 2025-07-28T06:58:07-0400

August will average BN on temps when all is said an done.

tennessee storm · 2025-07-28T09:17:23-0400

NCSNOW said:
August will average BN on temps when all is said a done.

Believe that when I see that ….lol

SD · 2025-07-28T09:27:28-0400

NCSNOW said:
August will average BN on temps when all is said an done.

Id love it but i doubt it. We are back to the endless above normal pattern by the 6th

Brent · 2025-07-28T09:28:12-0400

NCSNOW said:
August will average BN on temps when all is said an done.

Glwt

As much as I want that it's still August. Summer won't be over anytime soon

GaWx · 2025-07-28T09:33:21-0400

NCSNOW said:
August will average BN on temps when all is said an done.

Being overdue doesn’t mean it’s likely to happen of course, but fwiw the SE is certainly overdue for a widespread BN temps August as the last was way back in 2014 and even moreso 2013 (vs 1991-2020 normals):

Aug 2014

Aug 2013

jackendrickwx · 2025-07-28T12:35:27-0400

This weekend is the most interesting thing we've had in a while, minus tracking oppressive heat. Looks like a slow moving front crosses much of the southeast/midatlantic early in the weekend and our much advertised slug of dryer, cooler air is confined to VA+north on Saturday before the departing 500mb trough can swing down a bit more into Sunday and our surface HP settles in the northeast to setup a CAD structure with a little more traditional low lvl drying and cooling. Before it seemed like we were relying on the cooler air from the north to keep things down Saturday, now it seems that we may be more looking for widespread cloud cover/showers along the interaction between the front and more southerly flow in the mid-upper levels.

jackendrickwx · 2025-07-28T12:51:48-0400

jackendrickwx said:
This weekend is the most interesting thing we've had in a while, minus tracking oppressive heat. Looks like a slow moving front crosses much of the southeast/midatlantic early in the weekend and our much advertised slug of dryer, cooler air is confined to VA+north on Saturday before the departing 500mb trough can swing down a bit more into Sunday and our surface HP settles in the northeast to setup a CAD structure with a little more traditional low lvl drying and cooling. Before it seemed like we were relying on the cooler air from the north to keep things down Saturday, now it seems that we may be more looking for widespread cloud cover/showers along the interaction between the front and more southerly flow in the mid-upper levels.

TLDR wudge

GoDuke · 2025-07-28T13:02:04-0400

Thread title made me hungry. Got a hankering for T-bone steak, with broiled shrimp and a baked potato.

NCSNOW · 2025-07-28T13:06:23-0400

SD said:
Id love it but i doubt it. We are back to the endless above normal pattern by the 6th

CFS Tanks us on 850's roughly 1st 10 days and last 10 days of August. Warm at the 850 level Aug10-20.
However if you throw in a Bastardi curveball, which is a cloud induced 1-2 day event from Tropics to mute Aug10-20th. And we might have a winner.

SD · 2025-07-28T13:32:28-0400

Its always possible some quirky ull gets stuck under the rising heights over the NE and SE Canada and we avoid the big warm but squeezing the heat toothpaste out of the west makes it hard to hold on to BN. This looks like our winter patterns recently right after big cold shots

Drizzle Snizzle · 2025-07-28T14:02:58-0400

Looks awfully wet over the next week.

FallsLake · 2025-07-28T17:05:44-0400

Heading to Boone this weekend. Looks like I'll be enjoying fall weather:

We are going over to Bristol Tennessee on Saturday to see the Braves play the Reds. Just hoping it stays dry enough for the game.

JHS · 2025-07-28T17:43:49-0400

Drizzle Snizzle said:
Looks awfully wet over the next week.View attachment 173698

Not happening. Maybe .50 up to 1 inch and then only in certain areas. Most of us will get .25 or less over the next week.

JHS · 2025-07-28T18:32:24-0400

The 18z GFS is delaying the cooldown. Now not cooling down until Saturday for many of us.

Bham 99 · 2025-07-28T18:40:05-0400

We need to add busted to the thread title

iGRXY · 2025-07-28T19:18:07-0400

JHS said:
Not happening. Maybe .50 up to 1 inch and then only in certain areas. Most of us will get .25 or less over the next week.

Says who?

NCSNOW · 2025-07-29T06:05:51-0400

JHS said:
The 18z GFS is delaying the cooldown. Now not cooling down until Saturday for many of us.

90 Thursday, 84 here Friday, 70's weekend. This is what's been advertised timing wise I thought. with 80% storms Thurs evening into Friday as transition takes place.

JHS · 2025-07-29T07:39:10-0400

iGRXY said:
Says who?

Well, the GFS has already cut these totals by 50-75% for many of us and it will probably cut them even more. Sat and Sun will not be nearly as cool as forecast either with much more sun. GSP's 90+ may just keep going.

weatherfide · 2025-07-29T07:51:37-0400

tennessee storm said:
Don’t get to excited just yet… seen several days early October get 90 degrees even… and daily averages keep on warming up as climate keeps getting warmer

Yeah, we gotta stop covering everything in concrete and asphalt. Move to the country, it's not getting warmer there, at least not the highs...lows however, they are inching up.

iGRXY · 2025-07-29T08:34:01-0400

JHS said:
Well, the GFS has already cut these totals by 50-75% for many of us and it will probably cut them even more. Sat and Sun will not be nearly as cool as forecast either with much more sun. GSP's 90+ may just keep going.

Well the GFS is not a good model so it holds zero weight. If you want to keep quoting it like it is, be my guest. But it's routinely off on temps and precip.

tennessee storm · 2025-07-29T08:36:02-0400

iGRXY said:
Well the GFS is not a good model so it holds zero weight. If you want to keep quoting it like it is, be my guest. But it's routinely off on temps and precip.

Euro has cut down on the rain totals also … so there s. That

SD · 2025-07-29T08:43:06-0400

Euro and cmc trying to develop a wave over the lol wudge and really spike espn totals. Haven't done that in the summer months in such a long time I'd be all in on it

Brent · 2025-07-29T08:49:17-0400

weatherfide said:
Yeah, we gotta stop covering everything in concrete and asphalt. Move to the country, it's not getting warmer there, at least not the highs...lows however, they are inching up.

Except we still haven't beaten the 1930s here even with all the concrete

weatherfide · 2025-07-29T10:04:22-0400

Brent said:
Except we still haven't beaten the 1930s here even with all the concrete

The 1930s were horrible.

NCSNOW · 2025-07-29T10:16:21-0400

Saturday afternoon per Euro

Over next 6 days per Euro