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Pattern Another Angry August: Broiled, Baked, and Bone-Dry

NCSNOW said:
August will average BN on temps when all is said an done.
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Being overdue doesn’t mean it’s likely to happen of course, but fwiw the SE is certainly overdue for a widespread BN temps August as the last was way back in 2014 and even moreso 2013 (vs 1991-2020 normals):

Aug 2014
IMG_4185.png

Aug 2013
IMG_4186.png
 
This weekend is the most interesting thing we've had in a while, minus tracking oppressive heat. Looks like a slow moving front crosses much of the southeast/midatlantic early in the weekend and our much advertised slug of dryer, cooler air is confined to VA+north on Saturday before the departing 500mb trough can swing down a bit more into Sunday and our surface HP settles in the northeast to setup a CAD structure with a little more traditional low lvl drying and cooling. Before it seemed like we were relying on the cooler air from the north to keep things down Saturday, now it seems that we may be more looking for widespread cloud cover/showers along the interaction between the front and more southerly flow in the mid-upper levels.
 
jackendrickwx said:
This weekend is the most interesting thing we've had in a while, minus tracking oppressive heat. Looks like a slow moving front crosses much of the southeast/midatlantic early in the weekend and our much advertised slug of dryer, cooler air is confined to VA+north on Saturday before the departing 500mb trough can swing down a bit more into Sunday and our surface HP settles in the northeast to setup a CAD structure with a little more traditional low lvl drying and cooling. Before it seemed like we were relying on the cooler air from the north to keep things down Saturday, now it seems that we may be more looking for widespread cloud cover/showers along the interaction between the front and more southerly flow in the mid-upper levels.
Click to expand...
TLDR wudge
 
SD said:
Id love it but i doubt it. We are back to the endless above normal pattern by the 6th
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CFS Tanks us on 850's roughly 1st 10 days and last 10 days of August. Warm at the 850 level Aug10-20.
However if you throw in a Bastardi curveball, which is a cloud induced 1-2 day event from Tropics to mute Aug10-20th. And we might have a winner.
 
Its always possible some quirky ull gets stuck under the rising heights over the NE and SE Canada and we avoid the big warm but squeezing the heat toothpaste out of the west makes it hard to hold on to BN. This looks like our winter patterns recently right after big cold shotsgem_z500a_us_29.png
 
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